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Sunday July 31, 2005 - 22:23:23 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 1st August 2005

Price: 112.41

Resistance: 112.45 ... 112.80 ... 113.17 ... 113.64
Support....: 111.88 ... 111.66 ... 111.34 ... 110.99

Bias: Slightly mixed and need a break of 111.88 or 112.86 to trigger a 80-100 point move

Bullish: No break of 112.86 seen and for the preferred bullish view to remain valid we require 111.88 (max 111.66) to hold and for gains to move above 112.45 and then 112.80-86 to keep the upward momentum going for a rally to the 113.71-114.04 target area. However if seen, we'd look for this to cap.

Bearish: Failure to break the key 111.66-88 area still keeps the bullish stance slightly in favor. However, we should watch support at 111.88 and then 111.66, break of which would cause losses down to 111.34 at least. This area could provide support that could hold, but there is also risk to 110.70-00.



Elliott Wave Comments:

29th July 2005

The second failure at 112.86 concerns. It is possible that we are merely seeing an extended sideways expanded flat with support at 111.66-88 (probably the higher level) and that Wave v can extend to the favored 113.71-114.14 area. However, we also note that the 112.86 area is an approximate 76.4% pullback to the decline from 113.71 to 109.85. This could imply a triangle though we feel this pattern would be too short in time for the next daily cycle low. Thus, we do not feel the time is quite right for a stronger move lower but should watch the 111.66-88 area, break of which would force us to look for an alternative pattern which could be a triple three higher and this would imply stunted losses probably remaining above 110.70-99.

1st August 2005

The movement since the Wave iii high at 112.62 has been quite subdued but has yet to break below the crucial 111.66-88 Fibonacci retracement levels. We prefer to label Friday's low at 111.93 as Wave iv and as such we should then anticipate a move in Wave v to 113.71-114.04 (being 61.8% - 76.4% projections). We would then view this as Wave a of expanded Wave -b-. If the 111.66-88 area breaks then we need assess the nature of the underyling rally - quite possible this occurring in a triple three in Wave -b-.



(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005

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