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Tuesday October 15, 2013 - 10:33:08 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: UK CPI remains above BOE target; German ZEW Survey comes in mixed; focus remains on Washington to resolve debt ceiling EU Market Update: UK CPI remains above BOE target; German ZEW Survey comes in mixed; focus remains on Washington to resolve debt ceiling
Tue, 15 Oct 2013 5:20 AM EST

- Optimistic stance toward US budget and debt negotiations in Washington
- Sen Majority leader Reid privately offered a deal to the GOP that would raise the debt ceiling for 6 to 9 months and also delay the medical device tax
- RBA meeting minutes remaining squarely neutral, reiterating the Board is keeping the possibility of further cuts but any additional easing is not seen as imminent; AUD/USD at 3-month highs
- UK Sept CPI comes in a touch above expectations (2.7% vs. 2.6%e); still above BOE target
- Spain has solid Bill auction results; sold just above indicated range at lower borrowing costs and higher bid-to-covers
- Greece 13-week yield falls below 4% for first time since Feb 2011 at auction
- Germany Oct ZEW Survey mixed; Current Situation came in below both expectations and month ago reading

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Aug Final Industrial Production M/M: -0.9% v -0.7% prelim; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.2% prelim; Capacity Utilization M/M: -2.1% v +3.7% prior

- (DE) Germany Aug Import Price Index M/M: 0,1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -3.4% v -3.9%e
- (FR) France Sept CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e; CPI Ex Tobacco Index: 125.6 v 125.59e

- (FR) France Sept CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e
- (FI) Finland Aug Current Account: +40M v -140M prior
- (DK) Denmark Sept Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.3% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: -1.8% v -0.9% prior
- (CZ) Czech Aug Export Price Index Y/Y: +0.3% v -0.3% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.0% prior
- (CZ) Czech Sept PPI Industrial M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.5%e
- (HU) Hungary Aug Final Industrial Production M/M: 0.7% v 0.7% prelim; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9% prelim
- (EU) ECB 4.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 314M prior; 59.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 52.6B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.7% v +0.8% prior
- (NO) Norway Q3 Existing Home Prices Q/Q: -1.8% v -0.3%e
- (NO) Norway Sept Trade Balance (NOK): 21.7B v 28.8B prior
- (UK) Sept CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.6%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.0%e
- (UK) Sept RPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.2%e; RPIX (Ex Mort Interest.Payments Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.2%e; Retail Price Index: ## v 251.9e
- (UK) Aug PPI Input M/M: -1.2% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 2.2%e
- (UK) Aug PPI Output M/M: -0.1% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.3%e
- (UK) Aug PPI Output Core M/M: -0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.9%e
- (UK) Aug ONS House Price Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.4%e

- (IT) Bank of Italy Aug Public Finance Supplement: General Government Debt: 2.060T v 2.073T prior
- (DE) Germany Oct ZEW Survey Current Situation: 29.7 v 31.3e; Expectations Survey: 52.8 v 49.6e (highest since Apr 2010)
- (EU) Euro Zone Oct ZEW Survey Expectations Survey: 59.1 v 58.6 prior

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 4.57B vs. 3.5-4.5B indicated range in 6-Month and 12-Month Bills

- Sold 817M in 6-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.672% (lowest since April 2010) v 0.911% prior; Bid-to-cover: 5.88x v 3.7x prior; Max Yield: 0.980% v 0.945% prior; Tail: 0.8bps v 3.4bps prior
- Sold 3.754B in 12-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.961% v 1.367% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.05x v 1.85x prior; Max Yield: 0.680% v 1.390% v 1.278% prior; Tail: 1.9bps v 2.3 bps prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 1.625B vs. 1.25B indicated in 13-week bills; Avg Yield: 3.95% (lowest since Feb 2011) v 4.02% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.89x v 1.94x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 91.2B in 7-day Main Refi Tender at fixed 0.50%

Indices [Eurstoxx50 +0.30%, FTSE 100 +0.70% at 6,556, DAX +0.70% at 8,786, CAC-40 +0.6% at 4,249, IBEX-35 +0.50% at 9,745, FTSE MIB +0.30% at 18,974, SMI +1.1% at 8,015, S&P 500 Futures +0.10% at 1,706]

- Market Focal Points: Markets open slightly higher as US press outlets report that Senate officials are believed to be nearing a debt/budget agreement (yet to hear from the House of Representatives), DAX hits record high and EuroStoxx50 hits 2.5 year high, Miners gain on Rio Tinto's quarterly production report, Burberry declines following quarterly sales report and CEO change, Various European firms issue profit warnings (Nexans, SDL), Mixed German ZEW data

By Sector
- Industrials
[German automakers are broadly higher, as EU officials eased car emission rules (BMW BMW.DE +1.5%, Daimler DAI.DE +0.7%, Volkswagen VOW3.DE +0.70%), Deutz DEZ.DE +1.8% (broker commentary); Nexans NEXS.FR -12% (profit warning, rights offering), Balda BAF.DE -6% (CEO resigned)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Mecom MEC.UK +35% (raised outlook), Telford Homes TEF.UK +7% (raised outlook), RCS MediaGroup RCS.IT+4% (ended shareholder agreement), Casino CO.FR +3% (Q3 sales above ests); Burberry BRBY.UK -4% (new CEO), Kuehne & Nagel KNIN.CH (Q3 sales declined y/y)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Rio Tinto RIO.UK +2.5% (record Q3 iron ore production), Evraz EVR.UK +2.5% (asset sale)]
- Technology [SDL SDL.UK -15% (profit warning)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Technology +0.6%, Financials +0.4%, Telecom +0.4%, Basic Materials +0.4%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.4%, Consumer Cyclical +0.2%, Industrials flat; Utilities -0.7%, Energy -0.1%]

- China Vice Fin Min Zhu stated that China hoped US to address its fiscal crisis but was confident it would not default on its principal.
The focus was on interest payments and stressed that the US should make interest payment its key consideration. US must raise its debt ceiling so there would be no default and maintain its good economic recovery
- IMF's Lipton stated in the German press that the: US should not underestimate the consequences of its escalating budget dispute. International money markets might be severely shaken and perhaps at a standstill if there was no agreement on Oct 17th. Financial markets would doubt US solvency no matter what the reality was
- BOE's Weale at Parliamentary committee: Eurozone economic crisis was the largest risk facing the UK. There were downside risk to inflation
- Cyprus President Anastasiades: Reiterates it will implement its bailout terms - comments following meeting with EU President Van Rompuy
- EU Finance Ministers (EcoFin) commented ahead of meeting in Luxembourg
- German Fin Min Schaeuble: Bank resolution mechanism must not violate treaty. EU Commission plan for SRM did not have majority support and needed compromise
- Sweden Fin Min Borg: ECB bank assessment hinged on credible backstops for asset quality reviews (AQR); Sweden had such a backstop in place for its banking sector
- Spain Fin Min de Guindos: Compromise was possible on Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM); examining alternatives that could be feasible from a legal point of view; external evaluation of banks would give a lot of credibility
- Luxembourg Fin Min Frieden: Confident SRM deal was possible before EU elections
- German ZEW Economists: Financial market experts remain optimistic. Greater impact of debate on debt ceiling in the US is not visible
- China State Council reiterated its stance to reduce overcapacity
- EU Official: Iran present proposal on nuclear dispute at P5+1 meeting in Geneva (in line with press speculation)

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX participants noted that a more risk positive environment was now likely to develop in the near term as signs of progress towards an agreement emerged regarding the US debt ceiling. The overall price action was fairly muted and still contained in well-established ranges.
- The GBP saw a brief bid after Sept CPI data came in just above expectations (and remained well above the BOE target). The GBP/USD tested the 1.6000 level in the aftermath of the inflation release
- The EUR/USD was at session lows after German ZEW data came in mixed. Current Situation came in below both expectations and month ago reading. The EUR/USD moved towards 1.3500 after the data with 1.3480 seen as the next level of key hourly support
- The AUD currency held onto its gains from the Asian session and at 4-month highs of 0.9547. RBA meeting minutes remained squarely neutral. It reiterated that the Board was keeping the possibility of further cuts but any additional easing was not seen as imminent

Political/In the Papers:
- Eurogroup's Dijjeslbloem: Ireland and Spain exit of bailout will be discussed in November; Portugal exit be under discussion in Q1 2014, Portugal still faces large challenges. - Greece economy is being rebalanced, Greece aiming for a primary surplus; Eurogroup to focus on Greece's 2H 2014 financing needs in December or January. Still no support in Eurogroup for a Greek debt haircut. There is widespread support for the bail in sequence right now.
-(DE) German CDU/CSU party said to have agreed to hold a third round of discussions on forming a coalition with center-left SPD this Thursday - press citing Merkel's party source; Still planning to hold 2nd round of talks with Greens on Tuesday.
- (GR) Greece Fin Min: There is no significant financing gap for 2014 as the gap stands at 10.5B for 2014-2015; on track to reach primary surplus
-(IT) Italy draft 2014 budget targets deficit to GDP ratio of 2.5% would raise income tax in financial investments to 22% from 20%; Budget plan would also impose a permanent prohibition on local govt derivatives.
-(PT) Portugal Sec for Fiscal Affairs: Govt has presented a plan for reform of corporate taxation structure to parliament; To cut corporate tax rate to 23% in 2014 from 25% presently, and further to 17-19% in 2016.
-Summary of Senate budget talks: The Senate proposal provides for the reopening of the government through Jan 15 (at the current sequester levels funding) and raising the debt limit to Feb 15th. Also, the proposal on extending debt limit through Feb 15 could require the Treasury be prevented from using any further "extraordinary measures" to extend the debt limit beyond that date. The proposal also provides for longer-term budget talks with the aim of reaching an agreement by Dec 13th.
-(US) Certain Republicans in the House of Representatives could show resistance toward the budget/debt deal proposed by the Senate - US financial press; Most House Republicans have declined to comment on the Senate proposal as they are waiting for the measure to become final.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
-(IR) P5+1 talks with Iran in Geneva
- (PT) Portugal Govt possible budget introduced to Parliament
- (PE) Peru Aug Economic Activity Y/Y: No est v 4.5% prior
- (PE) Peru Sept Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.6% prior
- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell combined 2.2B in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Months Bills
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Aug Trade Balance: No est v 3.2B prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit tender
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Aug Retail Sales M/M: 0.2%e v 1.9% prior; Y/Y: 4.8%e v 6.0% prior; Retail Sales Broad Y/Y: -1.7%e v +3.7% prior
- 08:00 (IS) Iceland Sept Unemployment Rate: No est v 4.0% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Sept CPI M/M: +0.1%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 1.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) Oct Empire Manufacturing: 7.00e v 6.29 prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Aug Trade Balance: No est v 2.1B prior
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Sept Existing Home Sales M/M: No est v 2.8% prior
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Sept Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.3% prior; House Price Index: No est v 159.12 prior
- 9:00 (PL) Poland Sept YTD Budget Balance Level (PLN): No est v -26.8B prior Budget Balance Performance: No est v 75.3% prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: No est v 207.1B prior
- 09:00 (EU) Greece PM Samaras speaks at European Parliament in Brussels
- 09:00 (EU) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov speech in Brussels
- 09:10 (EU) EU's Reding Press Conference in Stockholm
- 10:00 (EU) EU Finance Ministers (EcoFin) press conference
- 10:00 (US) Fed's Dudley on monetary policy
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel's bloc holds exploratory talks with Greens
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $4.75-5.75B in Notes
- 11:00 (UR) Ukraine to Sell Bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $65B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 11:30 (IL) Israel Sept CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.3% prior
- 12:30 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble in Frankfurt
- 13:00 (EU) ECB's Praet (Belgium) in Munich
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept CPI M/M: 0.8%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 10.5%e v 10.5% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 13.8% prior




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