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Tuesday October 22, 2013 - 10:41:17 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Release of delayed Sept payrolls eyed for market direction; UK borrowing falls in Sept aided by stake sale in Lloyds

Tuesday, October 22, 2013 5:23:33 AM EU Market Update: Release of delayed Sept payrolls eyed for market direction; UK borrowing falls in Sept aided by stake sale in Lloyds

***Notes/Observations*** </
>- US begins releaser of backed-logged data from its 16 day partial govt shutdown; Sept Non-Farm
- Markets appear to be discounting the releases to a degree as they would l not capture the impact from the October government shutdown
- China New Home prices rise for 9th straight month
- UK Govt borrowing fell in September, aided by higher tax revenue and sale of stake in Lloyds
- Spanish refinancing costs fall at its 3-month and 9 month Bill auction.

***Economic Data***
- (CH) Swiss Sept Trade Balance (CHF): 2.5B v 2.0Be; Real Exports M/M: 2.0% v 1.9% prior; Real Imports M/M: +3.1% v -3.9% prior
- (FI) Finland Sept Unemployment Rate: 7.6% v 7.2%e
- (DK) Denmark Sept Retail Sales M/M: -0.3 v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -2.4% v -0.7% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Aug Leading Indicator: 101.4 v 100.7 prior
- (EU) ECB 136M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 0.0M prior; 49.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 42.8B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (PL) Poland Sept Unemployment Rate: 13.0% v 13.0%e
- (PL) Poland Sept Retail Sales M/M: -0.7% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 4.6%e
- (UK) Sept Public Finances (PSNCR): -0.6B (surplus) v +8.2Be (deficit(; PSNB ex Interventions: 11.1B v 11.3Be; PSNB ex Royal Mail, APF: 11.1B v 11.5Be prior; Public Sector Net Borrowing: 9.4B v 10.0Be
- (IS) Iceland Sept Wage Index M/M: 0.7% v 0.2% prior' Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.7% prior

Fixed Income:
- (EU) EFSF opened its book to sell new 7-year Euro-denominated benchmark bond; guidance set +20bps over mid-swaps with order book over 8.0B
- (UK) DMO opened its book to sell 4.5B in July 2068 Gilts via syndicate; guidance seen +2.5-3.0bps over 2060 Gilt; order book at 12.5B
- (EU) ECB allotted 90.6B in 7-day Main Refi Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 91.2B prior
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 3.52B vs. 2.5-3.5B indicated range in 3-Month and 9-Month Bills
- Sold 681M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.294% v 0.291% prior; Bid-to-cover: 5.39x v 3.85x prior; Max Yield: 0.300% v 0.318% prior Tail: 0.6bps v 2.7bps prior
- Sold 2.84B in 9-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.682% v 0.980% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.11x v 2.64x prior; Max Yield: 0.703% v 1.004% prior; Tail: 2.1bps v 2.4bps prior

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.1% at 6,660, DAX -0.1% at 8,858, CAC-40 -0.10% at 4,271, IBEX-35 -0.20% at 10,019, FTSE MIB flat at 19,263, SMI +0.20% at 8,140, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,737]

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets open mixed ahead of the delayed release of the US Sept payrolls report, Banks open mixed ahead of release of stress test parameters, Energy sector lags on lower oil prices, Big European Corporate earnings (Reckitt Benkiser, Swedbank, Novartis, Arm Holdings, Lufthansa, KPN), Upcoming US earnings (Dupont, Whirlpool, Freeport McMoran)

By Sector [Stoxx50 ]
- Basic Resources/Materials [BHP BLT.UK +2% (Q3 iron ore production +23% y/y); Petropavlovsk POG.UK -3% (cut FY production outlook), Salzgitter SZG.DE -1% (broker commentary)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Reckitt Benkiser RB.UK +4% (Q3 sales above ests), Whitbread WTB.UK +1% (H1 results rose y/y); Lufthansa LHA.DE -2% (Q3 outlook)]
- Industrials [Fomento FCC.ES +10% (investor interest), Transocean RIGN.CH +5% (to be added to S&P 500) GKN GKN.UK +1% (Q3 results in line)]
- Healthcare [Novartis NOVN.CH +1% (Raised FY profit forecast)]
- Financials [Gjensidige GJF.NO +10% (outlook), Swedbank SWEDA.SE +4% (Q3 results above ests); Leg Immobilien LEG.DE -4% (share placement)]
- Technology [ARM Holdings ARM.UK -2% (Q3 royalties revs below consensus)]
- Telecom [KPN KPN.NL +2% (reported Q3 results); Tele2 TELE2B.SE -6.5% (outlook), Telecom Austria TKA.AT -4% (Austrian mobile spectrum auction)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Technology +0.3%, Basic Materials +0.2%, Industrials +0.1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.1%, Financials +0.1% ;Energy -1.1%, Utilities -0.8%, Telecom -0.3%, Consumer Cyclical -0.3%]

- ECB's Coene (Belgium) Further drop in EU Harmonized inflation (HICP) might warrant policy action. If the central bank did cut its main refi rate, it might or might not cut deposit rate (currently 0.00%) at the same time. Even if HICP stayed as was for an extended period its too low. Moment for ECB action has not quite arrived yet
- BOE's Bean reiterates his view that the UK domestic recovery was gaining traction but pace would likely be modest as there was a long way to go before the economy was fully mended. Monetary policy would have to remain accommodative and supportive of growth. Inflation expectations remain well anchored. He also reiterated the view that 7% unemployment rate was not a trigger and the MPC had the option to lower jobless threshold if there was still slack.
- EU's Barroso said to have warned that the EU Parliament was at risk of insolvency should it not grant a supplementary budget next month (Nov)
- Outgoing BoE Deputy Gov Tucker: Forward guidance means the BoE won't commit to exiting stimulus early when there is slack in the economy
- Germany Govt said to raise 2014 GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 1.6% while maintaining 2013 GDP growth at 0.5%
- EU lawmakers reject Draghi's call for bank bondholder clemency
- France Industry Min Montebourg reiterated his view that EUR currency was too strong
- Moody's credit official on Japan stated that a consumption tax increase was preferable to either income or corporate tax hike. It was looking at progress of Japan govt's deficit reduction
- India Trade Min Sharma stated that the country could look at importing onions to counter price spike. He noted that India had enough local onion stockpile but price rise was mainly due to hoarding
- India Fin Min Chidambaram: Credit growth has been satisfactory and expected it to remain that way for the rest of the year; Banks would meet FY14 credit target of INR7.0T

- China's rating agency Chairman and President Guan Jianzhong stated on CNBC that its rating on US sovereign debt should provide guidance to reflect investment policies for the China govt
- China Policy Advisor Song Guoqing reiterated PBoC might tighten policy in response to rising inflation; would use money market liquidity adjustments to tighten

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX markets were fairly muted with focus on the release of delayed US payroll data. The data impact on bond volatility will steer FX volatility and hence the performance of the USD.
- Dealers noted that a break above the 1.3711 level in the EUR/USD pair could open up for test towards 1.40 based upon measured move of recent consolidation range. The EUR/USD pair has been within a 300 pips range (1.34-1.37) since the Fed failed to taper back in mid-Sept

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Knot (Netherlands): New LTRO is not on the table and there is no convincing reason to conduct one
- (EU) ECB's Praet (Belgium): Do not expect any big surprises from asset quality review (AQR) at European banks; some banks may have additional capital needs
- (GR) Greece PM Samaras: Reiterates Greece will have a primary surplus in 2013; Expect European lenders to help with Greece debt in November as promised.
- (PT) Portugal Econ Min: Exports are gaining market share; priority for Portugal is attracting investment; Notes there are no negotiations right now on a precautionary credit line

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU General Affairs Ministers Hold Meeting in Luxembourg
- (EU) NATO Defense Ministers meeting in Brussels
- (RO) IMF begins visit to Romania
- (EU) ECB and Bank of France hold joint news conference
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills;
- 06:00 (FI) Finland Econ Min short-term labor forecasts
- 06:00 (PL) Poland to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to Sell 2014 Zero Coupon Bonds
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell up to 2.5B in 6-month bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit tender; to drain 188.0B
- 07:00 (IT) Italy Business Lobby
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Tax Collections (BRL): 84.5Be v 84.0B prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:30 (US) Sept Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +180Ke v +169K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +180Ke v +152K prior; Change in Manufacturing: +5Ke v +14K prior
- 08:30 (US) Sept Unemployment Rate: 7.3%e v 7.3% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 13.7% prior; Change in Household Employment: No est v -115K prior
- 08:30 (US) Sept Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.2% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.5e v 34.5 prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Aug Retail Sales M/M: 0.3%e v 0.6% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.2%e v 1.0% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (AT) ECB's Nowotny (Austria) in Vienna
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves:
- 09:15 (US) Aug Net Long-term TIC Flows: $31.0Be v $31.1B prior; Total Net TIC Flows: No est v $56.7B prior
- 10:00 (IT) Italy PM Letta addresses Senate on EU Council
- 10:00 (US) Oct Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 0e v 0 prior
- 10:00 (US) Construction Spending: 0.4%e v 0.6% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico weekly International Reserves
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories (Week of Oct 11th)
- 10:30 (CA) Canada to sell 1-month, 3-month and 12-month bills
- 11:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell Bills and Bonds
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $30B in 4-Week Bills
- 11:25 (US) President Obama
- 12:00 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2018 and 2022 Bonds
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Trade Balance: $775Me v $568M prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories (week of oct 18th)
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Aug Trade Balance: +$156.1Me v -$221.0M prior; Total Imports CIF: $5.1Be v $5.1B prior
- 20:30 (AU) Australia Q3 CPI Q/Q: 0.8%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 2.4% prior

- Source


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