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Wednesday October 16, 2013 - 15:26:46 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: US Debt Crisis Enters Endgame US Market Update: US Debt Crisis Enters Endgame
Wed, 16 Oct 2013 11:10 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IL) Israel Q2 Final GDP Annualized: 5.0% v 4.9% prelim
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 11th: +0.3% v +1.3% prior
- (BR) Brazil Oct FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 1.1% v 1.1% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Aug Retail Sales M/M: 1.1% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 1.1%e
- (BR) Brazil Aug Economic Activity M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5%e
- (PL) Poland Sept CPI Core M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e
- (PL) Poland Sept Average Gross Wages M/M: +0.3% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.1%e
- (PL) Poland Sept Employment M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.3%e
- (RU) Russia Sept PPI M/M: 1.4% v 1.8%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e
- (CA) Canada Aug Manufacturing Sales M/M: -0.2% v +0.2%e%e
- (US) NAHB Oct House Price Index: 55 v 57e

- European and US equities are rocketing higher this morning as reports suggest that the fiscal crisis endgame is underway. As of writing, the DJIA is up 1.30%, the S&P500 is up 1.18% and the Nasdaq is up 1.18%.

- Overnight, US futures and overseas equities tumbled after Fitch put the US AAA rating on watch negative and it became clear that the Senate would not be voting on a bill. Things remained in the red in the premarket, and then started shooting higher on reports just after the open of cash trade that the House would vote on Senate debt ceiling/funding bill before the Senate votes in order to expedite passage. If the House passes the bill first, it would eliminate some burdensome procedural hurdles in the Senate and require just one procedural roll call with a 60-vote threshold needed to advance the bill toward final passage in the Senate. Apparently Speaker Boehner will pass the bill with 200 Democrats and as many Republicans as he can muster, potentially dooming his speakership

- Many asset classes have seen sizable reversals over the last hour. The yield on one-month T-bills was cut in half to 0.20% from over 0.40%, while the 10-year yield has shot up to 2.75%. EUR/USD had traded as high as 1.3565 this morning before dropping back to 1.3518. Stops are said to be lined up around 1.3480. Spot gold is holding around the $1,270 level. Crude remains firmly in the $101 handle as P5+1 talks with Iran in Geneva continue to go smoothly.

- Note that earlier this morning, investor Warren Buffett called the debt limit a "political weapon of mass destruction" and said both political parties should pledge never to use it as leverage because of the financial damage it can cause. There is no word on when the parties plan to follow through on Buffett's suggestions.

- Bank of America reported mostly solid Q3 results, posting solid profits although revenue was down slightly y/y. Analysts do note that while loans are growing, the bank is still mostly benefitting from lower provisions and more loan-loss reserve releases. BAC is up 1.7%. Regional banks PNC and US Bank met expectations on relatively solid results. Shares of asset manager Blackrock are up 3% on news of big gains in AUM. The firm noted that while the industry continues to see sizable fixed income redemptions, BlackRock saw net inflows.

- Shares of Intel were in the red before the open after the firm delayed launching 14nm 'Broadwell' chip production to Q1 2014 from then end of 2013 prior. The firm's quarterly results topped expectations, driven by margin gains and good gains in its datacenters group. Yahoo saw continuing 20%+ growth in paied clicks, but display ad revenue and price-per-click declined. The firm's revenue guidance was a bit subpar.

- Stanley Black & Decker is among the biggest losers this morning, with shares of SWK down nearly 15% after the firm slashed its FY13 outlook. The firm's Q3 results met expectations, but it warned that slow margin rate recovery and the government shutdown were impairing its business. Among the biggest gainers is Advanced Auto Parts, up 17% after striking a deal to acquire privately held General Parts International for $2B in cash.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $52B in 4-Week and 52-week Bills
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly Currency Flows
- 12:00 (US) Senate reconvenes
- 12:00 (IS) Iceland Central Bank Minutes From Rate Meeting
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 2-Year Bonds
- 13:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Total Formal Job Creation: 146.5Ke v 127.7K prior
- 13:00 (EU) ECB's Mersche (Luxembourg)
- 13:30 (US) Fed's Pianalto in Ohio
- 14:00 (US) Fed releases Beige Book
- 14:00 (US) Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
- 14:00 (EU) ECB's Draghi in Frankfurt
- 15:25 (US) President Obama with Treasury Sec Lew
- 14:30 (CA) Canad PM Harper in Parliament
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 17:30 (US) Fed's George speaks on Fed Centennial in Oklahoma City
- 17:30 (CA) G24 Director Bhattacharya Speaks at CIGI
- 18:45 (US) Fed's Fisher on big bank in NY




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