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Wednesday October 30, 2013 - 10:54:49 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Hope that the European economy might be at last turning the corner; focus turns to FOMC decision (very unlikely to lead to a policy change)

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Hope that the European economy might be at last turning the corner; focus turns to FOMC decision (very unlikely to lead to a policy change)
Wed, 30 Oct 2013 6:21 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Japan industrial production returns to growth in September (1.5% vs. 1.8%e)
- (CN) China 7-day repo rate rises by over 55bps to near 5.6% (highest since late June), 1-day repo rate up about 60bps; Shanghai Composite rises 1.5% as analyst note rising money rates doesn't signal PBoC tightening; China economy is stabilizing
- Continued hope that the European economy might be at last turning the corner. Spain Q3 GDP registers its first growth in 9 quarters
- German unemployment rises for the third straight month while its inflation moves to negative territory on a monthly basis
- Italy 5-year and 10-year auction results were solid with lower borrowing costs and higher bid-to-cover rations
- Today's FOMC decision very unlikely to lead to a policy change
- ADP private sector employment estimate will provide the first indication of the indirect impact of the shutdown on employment

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Sept Vehicle Production Y/Y: +13.0% v -7.6% prior
- (CH) Swiss Sept UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.56 v 1.32 prior
- (DE) Germany Sept ILO Employment: 41.842 v 41.804M prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.2 v 5.2% prior
- (ES) Spain Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: +0.1% v +0.1%e (first growth in 9 quarters); Y/Y: -1.2% v -1.2%e
- (ES) Spain Oct Preliminary CPI Y/Y: -0.1% v +0.3%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.4%e
- (DE) Germany Oct CPI Saxony M/M: -0.3% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.5% prior
- (CH) Swiss Oct KOF Leading Indicator: 1.72 v 1.60e; 13-month high
- (EU) ECB 1M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 0.0M prior; 50.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 51.3B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (AT) Austria Sept PPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.1% prior
- (SE) Sweden Aug Non-Manual Workers Wages Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.6% prior
- (DE) Germany Oct Unemployment Change: +2K v 0Ke (third straight monthly rise); Unemployment Rate: 6.9% v 6.9%e
- (DE) Germany Oct CPI Brandenburg M/M: -0.2% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.3% prior
- (DE) Germany Oct CPI Hesse M/M: -0.2% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.1% prior
- (DE) Germany Oct CPI Bavaria M/M: -0.4 v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.4% prior
- (NO) Norway Aug AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.5% v 3.6%e
- (NO) Norway Sept Retail Sales W/Auto Fuel M/M: 0.7% v 0.5%e
- (IS) Iceland Q3 Unemployment Rate: 4.4% v 6.8% prior
- (DE) Germany VDMA: Sept machine orders Y/Y: -6.0% v +6.0% prior; YTD -1.0%
- (UK) Oct Lloyds Business Barometer: 63 v 57 prior
- (DE) Germany Oct CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: -0.1 v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.4 v 1.5% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Oct Business Climate Indicator: -0.01 v -0.19e; Consumer Confidence: -14.5 v -14.5e; Economic Confidence: 97.8 v 97.2e; Industrial Confidence: -4.8 v -6.5; Services Confidence: -3.7 v -2.8e
- (BR) Brazil Oct FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: 0.9% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 5.3% v 5.3%e

Fixed Income:
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.59% vs. $0.0M prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 6.0B vs. 6.0B indicated in 5-year and 10-year BTP Bonds
- Sold 3.0B v 3.0B indicated in Dec 3.5% 2018 BTPs; Avg Yield: 2.89% v 3.38% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.65x v 1.43x prior
- Sold 3.0B v 3.0B indicated in Mar 4.5% 2024 BTPs; Avg Yield: 4.11% v 4.50% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.53x v 1.38x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 1.9B in 3-month Refi Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 2.7Be

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities***
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.50%,
FTSE 100 +0.50% at 6,807, DAX +0.40% at 9,056, CAC-40 +0.60% at 4,302, IBEX-35 +0.80% at 9,945, FTSE MIB +0.90% at 19,422, SMI +0.30% at 8,263, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,771 ]

Market Focal Points: Certain European markets near record highs tracking gains in the US and Asia, Big European Earnings (Barclays, Clariant, Eni, Volkswagen, Sanofi, Statoil, TomTom), Energy sector outperforms on results from ENI, Fed decision later today

By Sector
- Industrials
[Vossloh VOS.DE +5% (Q3 sales rose y/y), Volkswagen VOW3.DE +4% (Q3 profits above forecast, reaffirmed outlook), Clariant CLN.CH +3.5% (Q3 profits above ests, asset sale)]
- Financials [Barclays BARC.UK +3% (Q3 profits in line), UniCredit UCG.IT +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Energy [Eni ENI.IT +3% (Q3 profits above ests, buyback)]
- Healthcare [Sanofi SAN.FR +1.5% (FY forecast in line)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Next NXT.UK +6% (Q3 sales +4.3%), Lookers LOOK.UK +4.5% (positive outlook), TomTom2 TOM2.NNL +4% (raised outlook); Pearson PSON.UK -3% (cautious outlook)]
- Basic Resources/Materials [African Barrick Gold ABG.UK (Q3 production +11%)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Consumer Cyclical +1.8%, Energy +1.7%, Utilities +0.9%, Industrial +0.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.1%, Telecom +0.1%, Technology +0.1%; Financials -0.1%, Basic Materials -0.10%]

Speakers:
- Italy PM Letta:
Sees Italy economy recovering by year end
- Spain PM Rajoy: EU banking union moving in the right direction
- ECB Q3 Lending Survey Banks' access to retail and wholesale funding improved in Q3 across all funding categories. Net 5% of banks tightened credit standards v 7% q/q. It expected loan demand to pick up in Q4
- Bank of Italy Q3 Lending Survey was slightly less restrictive in quarter while loan demand remained weak. It expected a sharp pickup in Q4 mortgage demand
- China President Xi Jinping: To increase supply of affordable housing
- China Commerce Ministry spokesperson: Still face uncertainty in foreign trade but reiterates 2014 Foreign trade to maintain stable growth
- India Central Bank (RBI) Gov Rajan: We think we have done enough on rate hikes, will wait and watch economy
- Japan GPIF pension fund panel spokesperson stated that it did not discuss whether to review bond holdings at today's meeting and might need only one more meeting to decide upon changes

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Dealers noted that price action was likely to be driven by month end flows and the USD maintained a slight bid into the end of Oct.
- FOMC likely to be a non-event but market participants would be looking for clues on how the Fed viewed the recent US Govt shutdown and the potential impact on Q4 growth
- European pairs held tight ranges against the USD. Dealers were eyeing GBP/USD and whether the pair could hold above the 1.60 handle as a barometer for European currencies.
- NZD initially fell in Asia after reports citing Moody's analyst suggested that the rating agency was close to joining Fitch and S&P in lowering New Zealand rating to AA from AAA.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Nowotny (Austria): There is no realistic prospect for a rate cut, there are no tools available for the ECB to use against a strong EUR; current ECB interest rate is fine for all eurozone nations; ECB has room to maneuver on liquidity needs, but not on interest rates; We certainly do not welcome EUR appreciation, but we have to live with it.
-(IT) Italy govt cuts 2013 GDP forecast to -1.8% from -1.7%, raises 2014 forecast to +1.1% from +1.0% prior
-(UK) BoE's Carney: Growth in the UK has recently come from the household sector and has not been evenly spread; will seek to be vigilant on lending practices - interview; Policy will not be tightened until recovery has been deemed sustainable
-(CN) China may announce property tax reform at plenary meeting in Nov - Chinese press
-(CN) China 1-year bonds yields up over 25bps on the day to a record 4.06%
- (CN) China 7-day repo rate rises by over 55bps to near 5.6% (highest since late June), 1-day repo rate up about 60bps
- (JP) BOJ likely to raise FY14/15 GDP forecasts - Japanese press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CH) Swiss government meeting
- (TR) Japan PM Abe in Turkey
- (EU) EU's Barnier at event in Brussels
- (EU) Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem with Poland Dep PM
- (DE) Germany Oct CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.2% prior
- (BE) Belgium Oct CPI M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.9% prior
- 06:30 (PT) ECB's Costa (Portugal) speaks at OMFIF Event in London
- 06:30 (DE) Germany to sell 4.0B in 2% 2023 bunds
- 06:30 (HU) Hungary to buy back Bonds
- 07:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel CSU/CDU holds coalition talks with SPD
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 25th: No est v -0.6% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Sept PPI Manufacturing M/M: No est v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 6.0% prior
- 07:00 (PT) Portugal Sept Industrial Production M/M: No est v 8.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.6% prior
- 07:00 (PT) Portugal Sept Retail Sales M/M: No est v 4.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.1% prior
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Sept PPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.2% prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Sept Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v -1.1% prior; Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v 1.7% prior
- 07:45 (NL) Netherlands PM Rutte in London
- 07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (RU) Russia to sell RUB10B in Aug 2023 OFZ; Yield guidance seen between 7.29-7.34%
- 08:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 08:00 (NO) Norway Gov begins budget process
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Sept Unemployment Rate: 5.8%e v 5.7% prior
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Sept Budget Balance (ZAR): -9.0Be v -1.8B prior
- 08:15 (US) Oct ADP Employment Change: +150Ke v +166K prior
- 08:30 (US) Sept CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) Sept CPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.8% prior

- 08:30 (US) Sept CPI NSA: 234.073e v 233.877 prior; CPI Core Index SA: 234.700e v 234.302 prior
- 09:00 (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni on budget
- 09:00 (DE) Germany Oct Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.0%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.4% prior
- 09:00 (DE) Germany Oct Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.6% prior
- 10:00 (BE) Belgium Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.0% prior
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency Flows
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 7-Year Notes
- 14:00 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 0.25%
- 14:00 (DE) ECB's Weidmann (Germany)

- 14:30 (DE) German Bundesbank member Nagel in London
- 15:00 (DE) ECB's Asmussen in Stuttgart
- 15:00 (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni
- 16:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.50%

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



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