Thursday October 24, 2013 - 03:55:52 GMT
Share This Story
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 24-Oct -2013 -0353 GMT
Equities fell globally, brought down by a surge in Chinese Repo rates yesterday.
Dow (15413.33, -54.33) is down. We may see it ranged at 15300-15500 before a rise to 15800. Nasdaq (3907.07, -22.49) has dipped and has come near the support at 3875 before we see it rise to 4000. Dax (8919.86, -27.60) has also dipped from the resistance at 8950 but it is in an overall uptrend and can go up to 9100-9200.
The Asia-Pac fell after there was an increase in the Chinese Repo rates. Nikkei (14353.40, -72.65) has crashed and fallen below our target of 14400 as the Yen strengthened against the Dollar. The resistance near 14800 has held well. We may see a further fall towards 14000 if Nikkei does not recover today. Shanghai (2181.73, -1.38) has fallen below the support near 2185-2190 before the release of the Chinese PMI which came out at 50.9. We may see it targeting 2100-2050.
Nifty (6178.35, -24.45) has fallen registering a low of 6116.60. It is testing support at current levels. We may see it breaking below the support and coming down to 6050-6000.
Gold (1335.30) is up and can target 1350. Silver (22.705) is also up. It is targeting 24 and can target 24.50 with the fall in the Gold-Silver ratio (58.81).
Copper (3.274) may find Support at 3.25 after falling sharply to 3.26 yesterday. A bounce to 3.30 might be possible while above 3.25.
Nymex WTI (97.42) is up today after registering a low of 96.16 after reports suggested increased demand from China. Brent (107.85) has fallen and is now testing resistance at current levels. The fluctuations in the oil prices have brought the Brent-WTI spread down to 10.44.
Euro (1.37850) targets 1.385 near term but crucial resistances coming up in 1.3850-4000 region which may push back the currency towards 1.37-1.36. We can see profit taking in these levels now. Dollar Index (79.208) has fallen and has chances of a further decline towards 78.9-78.7.
Pound (1.61890) mixed near term between Resistance at 1.6265 and Support at 1.61. Longer term might target 1.64. Dollar Yen (97.30) has fallen sharply and may test support near 96.80-60 on the downside. Near term support coming up near 97.00 from where it may bounce back. Overall it is likely to remain ranged sideways in the broad 97-100 channel. Aussie (0.96510) fell sharply from the 200-day MA Resistance yesterday. Fresh rallies may attract profit-taking.
R-currencies are mixed. Ringitt (3.153) and the Rand (9.758) are strong against the Dollar while the others have weakened a bit. Dollar Rupee (61.59) may trade in the 61.20-62.0 region for some time. If the 62.0 level breaks we may expect a rise towards 62.250.
The US-Japan 10Yr spread (1.89%) continues to look bearish, targeting 1.80% while below 1.90%. The German-US 10Yr Spread (-0.69%) has strong Resistance near -0.62%, unlikely to rise beyond that. The US 10Yr (2.49%) itself is headed down towards 2.35%.
The Indo-US 10Yr Spread (6.14%) has been climbing higher on lower US yields and could move further up towards 6.25-35%. FIIs continue to sell Indian debt. SEBI data shows an outflow of $1.67 bln so far.
Next week's RBI and FOMC meetings will be keenly watched, of course.
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US Trade Balance
...Expected -39.50 $ Bln ...Previous -39.15 $ Bln
14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US New Home Sales
...Expected 425 K ...Previous 421 K
...Actual 1.2% ...Previous 0.40 %
UK BOE Minutes
...Actual 0-0-9 % ...Previous 0-0-9 %
...Actual 1.00 % ...Previous 1.00 %
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."