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Thursday October 31, 2013 - 15:53:38 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Fed Ratchets Down Economic Outlook, Europe Unemployment Rises to Record Highs US Market Update: Fed Ratchets Down Economic Outlook, Europe Unemployment Rises to Record Highs
Thu, 31 Oct 2013 11:24 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Sept Fiscal Deficit (INR) Crore: 74.4B v 64.0B prior
- (IE) Ireland Oct Live Register Monthly Change: -3.7K v -1.8K prior; Unemployment Rate: 13.2% (lowest level since Mar 2010) v 13.3% prior
- (IL) Israel Sept Unemployment Rate: 6.0% v 6.0% prior
- (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Oct 25th: $517.0B v $511.1B prior
- (IT) Italy Sept PPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -2.2% v -2.0%e
- (US) Nov RBC Consumer Outlook Index: 47.0 v 50.7 prior
- (BR) Brazil Sept Central Govt Budget Balance (BRL): -10.5B v -0.5Be
- (ZA) South Africa Sept Trade Balance (ZAR): -18.9B-16.4Be
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 340K v 338Ke; Continuing Claims: 2.881M v 2.870Me
- (CA) Canada Aug GDP M/M: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.7%e
- (CA) Canada Aug Average Weekly Earnings Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3% prior
- (BR) Brazil Sept Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -22.9B v -19.3Be; Primary Budget Balance: -9.1B v +0.5Be; Net Debt to GDP ratio: 35.0% v 34.5%e
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Oct Inflation Expectations Survey: 0.9% v 1.1%e
- (US) Oct Chicago Purchasing Manager: 65.9 v 55.0e
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: +38 bcf v +35-40 bcf expected
- (MX) Mexico Sept Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): 2.427T v 2.416T prior

- Markets continue to parse the Fed's slight downward revision to its economic outlook in yesterday's FOMC statement, although it continues to give zero indication of when the taper might begin. Meanwhile the weekly jobless claims continue ticking higher. As of writing, the DJIA and S&P500 are down 20% a piece, while the Nasdaq is flat.

- In its post-decision statement published yesterday, the FOMC made no mention of the fiscal battles in Washington, DC or its impact on the larger economy, something many investors were expecting. The consensus view was for a dovish statement, which was certainly the tone of the text, however many analysts are uncomfortable with the lack of a reference to the fiscal chaos or its possible repeat in early 2014, in addition to the removal of reference to "tightening financial conditions" and rising mortgage rates. Note that the Fed did acknowledge the slowing housing recovery, dropping language that the "housing sector has been strengthening."

- Data out of the EU overnight will only boost the pressure on the ECB to ease policy to further support the region's fragile economy at its rate decision next week. The September euro zone unemployment rate pushed out to a fresh record high at 12.2% while Oct euro zone inflation fell to its lowest level in almost four years. EUR/USD fell more than a big figure in the wake of the very soft data, dropping to around 1.3600 from around 1.3710 overnight.

- Exxon's output rose in Q3 for the first time in more than two years, and the firm met to exceeded consensus views. Note that weaker refining margins due to increased industry capacity negatively impacted downstream earnings. Conoco's Q3 profits climbed 38% y/y and earnings were in line, however the totals benefited from continuing asset disposals. Production was flat. Shares of both COP and XOM are up slightly.

- Shares of Avon Products are down more than 21% this morning after the firm widely missed expectations in its Q3 report and saw its North American sales decline 19% in the quarter. In addition, the company disclosed that its settlement of a bribery probe with the SEC could cost "a magnitude significantly greater than our earlier offer." Previous reports suggested the penalty could exceed $100M.

- Shares of Facebook have struggled to stay out of negative territory this morning. The firm's headline numbers and both its monthly and daily user totals looked pretty good, with the latter items still registering double-digit growth. Investors have focused on some negative commentary on the conference call, as management finally admits that it is seeing decline in usage among younger teens and warns it will not boost the percentage of ads in the newsfeed. Shares of travel site Expedia are up 17% on very strong earnings and good revenue growth.

- Both Visa and MasterCard offered pretty solid results in Q3, although Visa's top line fell a little short. MasterCard said that US consumer spending was flat in Q3 due to uncertainty around the fiscal battle in Washington, while Visa said it could not quantify the impact of the government shutdown. Shares of Visa are down 4% while MA is flat on the day.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Sept National Unemployment Rate: No est v 9.3% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 10.0%e v 10.3% prior
- 12:00 (CA) Bank of Canada Chief Murchison speaks at CABE
- 14:30 (DE) IMF Deputy Head Lipton speaks on Germany in Berlin
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Construction Activity M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 10.7% prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Oct Manufacturing PMI: 51.2e v 51.1 prior
- 21:45 (CN) China Oct HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI: 50.7e v 50.2 prior




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