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Tuesday October 15, 2013 - 15:47:33 GMT
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The House Republicans have emerged from their morning caucus meeting with proposals of their own that slightly modify the Senate plan, while markets remain in a holding pattern after recovering from e US Market Update: House and Senate GOP Strive to Close a Deal
Tue, 15 Oct 2013 11:27 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IE) Ireland Aug Trade Balance: 3.3B v 3.2B prior
- (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e Oct 11th: w/w -0.7%; Y/Y: +1.0%
- (BR) Brazil Aug Retail Sales M/M: 0.9% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 6.2% v 4.8%e; Retail Sales Broad Y/Y: -0.8% v -1.7%e
- (IS) Iceland Sept Unemployment Rate: 3.8% v 4.0% prior
- (PL) Poland Sept CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.1%e
- (US) Oct Empire Manufacturing: 1.52 v 7.00e
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Oct 11th: +3.2% y/y, w/e Oct 11th: -1.4% m/m
- (BE) Belgium Aug Trade Balance: -1.0B v 1.5B prior
- (CA) Canada Sept Existing Home Sales M/M: 0.8% v 2.8% prior
- (CA) Canada Sept Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.3% prior; House Price Index: 159.12 v 159.12 prior
- (PL) Poland Sept YTD Budget Balance Level (PLN): -29.6B v -26.8B prior Budget Balance Performance: 83.2% v 75.3% prior

- The House Republicans have emerged from their morning caucus meeting with proposals of their own that slightly modify the Senate plan, while markets remain in a holding pattern after recovering from earlier losses. As of writing, the DJIA is flat, the S&P500 is down 0.34% and the Nasdaq is up 0.24%

- The House leadership did not respond positively to the Senate plan to resolve the crisis, but their retort seeks only to modify the proposal, not materially change it. In a caucus meeting this morning, the leadership floated their own plan, including a CR funding extension to January 15th, a debt ceiling hike to February 7th, a ban of the Treasury using extraordinary measures to extend the debt limit, income verification for Obamacare subsidies, a two-year suspension of the medical device tax and a requirement for Congress and cabinet members to accept Obamacare health plans with no subsidies (the so-called 'Vitter amendment'). Most of these components are either the same as the Senate plan or were part of the original Senate plan proposed by Senator Collins over the weekend. Reports suggest that the House could vote on this bill today.

- The mixed October ZEW survey in Germany knocked down the euro overnight, with EUR/USD dropping from 1.3565 to one-week lows around 1.3485 by the US cash open, despite the softer Empire Manufacturing data. The USD Index hit a one-month high. A steeper break in EUR/USD could open a downside test of the pivotal 1.3400 level.

- Talks on Iran's nuclear program kick off today in Geneva, after a six-month hiatus, and Tehran is betting on an easing of sanctions. The two-day meeting is seen as the best chance in years to defuse the standoff over Iran's nuclear ambitions that has heightened the risk of a new Middle East war. WTI crude is in the $102 handle this morning, up slightly. Note that spot gold slipped lower overnight, with the price dropping to early July lows around $1,252 before rising higher in the US session.

- Fed hawk Fisher said he does not expect QE bond buying to be reduced at the October FOMC meeting, warning that markets were too delicate at the moment to begin the taper. Fisher also said that personally he would not consider tapering a good idea in October due to the current fiscal standoff, and also warned that US economic data will be sloppy for the next couple of months due to the shutdown. The yield on the 10-year UST rose overnight (after trading was closed yesterday), and is around 2.7% presently.

- Quarterly earnings were seen out of Johnson & Johnson, Citigroup and Coca-Cola this morning, and shares of all three are barely positive as of writing after some big moves. JNJ saw pretty solid results, with share up as much as 1.5% earlier. Coca-Cola met expectations and sustained worldwide volume growth. But Citi was a dog, with North America retail banking revenues down 35% on drop in mortgage origination revenue and fixed income revenue down 26% y/y. The CFO commented that he could not think of a significant Citi business that saw revenue growth y/y in the quarter.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $65B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 11:30 (IL) Israel Sept CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.3% prior
- 12:30 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble in Frankfurt
- 13:00 (EU) ECB's Praet (Belgium) in Munich
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept CPI M/M: 0.8%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 10.5%e v 10.5% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 13.8% prior




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