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Sunday November 3, 2013 - 17:11:02 GMT
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ECB meet major focus Thursday. October U.S. Jobs due
|ECB meet major focus Thursday. October U.S. Jobs due|
4 November 2013 00:00 gmt
| CALENDAR: Far East: JA- Holiday. Europe: EZ- Final PMIs North America: US- Factory Orders|
| EURUSD 1.3488
|| U.S. 2.62% +7bp
|| North America:Higher|
| EURJPY 133.19
|| Bund 1.69% -1bp
|| DE: DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.5906
|| GILT 2.66% +3bp
|| GB: FTSE: Unchanged|
| USDJPY 98.75
|| JGB 0.60% 0bp
|| Asia Close Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JA- Holiday, EZ- Final PMIs, US- Factory Orders
- The tone of the USD has decisively improved after the EURUSD traded below its 20-day moving average (1.3645) yesterday. Most were expecting the Fed to take a low profile at ts October 30 meeting with recent U.S. economic data having taken a softer turn and many still digesting the impact from the government shutdown. Based on the data we have been seeing recently, we feel the odds of a Fed tapering in December are small. The next probable opportunity for a Fed tapering would be the March 2014 Fed meeting, because that is the next meeting after December) with a Press Conference scheduled afterwards.
- Changes in the outlook for Fed policy have given the USD a boost in the latest week. Prices in prime fixed income markets are mostly higher3 The big surprise Thursday were much stronger than expected Chicago and Milwaukee regional PMIs.
- Also EURUSD headed lower in the week just ended after soft German September retail sales data. They came on the heels of weaker than expected employment data, and a softer than expected IFO survey. The broader Eurozone saw rising unemployment and falling (0,70% y/y) flash October HICP inflation.
- This week features a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. No rate changes are expected, but we must assume their policy decision will be data-dependent. ECB President recently has expressed concerns about the weakness of the Eurozone economy. Furthermore, the recent strength of the EUR has not been helpful. Additional unconventional easing measures are not out of the realm of possible actions.
- The data schedule for the week sees a number of PMI releases. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England and European Central Bank will announce policy decisions. Another major event will be the release of October U.S. Employment data on Friday. Canadian October Employment data are due for release on that session as well.
- For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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