User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday July 29, 2005 - 20:31:38 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Will the Bank of England be the First to Cut Rates?

DailyFX Fundamentals 07-29-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Will the Bank of England be the First to Cut Rates?
· Dollar Slips As GDP Falls Short of Expectations
· Another Batch of Stronger Eurozone Data Will Keep ECB on Hold

US Dollar

The dollar took a nosedive after this morning’s GDP report as the numbers tell us that the US economy is growing, but at a slower pace than last quarter. GDP accelerated by 3.4% in the second quarter, down from 3.8% in the first quarter. The disappointment was only a mere 0.1%, but there were a good number of traders in the market expecting a much stronger number following the recent chain of improving US economic data. As a result, we saw a sharp slide in the dollar against the euro. However at least half of those losses were recouped as the market realized that even though inventory growth dragged overall growth lower, other parts of the GDP report did give a cause for optimism. More specifically, final sales surged 5.8% in the second quarter, up from 3.5%. The recent narrowering of the trade deficit also added 1.57% to GDP, which was the largest contribution since 1996. Overall, exports increased by 12.6% while imports fell. It still remains to be seen whether the shrinking of the trade deficit will continue given the elevated level of oil prices. Another sliver of hope for growth was the 9.9 point surge in the Chicago PMI report. After this week’s stronger durables goods orders report, there are more and more signs of a recovery in the manufacturing sector. With the housing market and manufacturing sector both holding on strong, the case builds for another optimistic statement from their Fed in a week and a half. Non-farm payrolls is due for release next Friday, which should be the focus of the market next week. Based upon the recent string of data, we expect another strong triple digit increase. This means that for the time being, even though inflation reports are diverging from the trend of oil prices, there is no stopping the Fed.

Euro

Aside from German retail sales, today brought on another batch of stronger Eurozone data. For most of this past week, we have been seeing more evidence of a recovery and a turnaround in the Eurozone economy. Following yesterday’s drop in German unemployment, French unemployment also fell by 28,000, which is the first time in 5 months that the country has seen an improvement in the labor market. Unemployment in Spain also hit a record low in the second quarter. Thanks to the improvements, Eurozone economic confidence rose from 96.3 to 96.7. Yet confidence was not completely widespread as French consumer pessimism remained at a record low. German retail sales fell 0.3% in June, but an upward revision to the May data offset most the increase. The flash estimate of Eurozone headline inflation increased to 2.2% from 2.1%. Taken together, improving data and rising inflationary pressures in the Eurozone will continue to keep the ECB’s hands tied from lowering rates even though politicians in Italy are complaining about the disastrous effect the Euro has had on growth. As a result, we do not expect any surprises at next week’s ECB meeting. Trichet and his team should remain committed to keeping monetary policy unchanged.

British Pound

The British pound grinded higher for the third consecutive day thanks to a rebound in UK consumer confidence. Given that the most recent release includes sentiment following the London attacks, the improvement was probably attributed to UK consumer expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England. This is the first meeting in a long time where we have the market and economists somewhat divided on the outcome. Most economists do expect a quarter point rate hike on August 4th, but based upon the latest price action, it does not seem that the market is as convinced of a move. There is good reason for traders to stand on both sides of the fence. While the BoE could deliver a rate cut to spur optimism following the London attacks, especially since last month’s vote was on a narrow 5-4 margin, the strength of the latest retail sales report and recent rebound in confidence as well as still buoyant inflationary pressures could tempt them to keep rates unchanged for yet another month. Regardless as we currently stand, the Bank of England is on its way to becoming one of the first major central banks to cut rates this year. It seemed as if it was only yesterday, that they were one of the first central banks to raise rates back in November 2003.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen sold off modestly today against the dollar despite some rather promising news. Industrial production rose unexpectedly by 1.5% last month while the jobless rate fell to 4.2%, the lowest level in 7 years. China also came out with more contradictory talk. Today the People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou was quoted as saying “from now on, the yuan rates’ fluctuation will not be because of government adjustments.” The market has taken this in stride because for the most part, he is only stating facts - the currency now fluctuates 0.3% based upon the previous day’s rate and not based upon the 8.11 rate that was set on July 21 so the market does have a hand in the currency’s fluctuations. Yet nonetheless, we also know that China has an interest in encouraging a gradual appreciation in the RMB, which will be positive for the Japanese Yen over the longer term. Weakness today could then be attributed to another rally in oil prices and a drop in worker’s household spending. The market had expected spending to increase but it actually fell by 1.4%.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105