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Friday October 18, 2013 - 14:56:29 GMT
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ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - US FISCAL COMPROMISE SHIFTS SPOTLIGHT BACK ON THE DATA

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS   FRIDAY 18 - 24 OCT 2013

US FISCAL COMPROMISE SHIFTS SPOTLIGHT BACK ON THE DATA

• Backlog of US data starts to unwind in the coming week; September payrolls on Tuesday

• UK Q3 GDP to post strong growth - we look for +0.8%q/q, with risks to the upside

• Focus on growth, competitiveness and banking union at EU leaders Summit

 

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 US fiscal ceasefire boosts sentiment... The last minute compromise reached by Congress has averted the risk of a US fiscal impasse turning into a global financial crisis - at least for now. Although only a temporary agreement, global financial markets have responded with a collective sigh of relief. Amid an improvement in risk appetite, the US dollar has generally weakened and equity prices have risen, with the S&P hitting a record high. Despite the improvement in risk sentiment, US bond yields have continued to drop on speculation that the ramifications of the fiscal dispute may delay Fed ‘tapering’ into next year.

Focus to turn back to the data... After all the US political shenanigans, market attention looks set to turn back to the economic data. The end of the US government shutdown paves the way for a raft of postponed economic reports to be released over the coming weeks. The BLS has published a revised schedule for some of its September and October releases following the recent disruption. The September employment report, which was initially due on 4 October, will now be published on Tuesday, although the October release has been pushed back a week to 8th November.

US September payrolls to rise by 189k... Overall, we expect nonfarm payrolls to have posted a gain of 189k in September - slightly above the 180k market consensus. Our forecast is largely driven by the decline in jobless claims over much of last month and the recent rise in the employment components of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISMs. Market reaction to the September payroll report  is likely to be tempered by recent events and the possibility of a much weaker payroll next month as a direct result of the government shutdown. September new home sales and durable goods orders data should also be released in the coming week.

UK markets boosted by US... US  developments have been the key driver of UK markets over the past week, although domestic sentiment has also been impacted by continued signs of recovery. The latest retail sales and claimant count figures posted strong improvements in September, with the latter recording its sharpest monthly decline in 16 years. In the currency markets, GBP/USD has risen back towards 1.62, while the FTSE has rebounded above 6,500. The UK gilt curve, meanwhile, has continued to flatten, with 10-yr yields dropping 3bp on the week, to 2.7%.

UK Q3 GDP in the spotlight... Attention in the UK will be mainly focused on the preliminary Q3 GDP outturn (Fri). We expect GDP to have posted another strong increase, driven by broad-based improvements in manufacturing and services output. Overall, we look for a rise of 0.8%q/q, although the strength of the recent PMIs, retail sales and employment data suggest the risks are skewed towards an even firmer reading.

MPC comments also watched... The minutes of the October MPC meeting are also due (Weds), while Mark Carney and Charlie Bean are both due to give speeches. These will be closely scrutinised  for any sign that the MPC’s views on policy are shifting amid growing signs of recovery. The MPC minutes are expected to show that the decision to keep policy unchanged earlier this month was unanimous, although we suspect the  tone of the debate may put further upward pressure on yields.

EU leader’s Summit...  EU leaders are due to meet in the coming week amid welcome signs of improvement across the region.  Key topics for discussion will be the digital economy, measures to boost growth and competitiveness and progress towards a banking union. Data wise, the focus will be on the October German IFO and the euro area  ‘flash’ manufacturing and services PMIs. Further modest improvements in all three are expected.

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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