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Monday October 21, 2013 - 09:43:45 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Quiet European session as traders await the release of US payroll data on Tuesday

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Quiet European session as traders await the release of US payroll data on Tuesday
Mon, 21 Oct 2013 5:12 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Japan Sept Trade Balance registers its 15th straight deficit (record string going back to the 1979 energy crisis) -932.1B vs. -918.6Be
- Market interest on the low side until Tuesday's delayed US September nonfarm payroll report is released

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Aug All Industry Activity Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e
- (JP) Japan Sept Supermarket Sales Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.1% prior
- (JP) Japan Aug Final Leading Index CI: 106.8 v 106.5 prelim; Coincident Index: 107.6 v 107.6 prior
- (DE) Germany Sept PPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.7%e
- (CH) SNB Sight Deposits for Week Ended Oct 18th (CHF): 320.5B v 320.9B prior
- (CH) Swiss Sept M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.7% v 10.5% prior
- (JP) Japan Sept Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: -1.6% v -1.4% prior
- (EU) ECB 0.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 0.0M prior; 42.8B parked in deposit facility vs. 44.8B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands Sept House Price Index M/M: -0.2% v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: -4.1% v -4.4% prior
- (TW) Taiwan Sept Export Orders Y/Y: 2.0% v 0.4%e; third straight monthly rise
- (IT) Italy Aug Industrial Orders M/M: 2.0% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -6.8 v -2.2% prior
- (IT) Italy Aug Industrial Sales M/M: +1.0% v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: -4.8% v -3.6% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Sept CPI Composite Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.4%e
- (EU) Euro Zone 2012 Debt to GDP Ratio: 90.6% v 90.6% prior

Fixed Income:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities***
Indices [Stoxx 50 -0.20%, FTSE 100 +0.20% at 6,635, DAX -0.10% at 8,854, CAC-40 -0.30% at 4,275, IBEX-35 -0.10% at 9,992, FTSE MIB -0.40% at 19,200, SMI +0.50% at 8,122, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,737]

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets open mixed after various indices hit record highs on Friday's session, European corporate earnings (Akzo Noble, Philips, SAP), Quarterly sales of large European companies miss ests on currency headwinds, RBS leads banking sector lower, SAP and Philips lead gains in the technology sector, Swiss SMI outperforms on Actelion, FTSE MIB underperforms on luxury retailers, Upcoming US corporate earnings (Halliburton, Manpower, McDonald's), Resumption of US economic releases

By Sector
- Technology
[Philips PHIA.NL +6% (Q3 profits above ests), SAP SAP.DE +4% (reaffirmed forecast)]
- Telecom [Mobistar MOBB.BE +6% (Q3 profits above ests)]
- Financials [RBS RBS.UK -5% (comments by UK Chancellor Osborne)]
- Industrials [Akzo Nobel AKZA.NL +7% (Q3 profits above ests), PostNL PNL.NL +2% (pension agreement)]
- Healthcare [Actelion ATLN.CH +5% (FDA approval), Evotec EVT.DE +2% (collaboration agreement)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Hugo Boss BOS.DE -2.5% (broker commentary)]
- Eurostoxx50 Sectors [Financials -0.6%, Consumer Non-cyclical -0.4%, Energy -0.4%, Utilities -0.4%, Consumer Cyclical -0.3%, Telecom -0.2% Basic Materials -0.1%; Technology +1.8%, Industrials +0.4%]

Speakers:
- Cyprus Central Bank gov Demetriades
commented that its country's banking sector losses seen increasing in 2014 but sector remained sufficiently capitalize. He added that no more deposit losses to be imposed. He expected economic contraction of less than 8.7% for 2013, 2014 outlook was uncertain. (Note: Last week, Cyprus' Fin Min revised the view for the 2013 GDP contraction to close to 7% from 8.7%)
- Cyprus Fin Min Georgiandes stated that he saw currency controls being lifted before spring of 2014 (with the exception of transfers abroad)
- Spain Business Lobby (IEE) Chairman Feito: Spain 2014 budget was not ambitious; budget increases taxes and limits spending cuts
- BoJ Gov Kuroda in Parliament stated that premature to discuss exit policy from easing; exit strategy might change depending on economic climate
- BoJ raised its assessment on all 9 regions (first time since April) in its Sakura quarterly regional report (**Note: similar to the Fed's beige book)
- OPEC General Sec El-Badri reiterated that oil market fundamentals were in check, market was well supplied. oil prices between $100-110 was acceptable to both producers and consumers

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Market interest on the low side until Tuesday's delayed US September nonfarm payroll report is released
- The USD was steady but retracements from last week's steep losses were limited. The EUR/USD remained below the pivotal 1.3711 resistance (2013 high).
The USD/JPY pair hovered around the 98 handle throughout the session. Dealers noted of very strong Japanese support, which is keeping the 97.50 level intact
- Russia Central bank dids not sell FX in daily operations on Friday (first time in over 100 sessions)

Political/In the Papers:
- (DE) German Finance Ministry releases monthly report: Sept industry output could be moderate; economy to grow in H2
- (DE) SPD to enter formal talks with Merkel's CDU/DSU on Wed Oct 23rd, lists 10 "non-negotiable" demands for coalition - press
-(IT) Italy appeals court bans former PM Berlusconi from public office for 2 year period
-(UK) BOE's Broadbent: Further inflation shocks possible not expected; rate hike only after recovery is on secure footing - financial press
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) gov Kuroda: BOJ to continue easing until inflation rate 2% is stable - BOJ branch managers meeting
- (JP) Japan PM Abe is likely to visit the controversial Yasukuni Shrine for war dead by the end of the year
- (CN) China Premier Li Keqiang: to strengthen economic reform and structural adjustment in Q4 - State Council exec meeting

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU Foreign Ministers meeting in Luxembourg
- (ES) Spain Central Bank Gov Linde at OMFIF Roundtable
- (FR) Bank of France/ECB joint press conference
- (IL) Israel Sept Leading 'S' Indicator M/M: No est v 0.2% prior
- (UK) DBO syndicate of 2068 Gilts (reopening at one point this week)
- (PT) Portugal Aug Current Account Balance: No est v 453.1Mprior
- 05:30 (AT) ECB's Nowotny in Vienna
- 05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell 2.0-4.0B in 3-month and 6-month bills
- 05:30 (SK) Slovakia Debt Agency (ARDAL) to sell 2023 and 2024 bonds
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Aug Manufacturing Production M/M: No est v 1.5% prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell Bonds
- 06:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON500Min Bills
- 07:15 (EU) EU's Jones speaks on Enlargement at CEPS in Brussels
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Aug Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.3%e v 1.5% prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 7.4B in 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month bills
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.3% prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50%
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases
- 10:00 (US) Sept Existing Home Sales: 5.30Me v 5.48M prior
- 11:00 (US) DOE Crude inventories (week of Oct 11th)
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $3.00-4.00B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $65B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 12:00 (CA) Canada Minister Lebel

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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