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Tuesday October 15, 2013 - 20:17:56 GMT
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Budget talks mess. Empire PMI weak. German ZEW mixed
|Budget talks mess. Empire PMI weak. German ZEW mixed|
16 October 2013 00:00 gmt
| CALENDAR: Far East: NZ- CPI, JP- Ind Output. Europe: GB- Jobs, EZ- Trade, CPI (HICP). North America: US- Mortgages, API|
||JGB 0.67% +1bp
||Asia Close Higher|
||Bund 1.91% +5bp
||U.S. 2.71% +2 bp
||North America Lower|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- Industrial Output, GB- Employment, EZ- CPI (HICP)
- Late in the U.S. afternoon, no agreement on the U.S. budget appears to be in sight. We still assume an agreement will be reached, but sometimes it takes a crisis to force politicians to work together. Ultimately, the odds still favor some sort of a deal involving a postponement of major decisions on the budget until early 2014. If no movement in the direction of an agreement is clear, major rating agencies could mark down the the U.S. credit rating at any time. That would undermine stock and bond prices and the USD.
- U.K. September inflation data were steady and raise the question of how much longer can the Bank of England run its ultra easy monetary policy. German ZEW data were mixed, but saw an outsized reaction in the EURUSD pair likely because of the heavy long positioning in the pair. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- Wednesday features U.K. jobs data and Eurozone, Canadian and U.S. inflation (depending on the shutdown). Thursday sees more UK data (Retail Sales). A slew of U.S. data is slated for that session Whether or not it is released depends on the status of government shutdown.
- For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
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Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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