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Friday October 18, 2013 - 09:38:54 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Expected delay in Fed tapering following US govt shutdown aids risk appetite EU Market Update: Expected delay in Fed tapering following US govt shutdown aids risk appetite
Fri, 18 Oct 2013 5:11 AM EST

- Quiet calendar in Europe and US to end the week
- Focus will shift to the first of the delayed US releases from next Tuesday (beginning with Sept Non-Farm Payrolls release)

- No surprises from Chinese data (all in line); GDP growth above govt target at fastest pace this year
- (CN) China Q3 GDP Q/Q: 2.2% v 2.1%e; Y/Y: 7.8% v 7.8%e; GDP YTD Y/Y: 7.7% v 7.7%e
- (CN) China Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: 10.2% v 10.2%e; Industrial Production YTD Y/Y: 9.6% v 9.6%e
- (CN) China Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: 13.3% v 13.5%e; Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 12.9% v 12.9%e
- (CL) Chile Central Bank cuts Overnight Rate Target by 25bps to 4.75% (not expected)

***Economic Data***
- (GR) Greece Aug Current Account Balance: 1.2B v 2.7B prior
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply Narrow w/e Oct 14th (RUB): 7.85T v 7.72T prior
- (JP) Japan Sept Nationwide Dept Sales Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.7% prior; Tokyo Dept Sales Y/Y: 3.6% v 5.6% prior
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL sales for week ending Oct 11th (y/y): No est v +2.8% prior
- (EU) ECB 0.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 0.0M prior; 44.8B parked in deposit facility vs. 46.8B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands Oct Consumer Confidence Index: -27 v -33e
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 172.1K v 161.6K tons prior
- (ES) Bank of Spain (BOS) Aug Bad Loan Ratio: 12.1% (record level) vs. 12.0% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR150B vs. INR150B indicated in 2019, 2023, 2032 and 2042 bonds

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.3%
, FTSE 100 +0.30% at 6,595, DAX flat at 8,816, CAC-40 +0.20% at 4,249, IBEX-35 +0.30% at 9,942, FTSE MIB flat at 19,201, S&P 500 Futures +0.10% at 1,730]

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets open slightly higher after the S&P 500 traded at a fresh record high, China Q3 GDP inline but questions about the sustainability of growth rate, Mixed trading in the banking sector, Consumer Non-Cyclical sector outperforms on L'Oreal, Technology underperforms on SAP, Upcoming US corporate earnings (GE, Honeywell, Morgan Stanley, Schlumberger)

By Sector
- Financials
[Pierre Vacances VAC.FR +6% (Q4 sales rose y/y); Gecina GFC.FR -2.5% (share placement); Barclays BARC.UK -1.5% (speculated related to new Libor probe)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Yara International YAR.NO +4% (Q3 sales above ests), Polyus Gold PGIL.UK +3.5% (Q3 gold production +4%); Anglo American AAL.UK -1.5% (issued Q3 production report)]
- Energy [OMV OMV.AT -2% (Q3 production, margins lower y/y)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Accor AC.FR +3.5% (Q3 LFL sales +3.8%), L'Oreal OR.FR +2% (planned acquisition)]
- Consumer Staples [Svenska Cellulosa SCAB.SE +5% (Q3 results above ests)]
- Industrials [Bauer B5A.DE +5% (broker commentary), Valeo FR.FR +2% (reaffirmed FY targets); Amiad Filtration Systems AFS.UK -14% (project delays), MTU Aero Engines MTX.DE -2% (broker commentary)]
- Healthcare [DBV Technologies DBV.FR +6.5% (licensing agreement), Thrombogenics THR.BE +4.5% (data presentation); Grifols GRF.ES -2.5% (share placement)]
- Telecom [Ziggo ZIGGO.NL +1% (reaffirmed outlook)]
- Technology [SAP SAP.DE -1.5% (reports Q3 results next week)]
- Eurostoxx50 Sectors [Consumer Non-Cyclical +1%, Financials +0.3%, Consumer Cyclical +0.1%, Basic Materials +0.1%, Industrials flat; Technology -1.4%, Energy -0.6%, Telecom -0.2%, Utilities -0.1%]

- ECB's Nowotny (Austria) commented that US budget deal was only a short term measure and that longer term uncertainty continued
. He added that a certain mistrust remained in USD currency but the greenback was most important currency and would be for a long time. The alarm signal for the currency would be when oil was not priced in USD. Euro to play an increasing role as a reserve currency. US clearly doing better than EMU in economic terms. The fear was not over US debt service but concerns over its growth
- EU Commission Libor settlement seen by Dec
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) Gov Kuroda reiterated the view that effects of BoJ policy were starting to show effects on economy and have made progress in correction of Yen strength
- BoJ Deputy Gov Iwata: BoJ aimed to achieve price target as soon as possible and would not stop easing even when 2% inflation came closer (BOJ promised not to weaken easing until prices were stable). Reiterated view that BOJ to ease more if believes it would be difficult to hit 2% inflation target
- Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov Kim: Not considering additional steps to control capital flows
- India Central Bank (RBI) said to be considering closing Fx swap line for refiners and looking at possible impact on spot rupee currency if window was closed (**Note: Swap window was announced back on Aug 28th after USD/INR hot 68.85 (record low for rupee)
- India Central Bank official: Swap window remains open for oil refiners; any tapering of window will be in a calibrated manner

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD continued to maintain a heavy tone against the major pairs.
The USD Trade Weighted Index was at 8-month low as the session began. The greenback's weakness attributed to pushed back expectations for Fed policy tapering in light of the US government shutdown and a still uncertain fiscal backdrop.
- The EUR/USD tried several times to break above the 1.37 level and dealers remained well positioned to add to further gains in the pair There were Euro buy-stops building above 1.3715 where the pair would hit fresh 2013 highs
- The AUD/USD continued to hit 4i-month highs as the pair tested 0.9650. Goldman joined the latest batch of analyusts that have moved back the chance of an RBA rate cut. Goldman now saw RBA rate cut in March 2014 vs prior view of Nov 2013

Political/In the Papers:
-(EU) Mitsui Life: Shifted 30-40B of funds to Euro denominated bonds from US bonds in April-Sept; purchased short-term Italian bonds with currency hedging; Plans to focus on Euro bonds for foreign debt holdings.
- (EU) German Bundesbank's Dombret: EMU fiscal situation improved significantly; euro zone fiscal union is still a long way off - financial press
- (IT) Italy former PM Monti resigns as Civic Choice Party leader due to 2014 budget - financial press
- (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni: Economists are underestimating the increase in revenue collection from arrears payments; Banks have nothing to fear from upcoming stress tests; To allow banks to deduct loan losses against Italian regional production tax (IRAP).
- German CDU/CSU and SPD agree to start formal talks on a grand coalition after a week of preliminary meetings. Reports that SPD wants to appoint new Fin Min in Merkel's grand coalition
- (US) Labor Dept said to release its report on September employment on Tuesday, Oct 22nd - financial press
- (US) Fed's Evans: Most likely outcome for the FOMC would be that they would take a couple of meetings to look at the data before tapering decision would occur; Inflation floor would add to confusion rather than clarify it; Shutdown has deprived the Fed of data need to read economy, bond buys should continue until sustainable improvement in job market is seen
- (US) Fed's Fisher: Reiterates it is best to stay with QE program in October
- (US) Moody's reiterates a sovereign rating downgrade for the United States is unlikely within the next two years
- The WSJ's Hilsenrath is suggesting that a start to tapering could still be considered in December, but highlights that this is very uncertain
- (JP) S&P affirms Japan's Sovereign Rating at AA-; negative outlook
- China Stats Bureau (NBS): China economy had good momentum in Jan-Sept; Domestic economy is generally stable; Likely to see stable and fast growth in Q4 but with downward pressure

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (EU) ECB weekly 3-year LTRO repayment announcement
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bonds
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Oct Final IGP-M Inflation: 0.8%e v 1.4% prelim
- 07:30 (CA) Canada PM Harper with EU's Barrosos in Brussels
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves
- 08:00 (US) Fed's Lacker on orderly resolution in Washington DC
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Oct IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/M: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 5.7%e v 5.9% prior
- 08:00 (PT) Bank of Portugal Monthly Economic Indicators Report
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.1% prior; Consumer Price Index: 123.3e v 123.1 prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept CPI Core M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.3% prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Oct Consumer Confidence Index: No est v -7 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Unemployment Rate: 5.1%e v 5.2% prior
- 10:00 (US) API Monthly Statistical Report
- 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 13:00 (US) Fed's Tarullo on orderly resolution in Washington DC
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Evans speaks on Economy in Chicago
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Economic Activity Index M/M: No est v -1.2% prior; Y/Y: 4.8%e v 5.1% prior
- 15:40 (US) Fed's Dudley on orderly resolution in Washington DC
- 16:30 (US) Fed's Stein
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Aug Industrial Production Y/Y: -1.0%e v +0.2% prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: 5.5%e v 5.4% prior




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