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Monday October 28, 2013 - 10:49:05 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Quiet start to trading week

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Quiet start to trading week
Mon, 28 Oct 2013 6:12 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- European clocks fell back on hour over the weekend; US clock to 'fall back' on Nov 3rd
- South Korea Consumer Confidence at 17-month high in Oct (106 vs. 102 prior)
- China's 7-day repo rate was down about 20bps in session, but Shibor rates set a touch firmer
- Yu Zhengsheng (fourth-ranked member in the elite Politburo Standing Committee) has vowed to support "unprecedented" economic and social reforms at an upcoming party meeting in November (third since a leadership transition last year)
- Worst storm in several years battered the UK, bringing heavy rain, hurricane-force gusts of wind and widespread transport disruption; market participation was light as a result
- Moody's analytics, consumer caution in the wake of the US govt shutdown likely to result in the worst holiday spending season of the last 3 years
- FOMC decision mid-week and likely to keep its language dovish

***Economic Data***
- (CH) SNB Sight Deposits for Week Ended Oct 25th (CHF):319.3B B v 320.5B prior
- (FI) Finland Oct Consumer Confidence Index: 3.8 v 7.0e; Business Confidence: -9 v -12 prior
- (ES) Spain Aug Total Mortgage Lending Y/Y: -38.1 v -31.5% prior; House Mortgage Approvals Y/Y: -41.7 v -42.7% prior
- (TW) Taiwan Sept Leading Index M/M: 0.5 v 0.4% prior; Coincident Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior
- (EU) ECB 0.0 borrowed in overnight loan facility (7th time in 8 sessions) vs. 0.0M prior; 51.3B parked in deposit facility vs. 53.2B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Condition
- (SE) Sweden Sept Trade Balance (SEK): 5.6B v 6.2Be
- (SE) Sweden Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.2% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 2.0%e
- (IT) Italy Oct Business Confidence: 97.3 v 96.0e; Economic Sentiment: 79.3 v 83.3 prior

- (NO) Norway Q3 Industrial Confidence: 5 v 3e
- (BR) Brazil Oct FGV Construction Costs M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e

Fixed Income:
(IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 2.25B vs. 2.25B indicated in 2015 CTZ; Avg Yield: 1.392% (lowest since May) v 1.623% prior


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities***
Indices [EuroStoxx 50 flat,
FTSE 100 +0.10% at 6725, DAX +0.10% at 8,997, CAC-40 -0.25% at 4,261, IBEX-35 -0.30% at 9,786, FTSE MIB +0.30% at 18,935, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1758 ]

Market Focal Points: Equity markets open higher following positive leads from the US and Asia, Best performing sectors include Basic Materials and Technology, TNT Express gains following Q3 earnings report, Spanish banks lag the overall financial sector, Little initial market impact from UK storm, Wed's US Fed decision

By Sector
- Industrials
[German automakers are mostly lower on broker commentary; Assa Abloy ASSAB.SE +3.5% (Q3 results above ests), TNT Express TNTE.NL +3.5% (Q3 sales in line)]
- Financials [Bankia BKIA.ES +2% (reported Q3 results), HannoverRe HNR1.DE +0.50% (broker commentary)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Pendragon PDG.UK +8% (outlook), Aggreko AGK.UK +3.5% (guided FY margins higher y/y), Lagardere MMB.FR +2% (talks related to Canal+); Intercontinental Hotel IHG.UK -1.5% (Sept Revs slowed)]
- Utilities [Iberdrola IBE.ES +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Technology
[Phoenix IT PNX.UK -10% (contract cancellation)]
- Healthcare [Epigenomics ECX.DE +13% (collaboration agreement), Evotec EVT.DE +4% (clinical milestone)]
- Basic Resources/Materials [ThyssenKrupp TKA.DE -1.7% (concerns related to US and Brazil asset sales)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Technology +1.1%, Basic Materials +0.7%, Telecoms +0.40%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.3%, Energy +0.20%, Utilities +0.10%, Financials +0.1%; Consumer Cyclical -0.50%, Industrials -0.3%]

Speakers:
- Euro group chief Dijsselbloem
stated that Spain was heading towards a recovery and did not believe ESM exit discussions would be very tough as balance sheets of Spanish banks had improved. Banking Union to be completed on schedule
- Press reports that Spain 2014 GDP growth could be as high as 1.5% (**Note current govt forecast is +0.7%)

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Risk appetite was the sentiment as the trading week comments. The USD maintains a soft tone ahead of the FOMC decision mid-week which was likely to keep its language dovish. The greenback consolidated not too far from current trend lows. EUR/USD holing above the 1.38 handle. USD/JPY at 97.70 just ahead the NY morning.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Noyer: Planned EU financial tax may threaten financial stability - FT interview
- (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Affirms his CDU party is unlikely to meet SPD's demands for higher taxes on the wealthy
- (IT) Fitch affirms Italy sovereign rating at BBB+; outlook Negative
- (IT) Italy centre right could split following Berlusconi's relaunch of the Forza party - financial press
- (IT) ECB's Asmussen: Italy is too large to be saved with outside help, Italy must conduct its reforms alone
-Moody's Credit Outlook report: ECB capital assessment is Negative for weak Italy banks

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 06:30 (DE) Germany to sell 3.0B in 12-month Bubills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Oct CBI Industrial Reported Sales: 32e v 34 prior
- 07:00 (IL) Israel to sell Bonds
- 07:00 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell up to 2.5B in 2018, 2019 and 2023 OLO Bonds
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bills
- 07:30 (ES) ECB's Linde (Spain) in Jerez
- 08:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON500M in Bonds
- 08:15 (ES) Bank of Spain Dep Gov Lozano in Oviedo
- 09:15 (US) Sept Industrial Production M/M: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior; Capacity Utilization: 78.0%e v 77.8% prior; Manufacturing Production: 0.3%e v 0.7% prior
- 09:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 7.3B in 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month bills
- 10:00 (US) Sept Pending Home Sales M/M: +0.0%e v -1.6% prior; Y/Y: 3.5%e v 2.9% prior
- 10:30 (US) Oct Dallas Fed Manufacturer Activity: 9.0e v 12.8 prior
- 10:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50%
- 10:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $4.25-5.25B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $65B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 11:30 (IL) Israel Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 1.00%

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 2-Year Notes
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Industrial Production M/M: no est v -1.5% prior; Y/Y: +2.5%e v -0.4% prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan Sept Jobless Rate: 4.0%e v 4.1% prior

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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