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Wednesday October 23, 2013 - 11:20:24 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Risk appetite hits headwinds over concerns of tightening of monetary conditions in China EU Market Update: Risk appetite hits headwinds over concerns of tightening of monetary conditions in China
Wed, 23 Oct 2013 5:13 AM EST

- Australia Q3 CPI rises to a 1-year high (q/q 1.2% vs. 0.8%e)
- Risk aversion sentiment in Asia on Chinese concerns. 1) PBOC may tighten cash liquidity to counter inflation. Policy focused on inflation not asset prices. (Money rate jumps most since July while CNY at record highs.) - 2) China Premier talks down market concerns regarding govt debt levels while investors await the formal findings of a state-sanctioned audit. Reports circulated that top China banks tripled debt write-offs in H1
- ECB released details of its asset quality review (AQR)
- BOE Minutes again showed an unanimous vote to keep both interest rates and Asset Purchases steady at 0.50% and 375B respectively

***Economic Data***
- (SG) Singapore Sept CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 2.0%e
- (FR) France Oct Business Confidence: 98 v 98e; Production Outlook Indicator: -5 v -11e; Own-Company Production Outlook: 9 v 13 prior; Business Survey Overall Demand+1 v -11 prior
- (DK) Denmark Oct Consumer Confidence Indicator: 4.6 v 4.7 prior
- (EU) ECB 0.0 borrowed in overnight loan facility (4th time in 5 session) vs. 136.0M prior; parked in deposit facility vs. 49.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands Aug Consumer Spending Y/Y: % v -2.2% prior
- (TW) Taiwan Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: 1.1% v 0.1%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: +1.3% v -0.7%e
- (ZA) South Africa CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 6.0% v 6.0%e
- (ZA) South Africa CPI CPI Core M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 5.3% v 5.3%e
- (ES) Spain Aug Trade Balance: -1.8B v -0.8B prior
- (IT) Italy Sept Non-EU Trade Balance: 318M v 559M prior
- (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Minutes: Voted 9 to 0 (unanimous) to leave interest rates and Asset Price Target (APT) at current levels of 0.50% and 375B respectively)
- (UK) Sept BBA Loans for House Purchase: 43.0K v 39.5Ke; 4-year high
- (EU) Euro Area Q2 Government Debt-to-GDP: 93.4% v 92.3% q/q

Fixed Income:
(EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.58% vs. $0.0M prior

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.4%,
FTSE 100 -0.40% at 6,666, DAX -0.4% 8,908, CAC-40 -0.6% at 4,268, IBEX-35 -1.4% at 9,867, FTSE MIB -1.1% at 19,162, SMI -0.2% at 8,200, S&P 500 Futures -0.50% at 1,740]

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets broadly lower amid weakness in Asian markets and Yen gains, China money market rates rise amid monetary tightening signals, Spain's IBEX-35 lags on Iberdrola and banks, Financials are broadly lower as ECB commented on stress tests, Orange weighs on telecom sector, Big European Earnings (Heineken, Iberdrola, Swedish Banks, Peugeot, Orange), Upcoming US Earnings (Boeing, Caterpillar)

By Sector
- Technology
[RM Plc RM.UK -7% (strategy update), STMicroelectronics STM.FR -6.5% (Q3 results below ests), Barco BAR.BE -6.5% (cautious outlook)]
- Industrials [Peugeot UG.FR +4% (raised 2013 forecast for European car market); De La Rue DLAR.UK -8.5% (cautious outlook), Faurecia EO.FR -5.5% (reported Q3 sales)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Heineken HEIA.NL -4.5% (cut outlook); Home Retail HOME.UK +4.5% (H1 profits +53% y/y), Bic BB.FR +5.5% (guided margins near higher end)
- Basic Materials/Resources [Norsk Hydro NHY.NO +7.5% (Q3 results above ests)]
- Healthcare [Biomerieux BIM.FR +3% (9-month sales rose y/y)]
- Telecom [Orange ORA.FR -4% (Q3 results below ests)]
- Utilities [Iberdrola IBE.ES -1.5% (Q3 results below ests)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Telecom -2%, Utilities -1%, Energy -1%, Financials -0.7%, Industrials -0.5%, Technology -0.4%, Consumer Cyclical -0.2%; Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.1%, Basic Materials +0.1%]

- German official: Expect EU leaders to discuss timeline for banking union at this week's summit.
Goal remained to achieve a common position on the resolution mechanism by the end of 2013. Germany had no plans to present alternative SRM plan at summit, but to work with partners to find a solution
- ECB released details on Comprehensive Assessment of bank balance sheets: The process would begin in Nov 2013 and will last 12 months. ECB to require 8% Tier 1 capital ratio for the banks under SSM. Ex-ante availability of backstops was critical and would apply harmonized EBA definition for NPLs (90 day overdue loans). Portfolio selection for assessment to begin in Nov 2013 and end at Dec 31st 2013. AQR to look at bank balance sheets as of Dec 31st 2013 and will cover banks sovereign, institutional, corporate and retail exposures. To compile final list of SSM banks in 2014 (current list includes 128 banks)
- (ES) Bank of Spain monthly report: Q3 GDP m/m: +0.1%, y/y: -1.2% (**Note: would technically end its 8 quarter recession). Q3 unemployment data would be the best since 2008
- BOE Minutes noted that forward guidance remained in place and no MPC saw tightening case. All MPC members saw little case for more stimuli. Recent news suggested robust recovery. Probable that unemployment would be lower and output growth faster in H2 2013 than Aug forecast. GBP currency appreciation lowered chance of CPI being above 2.5% in 18-24 months and reduced chance of inflation knockout
- France Labor Min Sapin: Unemployment data won't be good (**Note: due for release on Thursday, Oct 24th)
- BoJ financial system report highlighted that there were no indications that would warn of financial imbalances. Financial conditions at companies and households were more accommodative. Domestic banks would face 6.0T in losses in interest rates rose by 1 pct point (note: the est given in April was 6.6T)
- Japan Post: No plan of reducing holdings of US Treasuries

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The focus was on China during the Asian session. Analysts noted that tightening of monetary conditions in via a stronger CNY currency and higher money market rates helped to curb risk appetite. Reports circulated that top China banks tripled debt write-offs in H1 did not help.
The EURUSD remained above the pivotal 1.3711 level which provided upward momentum to probe higher. The pair was off its 2-year highs of 1.3793 in the European session but dealers noted that topside barriers should magnetically pull it towards 1.4000. However, some dealers hope that the situation in China might renew pressure to curb Euro gains as current level might suggest it was technically painfully overbought. A move below 1.3711 would generate a renewed bearish signal.
- The USD/JPY tested below its 200 moving average of 97.30 during Asia. The inability of the Nikkei225 Index to stay above 14,800 level prompted flows into the JPY currency on aversion sentiment
- The Band of Canada (BoC) was expected to keep policy unchanged at today's meeting

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) EFSF official: 2013 funding program is nearly completed
- (EU) ECB to require 8% buffer on region's largest banks, 7% buffer for other banks - press; Supervisory Plan will cover 124 of the significant Euro banks
-(US) In Asian trading, US 10-year yield falls to 2.494% (1st time below 2.50% since July)

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CH) Swiss government meeting
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel bloc with SPD on coalition negotiations
- (EU) NATO Defense Ministers meet
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 2.0B in 2.5% 2044 Bunds
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 2016 and 2019 Bonds
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Oct FGV Consumer Confidence: No est v 114.2 prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell OFZ Bonds
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 18th: No est v 0.3% prior
- 07:00 (TR) Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Repurchase Rate unchanged at 4.50%; Leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged 7.75% prior; leave Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged 3.50% prior
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Fin Min Gordhan presents Mid-Term Budget
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Mid-Term Budget
- 08:30 (US) Sept Import Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -1.0%e v -0.4% prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Oct Business Confidence: -6.2e v -6.7 prior
- 09:00 (US) Aug House Price Index M/M: 0.8%e v 1.00% prior

- 09:00 (EU) ECB Forex
- 09:30 (IT) Italy PM Letta with President Napolitano
- 10:00 (PT) Portugal PM Coelho in Parliament
- 10:00 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 1.00%
- 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Oct Advance Consumer Confidence: -14.5e v -14.9 prior
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency flows
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories (week of Oct 18th)
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 11:15 (CA) Bank of Canada Gov post rate decision press conference
- 13:30 (ES) Bank of Spain Gov Linde in Palma Mallorca
- 21:45 (CN) China Oct HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI: 50.4e v 50.2 prior




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