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Thursday October 17, 2013 - 15:41:21 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Poor Goldman/IBM Earnings Spoil Debt Crisis Resolution Party US Market Update: Poor Goldman/IBM Earnings Spoil Debt Crisis Resolution Party
Thu, 17 Oct 2013 10:59 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (PT) Portugal Sept PPI M/M: -0.5% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -1.6% v -0.1% prior
- (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Oct 11th: $509.8B v $512.7B prior
- (RU) Russia Sept Unemployment Rate: 5.3% v 5.2%e
- (RU) Russia Sept Real Retail Sales M/M: -1.4% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.9%e
- (PL) Poland Sept PPI M/M: +0.2% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.1% prior
- (PL) Poland Sept Sold Industrial Output M/M: 9.6% v 10.4%e; Y/Y: 6.2% v 7.0%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 358K v 335Ke; Continuing Claims: 2.859M v 2.92Me
- (CA) Canada Aug Int'l Securities Transactions: C$2.1B v C$6.1B prior
- (US) Oct Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: 19.8 v 15.0e

- US markets have spent most of the morning in negative territory after Congress reached a deal to resolve the debt standoff on a very temporary basis. Note that terrible Q3 earnings at Goldman Sachs and IBM have slammed the DJIA. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.58%, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq are flat.

- The US fiscal crisis has been shoved back a few more months, but it's worth remembering that the deadline for the US to raise the debt ceiling again is only 107 days away (although Treasury may be able to push this back further, to March 2014). The two figures charged with building a new budget and fiscal framework over the next few months - Senate Budget Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray (D-WA) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) - tried to strike a positive tone after their first meeting. They face a Dec 13th deadline for reporting back to Congress, with the goal to produce a final budget top-line number for the current fiscal year so that final spending bills can be worked out before funding runs out again on Jan 15th.

- After soaring well above 2.7% yesterday, the yield on the 10-year UST is back around 2.6% this morning. Chinese ratings agency Dagong cut its sovereign rating on the United States to A- early this mornign. The move sent the EUR/USD to over the 1.36 handle and sparked rumors that Fitch might follow suit after putting the country on watch negative earlier this week. Back in August 2011, a Dagong sovereign cut preceded the historic S&P downgrade by two days.

- The threat of the Fed taper took a bite out of Goldman Sachs, whose Q3 profits fell 2% and revenues dived 20%. EPS topped expectations but was way below the year-ago figure, while revenue widely missed. The firm also hiked its dividend by 10%. CEO Blankfein said the results reflected "a period of slow client activity." Shares of GS dropped as much as 3.5% in the premarket, but have recovered in cash trade.

- IBM's revenue was severely compromised in certain areas: hardware revenues were down 17% y/y, technology services rev was down 4% and revenue in BRICs areas were down 15%. The firm reiterated its FY13 earnings outlook and emphasized the growth in overall software revenue, however investors are concerned. Shares dropped more than 7% in the premarket and are still down 5.5% currently.

- Shares of UnitedHealth are down 4.4% in the early going. The firm met expectations in its Q3, however it narrowed its FY13 guidance and warned that FY14 would likely fall well short of the consensus view, with growth challenged in both FY14 and FY15. Most other big healthcare insurance names are down in sympathy.

- Verizon is doing quite well after topping estimates and reporting some decent metrics. Margins were higher y/y, postpaid and the FiOS businesses continue to see subscriber growth and overall revenue grew modestly. VZ is up 2.75%.

- American express is up nearly 4% on solid outperformance in its Q3, with pretty strong gains in both US and international card services revenue. All indications are that customers continue to expand card spending at a steady rate.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:45 (US) Fed's Evans speaks on Economy in Wisconsin
- 12:45 (US) Fed's George speaks on the U.S. Economy in Oklahoma City
- 14:45 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks on Monetary Policy in Montana
- 17:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave its Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 5.00%
- 22:00 (CN) China Q3 GDP Q/Q: 2.1%e v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: 7.8%ev 7.5% prior; GDP YTD Y/Y: 7.7%e v 7.6% prior
- 22:00 (CN) China Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: 10.2%e v 10.4% prior; Industrial Production YTD Y/Y: 9.6%e v 9.5% prior
- 22:00 (CN) China Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: 13.5%e v 13.4% prior; Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 12.9%e v 12.8% prior
- 22:00 (CN) China Sept YTD Urban Fixed Assets: 20.3%e v 20.3% prior




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