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Wednesday October 16, 2013 - 10:34:28 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Market participants remain optimistic that the US Congress would find a resolution as budget talks ran down to the wire; UK employment data continues to improve EU Market Update: Market participants remain optimistic that the US Congress would find a resolution as budget talks ran down to the wire; UK employment data continues to improve
Wed, 16 Oct 2013 5:16 AM EST

- Down to the wire. debt ceiling negotiations likely to go right to the October 17 deadline before an agreement is reached
- House Republican effort to end the shutdown and extend the Treasury's borrowing authority collapsed Tuesday night votes
- Senate's Democratic and Republican leaders immediately restarted negotiations to find a bipartisan path forward
- Fitch Rating Agency: Placed US AAA sovereign rating on Rating Watch Negative; Expected to resolve by end-Q1 2014 at latest
- German coalition talks intensify: CDU & Greens decide against any further coalition talks; leaves SPD as only possible coalition partner for CDU
- UK employment data continues its improvement; Claimant Count falls for the 11th straight month

***Economic Data***
- (PH) Philippines Aug Overseas Worker Remittances: $1.9B v $1.9Be; Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.9%e
- (EU) EU27 Sept New Car Registrations: +5.4% v -5.0% prior
- (EU) ECB 9.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 4M prior; 48.3B parked in deposit facility vs. 59.4B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (TH) Thailand Central Bank (BoT) leaves Benchmark Interest Rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected
- (AT) Austria Sept CPI M/M:0.7 % v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.8% prior
- (IT) Italy Aug Total Trade Balance: 1.0B v 6.0B prior; Trade Balance EU: 0.4B v 3.2B prior
- (UK) Sept Jobless Claims Change: -41.7K v -25.0Ke (11th straight decline and largest fall since June 1997); Claimant Count Rate: 4.0% v 4.2%e; lowest level since Jan 2009)
- (UK) Aug Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 0.7% v 1.0%e; Ex Bonus 3M/Y: 0.8% v 1.0%e
- (UK) Aug ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.7% v 7.7%e; Employment Change 3M/3M: +155K v +125Ke
- (EU) Euro Zone Aug Trade Balance Seasonally Adj: 12.3B v 11.8Be; Trade Balance NSA: 7.1B v 10.0e
- (EU) Euro Zone Sept CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e

- (IT) Italy Aug Current Account Balance: 0.4B v 5.9B prior
- (CH) Swiss Oct Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: 24.9 v 16.3 prior

Fixed Income:
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.62% vs. $0.0M prior

ndices: [EuroStoxx50 -0.6%, FTSE 100 -0.50% at 6,518, DAX -0.20% at 8,789, CAC-40 -0.70% at 4,226, IBEX-35 -0.30% at 9,780, FTSE MIB +0.50% at 19,095, SMI -0.70% at 7,928, S&P 500 Futures +0.50% at 1,699]

- Market Focal Points: Traders continue to follow US budget/debt talks, DAX remains below prior record high, CAC-40 underperforms following financial reports (Danone, LVMH, Publicis), European firms start to see negative currency effects, Santander underperforms in the banking sector, Italian banks outperform

By Sector
- Technology
[Anite AIE.UK -30% (profit warning), ASML ASML.NL -1% (Q3 results below ests); Melexis MELE.BE +3.5% (Q3 sales above ests)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Ubisoft UBI.FR -24% (profit warning), LVMH MC.FR -5% (disappointing Q3 sales), Publicis PUB.FR-1.5% (Q3 sales below ests)]
- Consumer Staples [Danone BN.FR -3.5% (cut sales outlook)]
- Industrials [Euronav EURN.BE +4% (Q3 results above ests)]
- Telecom [Telecom Italia TIT.IT +1% (broker commentary)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Holcim HOLN.CH -2% (broker commentary)]
- Eurostoxx50 sectors [Consumer Cyclical -1.6%, Technology -1.5%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -1.1%, Industrials -0.6% ; Utilities +0.9%, Telecom +0.5%, Energy +0.5%, Financials +0.2%, Basic Materials +0.2%,]

- ECB's Jazbec
(Slovenia): EUR strength just a temporary fluctuation
- BOE's Dale: Inflation targets remain at the center of policy; rates to remain low until sustained levels of economic growth. Guidance should help the effectiveness of policy. Reiterates that 7% ILO unemployment isn't a target. Recent indicators suggest UK GDP growing but still over 3% below pre-crisis levels, UK recovery the weakest on record
- German Green party co-leader Oezdemir: Could resume talks with Merkel's CDU/CSU bloc
- German leading economic institutes (Advisors) said to cut both 2013 and 2014 GDP growth forecasts with 2013 GDP growth cut to +0.4% from +0.5% and 2014 GDP growth cut to +1.8% from +1.
- Italy's Senate may not vote on Berlusconi until at least Nov
- Thailand Central Bank commented after its rate decision that current policy was appropriate to support economy. It added that the Thai economy was stabilizing and should gradually recover (**Note: growth has been slower than expected). It announced it would again cut 2013 GDP and export growth forecasts. Inflation was easing but seen within target range
- PIMCOs Bosomworth: Markets believe US won't default; recent turmoil would postpone Fed tapering
- Hong Kong Monetary Authority: HK$ Peg was most suitable and effective mechanism for Hong Kong economy
- World Bank: Cuts India FY14 GDP growth to +4.7% from +5.7% Jun view
- China PBoC reiterated to maintain prudent monetary policy and fine tune when appropriate
- Iran may suspend 20% Uranium enrichment to end sanctions

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Market participants remain optimistic that the US Congress would find a resolution as budget talks ran down to the wire.
The USD was a touch lower against the major pairs as any concrete deal had still not come to fruition. Rating agency Fitch fired a warning shot and placed the US AAA sovereign rating on watch negative.
- In Germany the CDU/SPD coalition was now looking more likely with analysts noting that such a government could weigh on the EUR, especially if Merkel has to concede to more of the SPD agenda
- The GBP was firmer ahead of some key employment data. The GBP/USD tested above 1.6035 and consolidated the gains despite better readings in the Claimant count headline number and unemployment rate.

Political/In the Papers:
-(EU) ECB's Praet: Not expecting any impact on monetary policy from the US budget impasse; Euro is currently in a relatively normal range
-(EU) ECBs' Knot: Must stick to price stability
- (EU) EU Finance Ministers gave final approval to ECB oversight law (SSM) (as expected)
- (IT) Italy PM Letta: Cabinet has approved the new 2014 budget law, development is a step in the right direction
(PT) Portugal Govt outlines 2014 budget (includes 3.2B in spending cuts); Reaffirms 2014 growth forecast. Forecasts 2013 budget deficit at 5.9%/GDP vs 5.5% target
-(US) Fed's Fisher (hawk, non-voter): It will be difficult to make the case to taper at Oct meeting

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IT) Bank of Italy Quarterly Economic Bulletin
- (CH) Swiss government meeting
- (CA) Canada's Parliament Resumes
- (EU) EU to release Progress Reports on Accession Countries
- (IT) President Obama with Italy PM Letta
- (EU) EBA Board meeting in London
- (IR) P5+1 talks with Iran continue in Geneva
- (RU) Russia to sell combined RUB35B in 2018 and 2023 OFZ bonds
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 5.0B in 0.25% 2015 Schatz
- 05:30 (PL) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell combined 1.5B in 3-month and 9-month Bills
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Q2 Final GDP Annualized: No est v 4.9% prelim
- 06:00 (PL) Poland to buyback Bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 11th: No est v +1.3% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Oct FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: No est v 1.1% prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Aug Retail Sales M/M: +0.5%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 2.8% prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Aug Economic Activity M/M: +0.2%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 3.4% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Sept CPI Core M/M: 0.0%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.4% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Sept Average Gross Wages M/M: -0.2%e v -1.8% prior; Y/Y: 3.1%e v 2.0% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Sept Employment M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.3%e v -0.5% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Aug Manufacturing Sales M/M: 0.2%e%e v 1.7% prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: v 207.1B prior
- 10:00 (US) NAHB Oct House Price Index: 57e v 58 prior
- 10:00 (BR) Brazil Oct CNI Industrial Confidence: No est v 54.2 prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75 Bln Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $52B in 4-Week and 52-week Bills
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly Currency Flows
- 12:00 (US) Senate reconvenes
- 12:00 (IS) Iceland Central Bank Minutes From Rate Meeting
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 2-Year Bonds
- 13:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Total Formal Job Creation: 146.5Ke v 127.7K prior
- 13:00 (EU) ECB's Mersche (Luxembourg)
- 13:30 (US) Fed's Pianalto in Ohio
- 14:00 (US) Fed releases Beige Book
- 14:00 (US) Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
- 14:00 (EU) ECB's Draghi in Frankfurt
- 15:25 (US) President Obama with Treasury Sec Lew
- 14:30 (CA) Canad PM Harper in Parliament
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 17:30 (US) Fed's George speaks on Fed Centennial in Oklahoma City
- 17:30 (CA) G24 Director Bhattacharya Speaks at CIGI
- 18:45 (US) Fed's Fisher on big bank in NY




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