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Tuesday October 15, 2013 - 19:19:25 GMT
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NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR

NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR

Imre Speizer


Optimism gave way to disappointment overnight. Whereas earlier indications from US politicians were of a looming agreement, none was reached. US equities thus dropped from a multi-week high, the S&P500 currently down 0.6%.



Market Wrap:

Global market sentiment: Optimism gave way to disappointment overnight. Whereas earlier indications from US politicians were of a looming agreement, none was reached. US equities thus dropped from a multi-week high, the S&P500 currently down 0.6%. The US dollar largely held its gains though. A NY regional manufacturing survey disappointed, adding to the NY session gloom.

Interest rates: US 10yr treasury bond yields initially slipped from a 3-week high of 2.74% to 2.69% but rebounded in NY to 2.73%. 1mth treasury bill yields initially fell from 0.25% to 0.15% on expectations a deal was imminent but then surged to 0.34% on the disappointment. Fed hawk Fisher sounded less hawkish than usual, ruling out an October taper, but that’s fully priced by the market.

Australian 3yr government bond yields (implied by futures) ranged sideways between 3.14% and 3.20% (the latter matching the March 2013 high), while the 10yr yield ground higher from 4.14% to 4.19%.

Currencies: The US dollar index rose by around 0.5% during the London morning, making a one-month high, and then ranged sideways. EUR fell from 1.3571 to 1.3480 – a 2-week low – during the London morning and then consolidated. A German investor confidence survey was mixed – expectations rising but current assessment falling. USD/JPY traded sideways in a 98.37-98.70 range. AUD initially extended recent gains to 0.9548 – a four-month high – but slipped from mid-morning London to 0.9513. NZD fell from 0.8400 to 0.8359. The fortnightly dairy auction saw spot whole milk powder prices fall 2.4%. AUD/NZD ground higher from 1.1346 to 1.1392.

Economic Wrap:

US NY Fed factory index fell from 6.3 to 1.5 in Oct. That is the lowest reading since May for the general business conditions headline (and was closer to our –2 forecast based on fiscal impasse/government shutdown concerns than the 7 consensus). The detail was not so bad though: orders rose from 2 to 8, shipments eased from 16 to 13 and jobs from 8 to 4. This index, the Philly Fed and Richmond Fed surveys were either running at or below zero, or plunged to below 0, at the time of the last debt ceiling impasse in Q3 2011, so today’s result was a no-brainer really.

Canadian existing home sales rose 0.8% in Sep, their seventh straight rise after a soft patch of sales around the turn of the year. House prices re-accelerated to a 2.7% yr annual pace in Sep, according to Teranet/National Bank, back around the pace they were running at the start of this year.

German ZEW analysts’ survey rose a further 3.2 pts to 52.8 in Oct, the highest in three and a half years. However the current index slipped modestly and remains well below its mid 2011 and mid 2012 peaks, and we know how wrong they were then!

UK CPI held steady at 2.7% yr  in Sep, and the core rate lifted from 2.0% to 2.2% yr; the ONS house price measure accelerated from 3.3% to 3.8% yr, its fastest since 2010; however core output prices slowed from 1.0% to 0.7% yr.

Market Outlooks:

Event risk today: The local highlight should be NZ Q3 CPI (Westpac expects 0.9% qoq, consensus 0.8%). Australia has the Westpac leading index.  The US has a housing market update plus the Beige Book of regional economic conditions.

NZD/USD 1 day: Could slip to 0.8350 today but still looks positive multi-day.

NZD/USD 1-3 month: The Fed’s surprising delay in tapering QE should support NZD/USD during the next few months. NZ fundamentals push in the same direction so NZD/USD towards 0.86 is expected.

AUD/USD 1 day: Could slip to 0.9485 today but still looks positive multi-day.

AUD/USD 1-3 month: The Fed's "no taper" decision suggests the AUD should remain bid with a possible move to 0.9600. However, the US debt ceiling/ Government shutdown issue remains a drag.

AUD/NZD 1 day: Likely to test 1.1350 below for a move towards 1.1300.

AUD/NZD 1-3 month: The downtrend since March has stalled, and a sizeable upward correction (to 1.16+) is now possible. However, longer term relative fundamentals (e.g. RBA easing further vs RBNZ hiking) favour the NZD.

NZ swap yields 1 day: In response to changes in US and Australian bond yields overnight (see above) the 2yr should open up unchanged at 3.57% and the 10yr should unchanged at 5.10%.

NZ  swap yields 1-3 month: The uptrends since June 2012 remains intact. By Dec-2013 the 2yr could reach 3.80% based on NZ’s improving fundamentals and eventual RBNZ tightening in 2014.




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