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Tuesday October 29, 2013 - 10:40:16 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Constructive data in Europe still gives way to cautious trading in session; Retail sales registers its first rise in 39 months; UK Mortgage Approvals at 5-year highs

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Constructive data in Europe still gives way to cautious trading in session; Retail sales registers its first rise in 39 months; UK Mortgage Approvals at 5-year highs
Tue, 29 Oct 2013 6:21 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- China PBoC conducted CNY13B in 7-day reverse repos (first liquidity injection in two weeks; Shanghai fails to respond
- Japan Sept Retail Trade data hits 16-month high (3.1% vs. 1.8%e)
- India Central Bank (RBI) again raises Interest Rates to combat high inflation (2nd hike within a month) and adds liquidity to banking sector after cutting Marginal Standing Facility by another 25bps to 8.75% (3rd cut within a month)
- Spain Sept Retail sales registers its first rise in 39 months
- UK Sept Mortgage Approvals beats expectations and hits highest level since Feb 2008
- Italy Q3 GDP seen continuing its contraction trend (would be 9th straight quarterly decline)


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Oct Small Business Confidence: 50.8 v 49.8 prior
- (IN) India Central Bank (RBI) raised its Repurchase Rate by 25bps to 7.75% (as expected) and left its Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) unchanged at 4.00% (as expected)
- (ZA) South Africa Sept M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.0% v 6.9%e; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 7.6% v 7.7%e
- (FR) France Oct Consumer Confidence: 85 v 86e
- (HU) Hungary Sept Unemployment Rate: 9.8% v 9.9%e
- (ES) Spain Sept Adjusted Retail Sales WDA Y/Y: +2.2% v +2.1%e (first rise in 39 months); Retail Sales Y/Y: +2.2% v -4.2% prior
- (EU) ECB 0.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility (8th time in 9 sessions) vs. 0.0M prior; 51.3B parked in deposit facility vs. 51.3B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (ZA) South Africa Q3 Unemployment Rate: 24.7% v 25.6%e
- (UK) Sept Net Consumer Credit: 0.4B v 0.7Be; Net Lending 1.0B v 1.3Be
- (UK) Sept Mortgage Approvals: 66.7K v 66.0K; highest since Feb 2008
- (UK) Sept M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.5%e; M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualized: 4.3% v 4.4%e


Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 8.0B vs. 8.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.629% v 0.781% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.82 x v 1.45x prior

- (EU) ECB allotted 89.3B in 7-day main Refi Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 90Be

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities***
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.20%,
FTSE 100 +0.40% at 6,753, DAX +0.10% at 8,989, CAC-40 +0.30% at 4,263, IBEX-35 +0.70% at 9,804, FTSE MIB +1.4% at 19,091, SMI -0.10% at 8,284, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,758]

- Market Focal Points: European banks decline after reporting earnings (Lloyds, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Standard Chartered), FTSE 100 gains on BP earnings, Shanghai Composite declines despite China liquidity injection, Apple declines on quarterly margins, Upcoming US earnings (Nokia, Pfizer, Cummins, Valero)

By Sector
- Financials
[UBS UBSN.CH -5.5% (Q3 results below ests), Lloyds LLOY.UK -3% (reported Q3 results, broker commentary), Deutsche Bank DBK.DE -2.5% (Q3 profits below ests), Standard Chartered STAN.UK -1% (cautious trading update); HannoverRe HNR1.DE +1% (broker commentary)]
- Industrials [Bauer B5A.DE -15% (profit warning), Michelin ML.FR -3% (9-month sales declined y/y); Ferrovial FER.ES +2% (9-month profits rose y/y)]
- Energy [BP BP.UK +3.5% (Q3 production rose y/y, raised dividend)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Next Fifteen Communications NFC.UK -20% (profit warning)]
- Eurostoxx50 Sectors [Telecom +0.4%,Technology +0.4%, Utilities +0.4%, Energy +0.4%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.4%, Basic Materials +0.4%; Financials -0.1%, Industrials -0.1%,Consumer Cyclical flat]

Speakers:
- Spain Deputy Budget Min Curras
stated that the country would meet govt GDP forecast and budget target for 2013 and was up to each autonomous regions to set tax rates and meet deficit target
- Italy Stats Agency (ISTAT) Q3 GDP declined (**Note: would be the 9th straight quarterly contraction)
- France Industry Min Montebourg reiterated view that EUR currency was too strong
- Czech Central Bank Vice Gov Tomsik: FX intervention was still very probably and would not hesitate to ease policy further
- South Africa released its planned changes to draft mining and oil laws in which it would take a 20% free stake in energy projects and might secure further 30% stake in energy projects
- South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Financial Stability Review: Country's banking sector remained profitable and well-capitalized
- RBI commented after its rate decision that Wholesale Price Index inflation was expected to remain higher than current levels through most of the remaining part of the year, warranting an appropriate policy response. Retail inflation to remain at or above 9% without policy action. It forecasted FY13/14 GDP at 5.0%
- India Central Bank (RBI) Gov Rajan stated that it would act accordingly on rates but one could not assume that future action would be higher. He reiterated that India could not live with high CPI levels and the central bank would act to bring inflation down to manageable level. He expected inflation to be lower than 9% given recent RBI action
- China PBoC stated that money market liquidity were still adequate and its management of would be stable in 2013. It was advising investing institutions to reduce extreme leverage to avoid liquidity shocks. Main reasons for recent rate rise was the market's underestimation of tax payments and other short-term factors (Seasonal factors)
- South Korea Fin Min Hyun: Economy has passed a turning point in recovery; Affirms 2013 GDP to be 2.7% as forecast
- China to hold the third plenary session of the 18th Central Committee between Nov 9-12th

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD continued to consolidate following last week's soft tone and was on a bit supportive footing in today's session. The EUR/USD retraced from 1.38 after its inability to make fresh 2-year highs. The key support still seen at 1.3700.
- Morgan Stanley FX strategist commented on the yen and was cautiously optimistic that the Third Arrow of Abenomics, as well as the positive risk environment, would weigh on JPY.
- The AUD/USD maintained a soft tone into Europe after RBA Gov Stevens employed some verbal intervention and forecasted that the AUD to be "materially lower in the future". Analysts also noted that further signs that China was tightening monetary conditions via the currency and interest rates were likely to increase the challenges for the commodity-related currencies

Political/In the Papers:
- (UK) BoE's Miles: Raising interest rates before unemployment declines meaningfully would be 'pretty catastrophic' - press; Storm in the UK is likely to have a small impact on GDP
-(UK) BOE's Dale: Unclear if market curves have been warranted or not, forward guidance does provide more transparency and is conditional on economic outlook; Option of further QE remains on the table at MPC meetings
-(GR) Greece govt preparing for the arrival of troika technical team on Oct 29th - Greek press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (FI) Finland to sell up to 1.5B in Sept 2018 and July 2042 bonds
- (US) Federal Reserve FOMC begin 2-day Meeting
- (CA) Canada 2020 conference on relationship with China
- (EU) EU's Rehn in SF
- (US) Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting
- (ES) Spain Sept YTD Budget Balance: No est v -47.6B prior
- (BR) Brazil Sept Central Govt Budget Balance (BRL): No est v 0.1B prior
- 06:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills

- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Sept Property Prices M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.8% prior
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Sept Retail sales Volume M/M: No est v -1.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.6% prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit tender; Expected to drain 188B
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Sept Manufacturing Index Y/Y: +2.3%e v -2.0% prior
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: 10.2%e v 12.0% prior
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Sept Total Copper Production: No est v 492.9K tons prior
- 08:30 (US) Sept PPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.6%e v 1.4% prior
- 08:30 (US) Sept PPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) Sept Retail Sales Advance M/M: 0.0%e v 0.2% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.4%e v 0.1% prior
; Retails Sales ex auto &Gas: 0.5%e v 0.1% prior; Control Group: 0.4%e v 0.2% prior
- 08:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 2.578T prior Outstanding Loans M/M: No est v 1.3% prior; Private Banks Lending: No est v 1.271T prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: No est v 7.1% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.0%e v 0.2% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: -0.5%e v +0.9% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni in budget committee
- 09:00 (US) Aug S&P/ CaseShiller 20 City M/M: 0.60%e v 0.62% prior; Y/Y: 12.40%e v 12.39% prior; Home Price Index NSA: No est v 162.49 prior
- 09:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) Interest Rate Decision: expected to cut Base Rate by 20bps to 3.40%
- 10:00 US) Aug Business Inventories: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior
- 10:00 (US) Oct Consumer Confidence Index: 75.0e v 79.7 prior

- 10:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $40B in 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell Bills and Bonds
- 12:00 (IT) Italy PM Letta with China Foreign Min Wang Yi
- 13:00 (AT) ECB's Nowotny (Austria) in Vienna
- 13:00 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Floden (dove)
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes
- 13:40 (CA) Bank of Canada Dep Gov Cote speaks in Winnipeg
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Sept Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: +1.8%e v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: +5.5%e v -0.4% prior

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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