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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: German Oct Business Sentiment registers its first MoM decline in six months; UK Q3 GDP meets expectations and grows at fastest pace in over 3 years


TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: German Oct Business Sentiment registers its first MoM decline in six months; UK Q3 GDP meets expectations and grows at fastest pace in over 3 years
Fri, 25 Oct 2013 5:15 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
-China money market rates continue to rise; 7 day repo fix +21bps to 4.88%; reports circulated that PBoC could inject liquidity thru reverse repos next week if rates get too high to avoid problems that were seen in June
-China PBoC launched prime interest rate for commercial lending to promote interest rate liberalization
-China PBoC said not viewing CNY appreciation as too quick but could intervene if it rises too fast
-Japan Sept CPI above expectations (YoY reading 1.1% vs. 0.9%e; Core CPI (ex food and energy) registered its first non-negative figure since 2008 when it came in at 0.0%
- Far East equities lower by weaker-than-expected Japanese earning reports and China growth uncertainties
- German IFO misses expectations with Business Sentiment registering its first MoM decline in six months
- UK Q3 Advance GDP comes in line with expectations (Q/Q 0.8% vs. 0.8%e and Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e); fastest pace since Q2 2010


***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply Narrow w/e Oct 14th (RUB): 7.92T v 7.85T prior
- (SG) Singapore Sept Industrial Production M/M: 3.7% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 9.3% v 5.5%e
- (FI) Finland Sept House Price Index M/M: -0.4 v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.6 v 0.8% prior
- (DE) Germany Aug Construction Order Y/Y: -5.0%; YTD: +1.4%
- (ES)) Spain Sept PPI M/M: +0.2 v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: +0.1 v -0.1% prior
- (TH) Thailand Sept Customs Trade Balance: $470M v $420Me; Customs Exports Y/Y: -7.0% v +0.5%e; Customs Imports Y/Y: -5.2% v +3.6%e
- (EU) ECB 0.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility (6th time in 7 sessions) vs. 0.0M prior; 53.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 50.2B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (AT) Austria Aug Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: -1.4% v -0.9% prior
- (SE) Sweden Oct Manufacturing Confidence: 101.2 v 96.2e; Consumer Confidence: 102.0 v 98.5e; Economic Tendency Survey: 101.6 v 98.9e
- (NL) Netherlands Oct Producer Confidence Index: -0.5 v -2.0e
- (SE) Sweden Sept Household Lending Y/Y: 4.8% v 4.8%e
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 172.1K v 172.1K tons prior
- (DE) Germany Oct IFO Business Climate: 107.4 v 108.0e; Current Assessment: 111.3 v 111.4e; Expectations Survey: 103.6 v 104.5e
- (EU) Euro Zone Sept M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.4%e; M3 3-month average: 2.2% v 2.3%e

- (IT) Italy Aug Retail Sales M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: +0.2 v -2.3%e
- (TW) Taiwan M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.5% v 5.4% prior
- (UK) Q3 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
- (UK) Aug Index of Services M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; 3M/3M: 0.6% v 0.5%e
- (MY) Malaysia Sept CPI Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.5%e
- (IS) Iceland Oct CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.9% prior

Fixed Income:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities***
Indices [EuroStoxx50 -0.40%
, FTSE 100 -0.10% at 6,708, DAX -0.20% at 8,964, CAC-40 -0.50% at 4,255, IBEX-35 -0.80% at 9,838, FTSE MIB -0.90% at 18,989, SMI -0.20% at 8,220, S&P 500 Futures -0.20% at 1,745]

Market Focal Points: European equity markets open lower following negative leads from Asia (Nikkei225 -2.8% Shanghai Composite -1.5%), China money market rates hit highs not seen since July, FTSE100 outperforms on banks and energy companies, FTSE MIB underperforms as Italy debt spreads widen, Big European Corporate Earnings (Electrolux, BASF, BBVA, Schneider Electric, Volvo, Solvay, Novozymes), European corporate results continue to be negatively impacted by currencies, UK GDP in line, Germany IFO data below ests, Upcoming US Corporate Earnings (Moody's, Procter & Gamble, UPS)

By Sector
- Industrials
[Volvo VOLVB.SE -6.5% (Q3 results below ests), Electrolux ELUXB.SE -5% (Q3 results below ests), Brembo BRE.IT -3.5% (share placement) Schneider Electric SU.FR -3.5% (cut outlook), Renault RNO.FR -3% (Q3 sales declined y/y) Solvay SOLB.BE -2% (Q3 results below ests); Saint-Gobain SGO.FR +2.5% (reaffirmed forecast), BASF BAS.DE +1% (Q3 results above ests)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Technicolor TCH.FR -6% (Q3 sales declined y/y), Kering KER.FR -2% (Q3 sales declined y/y), Adecco ADEN.CH -2.5% (broker commentary); USG USG.NL +3% (Q3 profits rose y/y), G4S GFS.UK +2% (management change)]
- Technology [SAP SAP.DE +2% (Microsoft earnings); Atos ATO.FR -1% (Q3 sales in line, reaffirmed outlook)]
- Healthcare [Novozymes NZYMB.DK -3% (cut sales forecast), UCB UCB.BE -2% (9-month sales declined y/y); Morphosys MOR.DE +3% (positive outlook)]
- Telecom [Belgacom BELG.BE -4%(Q3 sales below ests)]
- Financials [BBVA BBVA.ES -1.5% (Q3 revenues declined y/y, bad loans rose, cut dividend)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Wacker Chemie WCH.DE -5% (broker commentary)]
- Eurostoxx50 Sectors [Telecom -1%, Industrials -0.70%, Financials -0.6%, Consumer Cyclical -0.5%, Technology -0.5%, Consumer Non-cyclical -0.2%, Utilities -0.1%; Basic Materials +0.4%, Energy +0.1%]

Speakers:
- ECB's Asmussen
: Don't have any specific worry on exchange rates, reiterates view that currency within its historical band
- German IFO Economisr Wohlrabe noted that the decline in business sentiment was only a mild damper and did not change the current trend. Manufacturing production plans and export expectations have been revised higher and that forecasts showed continued rise in exports to the US despite the budget dispute
- UK Office of National Stats (ONS) stated that the domestic UK economy was growing at an annualized rate of 3.2%, but still 2.5% lower than before pre-crisis peak
- UK Treasury commented that the domestic recovery had real momentum, but economic risks remained; hard work was paying off and the country was back on the path towards prosperity.

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD continued to be on the defensive but a softer German IFO reading halted the slide (at least for now).
The Asian session saw further reports of reserve diversification out of the greenback and this has aided other currencies ( EUR, GBP and even AUD ). Various central banks appeared not too concern of FX price action at this time. ECB's Asmussen echoed Draghi comments from earlier this month when he noted that he did not have any 'specific worry' on exchange rates and reiterated view that currency was within its historical band since its launch in 1999 (0.82-1.60). The CNY continued to hit 20-year highs against the USD. Reports out of China that the CNY currency (Yuan) appreciation was not perceived as too fast but PBoC might intervene fx market if appreciation accelerated
The EUR/USD was capped at 1.38030 after German IFO missed expectations with Business Sentiment registering its first MoM decline in six months. Dealers noted that greater of concern was the drop in M3 and continuing drop in loans to private sector
- The GBP/USD got a small boost from the UK Q3 GDP reading. The pair tested 1.6240 in the session
- The negative Nikkei/yen cycle continued as a stronger Yen weighed on exporters and sent the Nikkei down 2% in the session to a two-week low. The USD/JPY remained below its 200-day moving average of 97.32

Political/In the Papers:
-(UK) BOE's Carney: Will make an assessment on rates at the appropriate time if unemployment unexpectedly declines to 7% faster than expected
- (UK) BoE's Carney: BoE to overhaul liquidity arrangements, which will make the overall system more resilient
-(UK) BoE's Miles: The increase in both confidence and economic activity seen recently could be self sustaining
- (CN) PBOC begins loan prime rate system, sets 1-yr prime lending rate at 5.71%; Reiterates to further promote interest rate liberalization.
-(CN) China's overnight repo rate opened at highest level since July 12th near 4.25%; the 7-day repo rate opened flat near 4.80%
- (CN) According to a financial press report, a PBoC source indicated that the central bank could resume OMOs if rates move too high.
-USD/CNY: (CN) Yuan rise is not perceived as too fast; PBoC may intervene fx market if appreciation accelerates - financial press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU-Japan economic partnership agreement negotiations
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment (3.0Be)
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (TR) Turkey Oct Industrial Confidence Index: No est v 108.5 prior; Capacity Utilization: No est v 75.4% prior
- 07:00 (EU) European Medicines Agency Releases Drug Approvals
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) to announce size of upcoming auctions
- 08:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Current Account Balance: -$2.3Be v -$5.5B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $4.8Be v $3.8B prior
- 08:30 (US) Sept Durable Goods Orders: +2.2%e v 0.1% prior; Durables Ex Transportation: +0.5%e v -0.1% prior; Capital Goods Orders Non-defense Ex Aircraft: 1.3%e v 1.5% prior; Capital Non-defense Ex Aircraft: 1.1%e v 1.3%; Durables Ex-Defense: No est v -0.1% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Preliminary Trade Balance: -$256.6Me v -$234.2M prior
- 09:55 (US) Oct Final University of Michigan Confidence: 75.0e v 75.2 prior
- 10:00 (US) Aug Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banixico) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Overnight Rate by 25bps to 3.50%
- 11:00 (FR) France PM Ayrault with Italy PM Letta in Paris
- 13:00 (DE) ECB's Asmussen in Milan
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 15.0% prior; Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v 20.1% prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 3.25%

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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Fri 24 Nov
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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