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Tuesday October 29, 2013 - 21:02:38 GMT
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NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR

NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR

Imre Speizer


In another case of bad news is good news, the S&P500 is up 0.4% to a fresh record high, "helped" by some uninspiring US economic data. Consumer confidence was well short of expectations. The market expects such sluggishness in the economy to keep the Fed's money printing programs intact for some time. US interest rates fell slightly but the US dollar was surprisingly strong.

6:14AM, 30 Oct 2013


Market Wrap:

Global market sentiment: In another case of bad news is good news, the S&P500 is up 0.4% to a fresh record high, “helped” by some uninspiring US economic data. PPI, retail sales, and business inventories were close to expectations but consumer confidence was well short of expectations. The market expects such sluggishness in the economy to keep the Fed’s money printing programs intact for some time. US interest rates fell slightly but the US dollar was surprisingly strong.

Interest rates: US 10yr treasury bond yields fell from 2.54% (just before the US data releases) to 2.50%. A 5yr auction went well, awarded at market yield.

Australian 3yr government bond yields (implied by futures) eked a narrow range of 2.98%-3.00%, sitting at a one month low. The 10yr yield slipped from 3.95% to 3.93%.

Currencies: The US dollar index fell in response to the US data but later rebounded to a one-week high, outperforming all the majors on the day. EUR initially rose from 1.3755 to 1.3813, helped by both the weak US data and ECB Nowotny downplaying the chance of another rate cut, but then curiously fell to 1.3737. USD/JPY rose from 97.47 to 98.28. AUD extended its recent slide into a fifth day, falling from 0.9520 to 0.9472 – a two-week low. NZD similarly fell from 0.8280 to 0.8234. AUD/NZD ranged between 1.1484 and 1.1530, making a three-day low.

Economic  Wrap:

The October U.S. consumer confidence drop to 71.2 extended the September decline to 80.2 (was 79.7) from 81.8 in August and a prior 82.1 cycle-high from June that marked the strongest figure since January of 2008.

U.S. September retail sales dipped 0.1%, but were up 0.4% excluding autos. There were no revisions to the August headline 0.2% sales increase, and 0.1% core gain. For the "control group," sales excluding autos, gas, and building materials were up 0.5% after a 0.2% August gain.

U.S. business inventories tracked estimates with a 0.3% August gain that followed an unrevised 0.4% July increase.

The U.S. Case Shiller home price index rose 1.3% to 164.53 (nsa) in August for the 20-City composite index, from a downwardly revised 162.39 in July (was 162.49).

U.S. PPI slipped 0.1% in September, and was up 0.1% excluding food and energy. There were no revisions to August's 0.3% headline gain and unchanged core rate.

Market Outlooks:

Event risk today: The local calendars are again light. NZ PM Key speaks in Wellington and the RBNZ publishes its currency flows. Australia has new home sales. The Eurozone has a range of sentiment surveys. The US has CPI and private sector payrolls, as well as the FOMC decision which will be watched for changes to the Fed’s outlook on the economy.

NZD/USD 1 day: This downward correction which started on 22 Oct targets 0.8200 during the next few days.

NZD/USD 1-3 month: NZ positive economic outlook, the Fed’s delay in tapering QE, plus a tarnished US dollar following the fiscal squabble, should all support NZD/USD during the next few months towards 0.8675 (30 April peak).

AUD/USD 1 day: This downward correction which started on 23 Oct remains in progress and targets 0.9410 next.

AUD/USD 1-3 month: A more neutral sounding RBA and some encouraging data, the Fed’s delay in tapering QE, plus a tarnished US dollar following the fiscal squabble, should all support AUD/USD during the next few months beyond 0.9790 (3 June peak).

AUD/NZD 1 day: The 1.1500 level is breaking down and 1.1450 beckons.

AUD/NZD 1-3 month: A 1.1200-1.1660 sideways range since July is in formation. However, longer term relative fundamentals (e.g. RBA possibly easing further vs RBNZ hiking) favour the NZD over a multi-month horizon such that a fall below 1.1200 is expected by early 2014.

NZ swap yields 1 day: In response to changes in US and Australian bond yields overnight (see above) the 2yr should unchanged at 3.38% and the 10yr should open down `1bp at 4.78%.

NZ  swap yields 1-3 month: The current downward corrections in yields should persist for a few more weeks, but the 2yr is not expected to fall below 3.10%. By Dec-2013 the 2yr could reach 3.80% based on NZ’s improving fundamentals and eventual RBNZ tightening in 2014.



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