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Wednesday October 30, 2013 - 15:49:40 GMT
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Wed, 30 Oct 2013 11:25 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 25th: +6.4 v -0.6% prior
- (PT) Portugal Sept Industrial Production M/M: -11.3 v 8.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.3 v 0.4% prior
- (PT) Portugal Sept Retail Sales M/M: -6.2 v +4.5% prior; Y/Y: -2.1% v -0.4% prior
- (IE) Ireland Sept PPI M/M: -0.2 v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: +0.5% v -1.4% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Sept Electricity Production Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.1% prior; Electricity Consumption Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.7% prior
- (DE) Germany Oct CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: -0.2% v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2% prior
- (BR) Brazil Sept PPI Manufacturing M/M: 0.6% v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 5.9% v 6.0% prior
- (CL) Chile Sept Unemployment Rate: 5.7% v 5.8%e
- (ZA) South Africa Sept Budget Balance (ZAR): -10.4B v -9.0Be
- (US) Oct ADP Employment Change: +130K v +150Ke
- (US) Sept CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
- (US) Sept CPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.8%e
- (US) Sept CPI NSA: 234.149 v 234.086e; CPI Core Index SA: 234.589 v 234.700e
- (DE) Germany Oct Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.4%e
- (DE) Germany Oct Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5%e
- (BE) Belgium Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.0% prior
- (US) DOE Crude: +4.09M v -1Me; Gasoline: -1.71M v -Me; Distillate: -3.06M v -0.5Me

- Equity trading has been choppy this morning as investors digest the weak October ADP jobs data and position themselves ahead of this afternoon's Fed decision. Nobody expects any real changes out of the Fed, with a dovish tone more or less inevitable. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.11%, the S&P500 is flat and the Nasdaq is down 0.12%.

- The October ADP employment report missed expectations and bodes ill for nonfarm payrolls next Friday. The September number was revised down to 145K from 166K. The last three ADP reports have overstated the initial NFP number by an average of 34K per month. ADP warned the government shutdown and debt limit game hurt the already softening job market in October, and any further weakening would signal rising unemployment. The dollar softened in the wake of the report, with EUR/USD testing as high as 1.3775 in the wake of the data.

- Shares of Western Union are down 14% as of writing (well off the earlier 19% swoon) after the firm warned that costs tied to regulatory compliance will keep operating profits flat next year. Note that the firm's Q3 results were in line although it did narrow its FY13 guidance.

- Game developer Electronic Arts is up 8% after the firm crushed expectations in its Q2 report and slightly raised its FY outlook. Meanwhile rival Take Two Interactive fell as much as 5.5% (and bounced back to -2%) after the firm saw revenue decline significantly on a y/y basis, ex a few days of Grand Theft Auto sales. With the latter included, revenue was very strong. TTWO hiked its FY14 view on the strong GTA numbers.

- Shares of tech darlings Yelp and LinkedIn are down about 6% a piece. LinkedIn's results were pretty good across the board, and the firm even hiked its FY13 outlook. However investors were fixated on the guidance for softness in the firm's Q4 revenue outlook. Yelp surprised investors with a slightly bigger than expected quarterly loss.

- Homebuilder Ryland is down 5% despite some decent numbers in its earnings report. Earnings soared on a y/y basis and met expectations, while revenue grew more than 60% y/y. Home sales and orders grew, however revenue growth was slightly less than expected. The other major homebuilders are in the red this morning on the news.

- Among other notable gainers, Level 3 Communications is up 8.7% after disclosing a smaller-than-expected Q3 loss and predicting an even better result in Q4. Sealed Air is up 7% after topping expectations and hiking its FY13 view. Digital Realty Trust is down 13% after missing expectations and cutting its FY view. The continuing economic softness hit office supply firm ACCO Brands, where revenues fell slightly y/y and the firm cut its FY guidance.

***Looking Ahead***
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 7-Year Notes
- 14:00 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 0.25%
- 14:00 (DE) ECB's Weidmann (Germany)
- 14:30 (DE) German Bundesbank member Nagel in London
- 15:00 (DE) ECB's Asmussen in Stuttgart
- 15:00 (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni
- 16:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.50%
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Monetary Policy Statement; Expected to leave Interest Rates and Monetary base unchanged at 0.10% and 270T respectively




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 15 Oct 2018
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
Tue 16 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
Wed 17 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 09:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Thu 18 Oct 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 19 OCt 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/ Retail Sales

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