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Thursday October 31, 2013 - 03:41:33 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 31-Oct -2013 -0340 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

EQUITIES
Dow (15618.76, -0.39%) fell after the US kept the stimulus in pace. It is in an uptrend now targeting 15800. Nasdaq (3930.62, -0.55%) has fallen but is in an overall uptrend and may target 4000. There are also chances of testing support near 3900 on the downside.
Dax (9010.27, -0.13%) has come off from resistance at 9070. If this holds we may see a fall back to 8900. Else it could rise to 9100-9200.

Nikkei (14466.73, -0.25%) has dipped a bit but is overall stable. It may rise steadily towards near term resistance near 14800. Shanghai (2144.71, -0.73%) has fallen quite a bit but faces 21-Week MA at current levels. If this holds it may rise up towards 2200.

Nifty (6251.70) shot up 30 points and yesterday as foreign investors pumped in money into the Indian stock market fearing the result of the FOMC meeting. Its further move seems bullish. Chances of a rise towards 6500 may be expected.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1339.10, -0.76%) has dipped a little and may consolidate for a while. It is testing resistance at current levels on the 3-day.
Silver (22.43, -2.41%) is stable and is testing resistance on the weekly at current levels. If this breaks it may rise up to 24 else it may fall to 21.
Copper (3.3130) has been consolidating for quite some time now and may rise up towards 3.35. A rise past 3.37 could take it higher towards 3.40.

Tough time for the oil market. The Nymex-Brent is widening further. Brent (109.69) is on a rise while Nymex WTI (96.65) is falling on increase in US stockpiles. The 200-day MA has been very effective in keeping the WTI low. It may test support

CURRENCIES
Euro (1.3730) kept its corrective mode intact but did not fall vertically as such. The U.S. Fed announcement of the continuation of the stimulus and the absence of any clarity on the real state of economy in the last six weeks, proved to be a dampener of the sentiments. It did nothing for the Euro to help it break the range we are watching, of 1.3650-1.3850 and it may keep moving inside the range for some more time.

Dollar Index (79.72) achieved the target of 79.80 on the back of the news of QE continuing. We will keep an eye on the price action around the strong resistance around 80-80.15 as a move past that area could take the price to the next major supply zone around 80.75-80.95.

Pound (1.6034) remained mainly unchanged as it kept the range of 1.6020-1.6260 intact even after the FOMC meet. It took support from exactly the 1.60 area mentioned yesterday morning and gave a small bounce. The range bound action may continue.

Dollar Yen (98.47) is looking the strongest among all the pairs as it kept trading above 98. A move above 98.70-99 now would push it towards the final breakout level of 100.

EURJPY (135.17) has been rejected exactly from the 135.50 area, mentioned for the last two days. But the trend remains up till 134.50 breaks and confirms the weakness.

Aussie (0.9494) got closer to and bounced from the 0.9390-0.9430 zone once again when the Fed announcement came. Currently it is trying to make a corrective rally. If it can move above 0.9510/16, we can expect a rally to 0.9550/60.

USDINR (61.235) did not get the chance to participate in even any temporary rally on the news of the QE continuation. So we can expect a morning pop at least even though breaking the range of 61-62 still looks a tough ask.

INTEREST RATES
Japanese yields have dipped ahead of the BOJ announcement. The Japan 10-Yr (0.59%) has fallen from the resistance. The BOJ is expected to revise its growth forecast and also the CPI forecast.

The US-10-Yr (2.53%) is up after the FOMC meeting. The treasury auction of two, five and seven year notes saw the highest demand as there was no change in the Fedís $85 Billion monthly bond buying program to maintain stimulus.

The German 10-Yr (14.69%) saw a sharp decline yesterday. As the Euro strengthened against the Dollar to 1.3736.

The Indian 10-Yr GOI (8.57) % has remained stable. We may see it going up to 8.60%.

 

DATA TODAY
23:15 GMT or 4:45 IST JP PMI
...Actual 54.2 ...Previous 52.50

0:01 GMT or 5:31 IST UK Cons Conf
...Expected -8.00 ...Previous -10

5:07 GMT or 10:37 IST BOJ Meeting
...Previous - <0.10 % -

9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Unemp
...Expected 12.0 % ...Previous 12.0 %



DATA YESTERDAY


EU Biz Climate
...Actual 98 ...Previous 96.9

US ADP Emp
...Actual 130 K ...Previous 166 K


US Core CPI (MoM)
...Actual 0.22 ...Previous 0.20

US FOMC Meeting
...Actual <0.25 % ...Previous < 0.25 %

 

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15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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