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Wednesday October 23, 2013 - 03:39:40 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 23-Oct -2013 -0337 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

 

EQUITIES
Equities are up globally. Modern Economics: Bad US NFP = Strong Equities.

Dow (15467.66, +75.46) has risen further targeting 15800. Nasdaq (3929.57, +9.52) is up. It is in a near term uptrend and is targeting the resistance at 4000. Dax (8947.46, +80.24) is up and can now target 9100-9200.

Nikkei (14741.28, +28.03) is up but has Resistance near 14800. The fall in Dollar-Yen could pull the Nikkei down and it can target 14400 if the Resistance holds. Shanghai (2220.82, +10.17) is up. Moving sideways for now. Whether it rises to 2400 to falls to 2000 is still unsure.

Nifty (6202.80, -2.15) has remained stable throughout yesterday. It can target 6300 but there may be chances of a fall to 6100-6000. A quiet day today could be a sign of weakness. Let's see.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1340.60) has risen on the fall in the Dollar. It has a Double Bottom and can now target 1375-1425. Silver (22.75) is holding above support at the 13-Week MA. Athough it has Resistance near 23, the falling Gold-Silver ratio suggests Silver could move higher towards 24.

Copper (3.3255) saw a high of 3.355 yesterday. We may now see it targeting 3.40 if it moves past the resistance near 3.375.

Nymex WTI (98.13) has dipped even further as there is an increase in Crude stockpiles in the US. It can target 96. Brent (109.91) has remained stable. We see it moving in a sideways range for a few days The Brent-WTI spread has come up to 11.78. We may see the spread widening to 13 if the WTI prices keep falling.

CURRENCIES
Euro (1.3789) shot up after the much lower than expected NFP data yesterday. It may now test 1.3980-1.4000 levels in the near term. Dollar Index (79.190) has fallen after the NFP data and may decline further towards 78.90-60.

Pound (1.6247) has risen and may target 1.63-1.64 in the near term. Dollar Yen (97.89) has come off from 98.47 and may continue to move within the 97-99.5 region in the near term. The Aussie (0.9741) has met our target at the 200-day MA near 0.97 but might see some profit taking now between current levels and 0.978.

R-Currencies are overall stable in a sideways movement. Dollar-Rupee (61.65) dipped a bit yesterday coming off from the 61.80-90 region. The Rupee may strengthen some more towards on overall Dollar weakness.

INTEREST RATES
Strong dip in the US 10Yr (2.50%) after the bad US NFP data yesterday. Charts suggest further decline towards 2.25% in coming weeks. The US-Japan 10Yr spread (1.89%) has fallen sharply also from 2.0% yesterday. So has the German-US 10Yr Spread (-0.71%) has also reduced. As a result, the Dollar has lost against the Euro (1.3789) and the Yen (97.97).

The German-US Spread (-0.71%) can rise some more towards -0.63% where it faces a strong Resistance and could come off sharply from there. But, as mentioned earlier, the US-Japan 10Yr spread (1.89%) has made a medium term Top and could dip a little more towards 1.80%-1.78%.

We suspect the Fed might increase share of MBS (mortgage backed securities) purchase in its policy meeting next week.

The 10Yr GOI (8.61%) trades well above 8.50% and may remain elevated ahead of the RBI Meeting next week. Might we expect some more announcements regarding the Rupee market from Raghu Rajan? Watch for that.

 

DATA TODAY
1:30 GMT or 7:00 IST AU CPI
...Expected 0.80 % ...Previous 0.40 % ...Actual 1.2%

8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK BOE Minutes
...Expected 0-0-9 % ...Previous 0-0-9 %

13:00 GMT or 18:30 IST BOC Meeting
...Expected 1.00 % ...Previous 1.00 %


DATA YESTERDAY
US NFP
...Actual 148 K ...Previous 193 K

US Unemployment Rate
...Actual 7.20 % ...Previous 7.3 %

US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)

...Actual-8.92 $ Bln ...Previous 30.95 $ Bln

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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