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Thursday October 17, 2013 - 10:43:39 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: US budget impasse ends for now; China rating agency Dagong cuts US sovereign rating a notch to A

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: US budget impasse ends for now; China rating agency Dagong cuts US sovereign rating a notch to A
Thu, 17 Oct 2013 5:19 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- US budget impasse ends for now
- Senate voted overwhelmingly 81-18 in favor of the end of govt shutdown and debt limit extension. In the House, over 80 Republican lawmakers crossed over to vote with the unanimous Democrat bloc for an overall 285 Yea to 144 Nay count
- President Obama signed the bill to end Govt shutdown and extend debt ceiling
-S&P: impact of the US debt ceiling fight getting worse by day; expect Senate deal to pass; Govt shutdown taken 0.6% off US Q4 Annualised GDP
- Markets awaiting word on how the delayed data (incliding Sept Non-Farm Payroll) will be released
- China'a Dagong rating agency cut the US sovereign rating to A- from A (one notch); maintains negative outlook
- UK Sept Retail Sales exceeds expectations (Ex Auto M/M: 0.7% v 0.3%e ;) with a slight upward back-month revision
- Spain bond auction was solid with issuance just above the upper end of indicated range at lower borrowing costs and improved bid-to-cover rations


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Sept Final Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -6.3% v -6.3% prelim
- (EU) ECB 0.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 9M prior; 46.8B parked in deposit
- (NL) Netherlands Sept Unemployment Rate: 8.6% v 8.7%e
- (SE) Sweden Sept Unemployment Rate: 7.5% v 7.5%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 8.0% v 8.0%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Aug Current Account Seasonally Adj: 17.4B v 15.5B prior; Current Account NSA: 12.0B v 26.1B prior
- (UK) Sept Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.7% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.2%e
- (UK) Sept Retail Sales incl Auto M/M: 0.6% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.0%e

- (HK) Hong Kong Sept Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3.3%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Aug Construction Output M/M: 0.5 v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: -4.7 v -2.2% prior
- (PL) Central/Eastern European Oct ZEW Indicator: 34.6 v 35.7 prior

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) total 2.545B vs. 1.5-2.5B indicated range in 2016 and 1018 bono Bonds

- Sold 900M in 3.3% July 2016 Bono; Avg Yield 2.064% v 2.225% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.24x v 2.25x prior; Max Yield 2.081% v 2.244% prior
- Sold 1.645B in 3.75% Oct 2018 Bono; Avg yield 3.059% v 3.128% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.47x v 2.05x prior; Maximum Yield 3.078% v 3.161% prior
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total 6.89B vs. 6.0-7.0B indicated range in 2016 and 2018 Oats
- Sold 2.81B in 2.25% Feb 2016 BTAN; Avg Yield 0.42% v 0.43% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.54x v 2.33x prior
- Sold 4.08B in 1.0% 2018 Oat; Avg Yield 1.24% v 1.23% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.75x v 1.67x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities***
Indices [EuroStoxx50 -0.4%, FTSE 100 -0.30% at 6,550, DAX -0.60% at 8,792, CAC-40 -0.7% at 4,215, IBEX-35 -0.20% at 9,856, FTSE MIB -0.6% at 19,171, SMI +0.4% at 8,012, S&P 500 Futures -0.20% at 1,710]

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets decline amid gains in the Yen as US debt/budget agreement approved, Banks trade lower across the board, Earnings from large European consumer companies (Nestle, Metro, Carrefour, Remy Cointreau), Roche reaffirms outlook, KPN sharply lower as America Movil withdrew bid (Telecom Austria moves higher), Technology sector lags following results from IBM, Basic Materials sector supported by higher precious metals prices, Swiss SMI outperforms on Nestle, DAX underperforms on Metro, China Q3 GDP data due to be released on Friday

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Remy Cointreau RCO.FR -3% (H1 sales declined y/y), Metro MEO.DE -1% (Q3 sales inline); British Sky BSKY.UK +4.5% (Q1 sales rose y/y), Nestle NESN.CH +2% (reaffirmed forecast), Carrefour CA.FR +1.5% (Q3 French sales improved)]
- Telecom [KPN KPN.NL -8.5% (America Movil withdrew bid)]
Financials [Man Group EMG.UK +2.5% (reported Q3 net inflows)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Polymetal POLY.UK +3.5% (reaffirmed production forecast), Syngenta SYNN.CH +1.4% (Q3 sales in line)
- Utilities [E.ON EOAN.DE -2.5% (broker commentary)]
- Industrials [Outotec OTE1V.FI -9% (profit warning); Plastic Omnium POM.FR (Q3 sales +11%)]
- Energy [Cairn Energy CNE.UK +1.5% (share buyback)]
- EuroStoxx50 Sectors [Technology -1.5%, Utilities -1.3%, Consumer Cyclical -0.8%, Energy -0.8%, Telecom -0.7%, Industrials -0.7%, Financials -0.5%; Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.5%, Basic Materials +0.3%]

Speakers:
- China'a Dagong rating agency cut the US sovereign rating to A- from A (one notch); maintains negative outlook

- Bank of England's (BoE) Dale: See a chance for a rate change in 2014; Policy to remain loose for some time, Interest rates could rise one, two or three years ahead. Interest rates could conceivably rise in 2014 but would need stronger growth and weaker productivity recovery
- Norway Central Bank Lending Survey: Expects some easing of corporate credit standards in Q4 and approx flat credit standards
- German leading economic institutes (Advisors) confirmed cut both 2013 and 2014 GDP growth forecasts to 0.4% and 1.8% respectively

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD began the day well contained within recent ranges after US politicians reached a deal to reopen the govt and extend the debt ceiling. However, the greenback weakened as the session progressed as dealers were looking ahead to next year, where the more difficult fiscal issues would be faced and potentially complicate the Fed's policy outlook (e.g. delay policy tapering)
- China's Dagong rating agency added more woes to the USDC when it cut the US sovereign rating to A-.
The move sent the EUR/USD to over the 1.36 handle and sparked rumors that perhaps Fitch could follow after placing the country on watch negative earlier this week (**Note: In Aug 2011 a Dagong sovereign cut of the US preceded the historic S&P downgrade by two days)
- Spot gold back above $1,300 following the USD weakness after China's Dagong rating agency cut the US sovereign rating

Political/In the Papers:
- (US) House Of Representative passed the Reid-McConnell deal to end the partial govt shutdown and raise the debt ceiling in a 285 to 144 vote; Provisions of the measure include funding the government through Jan 15th, extending the debt limit through Feb 7, the creation of a bipartisan budget panel and did not limit the Treasury's ability to use extraordinary measures.
(US) US Senate passed the proposal with an 81 to 18 vote.
- (US) Fed Beige Book: Economy grew at modest to moderate pace in most districts [*Note: surveys taken largely before US govt shutdown]
- (IT) Moody's: Italy banking system Outlook remains Negative
- (GR) Greece PM Samaras: Troika is calling for an additional 2.0B in cuts over 2-yrs

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (GR) Greek PM Samaras at Piraeus Marine Club luncheon
- EBA Board meeting in London
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with EU President Van Rompuy in Berlin
- 05:30 (EU) EU's Almunia at capital markets conference
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary to sell Bonds
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 4.75B in 1.25% 2018 Gilts
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Sept PPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.1% prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Rep. to Sell Bills
- 06:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sell 1.5B in 2023,2027 and 2040 I/L Oati bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Oct 11th: No est v $512.7B prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central bank (COPOM) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
- 07:45 (US) Fed's Fisher to speak to Economic Club of New York
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Sept PPI M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.1% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Sept Sold Industrial Output M/M: +10.4%e v -4.5% prior; Y/Y: 7.0%e v 2.2% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central bank (NBP) Minutes of Rate Meeting
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 335Ke v 374K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.91Me v 2.905M prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Aug Int'l Securities Transactions: No est v C$6.1B prior
- 09:00 (US) Treasury 30-year Tips refunding announcement
- 09:00 (RO) Romania to Sell Bonds
- 10:00 (US) Oct Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: 15.0e v 22.3 prior
- 10:00 BR) Brazil to Sell 2014, 2015m 2017 Bills
- 10:00 (BR) Brazil to Sell Fixed-rate 2019 and 2023 bonds
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) U.S. Fed to Purchase USD2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 12:45 (US) Fed's Evans speaks on Economy in Wisconsin
- 12:45 (US) Fed's George speaks on the U.S. Economy in Oklahoma City
- 14:45 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks on Monetary Policy in Montana
- 17:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave its Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 5.00%
- 22:00 (CN) China Q3 GDP Q/Q: 2.1%e v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: 7.8%ev 7.5% prior; GDP YTD Y/Y: 7.7%e v 7.6% prior

- 22:00 (CN) China Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: 10.2%e v 10.4% prior; Industrial Production YTD Y/Y: 9.6%e v 9.5% prior
- 22:00 (CN) China Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: 13.5%e v 13.4% prior; Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 12.9%e v 12.8% prior
- 22:00 (CN) China Sept YTD Urban Fixed Assets: 20.3%e v 20.3% prior

- Delayed
- 08:30 (US) Sept Housing Starts: 890Ke v 891K prior; Building Permits: 935Ke v 926K prior (revised from 918K)
- 09:15 (US) Sept Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Capacity Utilization: No est v 77.8% prior; Manufacturing Production: No est v 0.7% prior

 

 

 

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Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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