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Tuesday October 29, 2013 - 03:41:35 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 29-Oct -2013 -0338 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

EQUITIES
Dow (15568.93, -1.35) was stable yesterday, marking time ahead of the FOMC tomorrow. The overall trend is up, targeting 15800. Nasdaq (3940.13, -3.23) has dipped a bit but it remains in an overall uptrend targeting 4000. Dax (8978.65, -7.09) has also dipped a bit as it now faces trend Resistance near 9000 on the Weekly Candles. A break thereof is needed in order to achieve 9100-9200.

Nikkei (14377.93, -18.11) has dipped after closing 300 points higher yesterday. It has support at the 21-SMA on the Weekly Line chart and could move back up to 15000 while above 14300. Shanghai (2159.99, +26.12) is up on easier money market rates but could be bearish overall, especially on a break below 2125.

Nifty (6101, -43.80) fell sharply yesterday from the resistance on the Weekly and 3-day line charts, ahead of the RBI Meeting today. A break below 6050 and we may see it targeting 5900-5850. Let's see if the RBI confirms our overall bearishness.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1359.60, +7.40) is up, trying to break Trend Resistances on the 3-Day and Weekly candles. The target of 1400 can be achieved if it moves past the resistances. Silver (22.59, -0.05) is stable and is consolidating for now. It has come up to a resistance on the Weekly Line chart and can move down from here.

Copper (3.2525, -0.0165) continues to trend sideways above crucial Support at 3.25. It can target 3.30 or higher if the support holds.

Brent (109.13, -0.48) rose sharply yesterday from the support on the Daily Line chart registering a high of 109.68. It has the 13-Day and 21-Day MA support at current levels and can go up to 112-113 if the support holds. Nymex WTI (98.47, -0.21) is up sharply from last week's low of 96 and can target 100-101. The sharp rise in Brent prices have brought up the Brent-WTI spread to 10.64.

CURRENCIES
US Dollar Index (79.386) is a little strong before the FOMC meeting starting today. The overall trend remains bearish however, while below 79.82.

Euro (1.3779) has dipped a bit from 1.3793 but remains in an uptrend overall targeting 1.385-1.4000. EURGBP (0.8561) has bounced sharply from the 200-day MA. If this moves up further we may see the Euro strengthening. Pound (1.6092) has fallen sharply forming a Double top on the Daily charts, with chances of an eventual dip towards 1.6000.

Dollar-Yen (97.634) is caught between the 200-Day and the 21-day MA. It is in a narrow sideways movement within the 97-99 range and may continue so for some more time. The Aussie (0.95383) has come down to test the 21-day MA. Failure to bounce from here could lead to further fall towards 0.945-0.940.

R-currencies are mixed. Rand (9.84460) and the Ruble (31.919) are weak while the Real (2.1795) is strong. The Rupee (61.52) and the Ringgit (3.139) are stable. Dollar Rupee (61.52) has equal chances of a movement in the 60.50-62.50 region today breaking its recent range.

INTEREST RATES
Chinese money market rates have come off a bit after having risen strongly last week. The PBOC injected money through Reverse Repos yesterday.

Raghu Rajan has the "unenviable" task of doing something about stagflation today, as admitted by the RBI yesterday. A 25bp hike in Repo and a 25bp cut in the MSF rate is expected today. The 10Yr GOI (8.66%) has moved up from 8.50%, as expected, but might not rise much past 8.75%.

We have to see whether he says anything on the FCNR and Oil Swap Windows.

Slight uptick in the US 10Yr to 2.53%. Overall trend remains bearish towards 2.25%. Markets await the FOMC tomorrow. After that, we have the Bank of Japan meeting on Thursday.

 

DATA TODAY
23:30 GMT or 5:00 IST JP Unemp
...Expected 4.00 % ...Previous 4.10 % ...Actual 4.00%

5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI Repo Rate
...Expected 7.50 % ...Previous 7.50 %

5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI Reverse Repo Rate
...Expected 6.50 % ...Previous 6.50 %

5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI CRR
...Expected 4.00 % ...Previous 4.00 %

5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI MSF
...Expected 9.50 % ...Previous 9.50 %


DATA YESTERDAY


US Industrial Production
...Actual 0.60 % ...Previous 0.40 %

US Capacity Utilization
...Actual 78.30 % ...Previous 77.80 %

 

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