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Sunday October 27, 2013 - 17:01:28 GMT
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Slow Monday Calendar opens an active week
|Slow Monday Calendar opens an active week |
28 October 2013 00:00 gmt
| CALENDAR: Far East: NZ- Holiday- CPI. Europe: EZ/UK (Sun) Clocks Change. North America: US- Industrial Production. Pending Homes Sales. 2-yr Auction |
| EURUSD 1.3812
|| U.S. 2.50% -2bp
|| North America:Higher|
| EURJPY 134.43
|| Bund 1.75% -2bp
|| DE: DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6179
|| GILT 2.62 -1bp
|| GB: FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 97.33
|| JGB 0.62% +1bp
|| Asia Close Lower|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: Pending Homes Sales, Industrial Production
- Data we have seen in the latest week suggest that the
U.S. economy may be losing steam. Latest (September) Employment data showed that job growth has been stagnating and sentiment surveys are leveling out. Taken together this all suggests that Fed policy could remain on hold for a good while longer. Hopes for a March 2014 "taper" might be premature. No policy changes from the FOMC are expected this Wednesday, October 30.
- The 10yr bond yield tumbled to below as 2.50% from 2.84% before the budget/debt limit decision. Tumbling U.S. bond yields have undermined confidence in the USD. So now we are all following stocks. weak economic data and government leadership disarray equates to more Cool-Aid from the Fed (QE?) and that is seen as a stimulus for stocks. So bad news is good news is back as the paradigm.
- The data schedule this week is the usual end of month releases supplemented by delayed data releases due the government shutdown. Tuesday features key U.S. Retail Sales. Industrial Production data (both delayed) and the Conference Board Consumer Sentiment Report. Wednesday sees German Employment data, along with Fed and Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decisions.
- German Retail Sales, U.S. Personal Income and Weekly Jobless Claims are due on Thursday. Friday sees a holiday in the Eurozone, plus U.K. and U.S. October PMI reports.
- For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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