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Monday November 4, 2013 - 06:26:19 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Rising China non-manufacturing PMI and strong Australia retail sales boost AUD ahead of tomorrow's RBA decision - Source TradeTheNews.com

- China non-manufacturing PMI out on Saturday rising to 14-month high. >- China premier Li cautions on the risk of slowing economy to the labor sector, while Pres Xi is more upbeat, noting domestic conditions are sufficient in sustaining economic growth. - Australia retail sales top estimates, sending AUD up 60pips against USD and JPY. Analysts are torn whether the improvement in the retail data is indication of a sustainable upturn or merely a reflection of low base effects from weak environment in July, but few expect the RBA to back away from its firmly neutral stance at its policy meeting tomorrow despite the recent uptick in the Aussie. - Westpac the next of Australia's top banks to report FY results - profits and revenue up slightly from year-ago level, impairment charges are down, and tier1 ratio is up, while interest margins are down 2bps to 2.14%. Shares are down over 1%, tracking the reversal in the broader ASX index. ***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA OCT NON-MANUFACTURING PMI: 56.3 V 55.4 PRIOR (14-month high) >- (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.8% V 0.4%E (7-month high); Q3 Retail sales ex-inflation: 0.7% v 0.2%e - (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT TD SECURITIES INFLATION M/M: 0.1% V 0.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.1% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS M/M: -0.1% V +0.2% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 HOUSE PRICE INDEX Q/Q: 1.9% V 2.2%E (4th consecutive increase); Y/Y: 7.6% V 7.6%E ***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (KR) South Korea sells 30-yr govt Bonds; avg yield 3.850% - (KR) South Korea sells 3-yr govt Bonds; avg yield 2.870% - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 5.7 tonnes to 866.3 tonnes (lowest since Feb 2009) - (CN) China Statistics Bureau: China pork price falling in late Oct - (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1482 v 6.1452 prior setting (weakest Yuan setting since Sept 27th) - USD majors are little changed from Friday's levels with the exception of the Aussie dollar. AUD opened up over 20pips in the wake of the China non-manuf PMI released over the weekend and extended those gains following a much better than expected Sept retail sales report, rising as high as 0.9490s against USD and 93.70 against the Yen, up some 60pips from Friday. EUR/USD briefly dove below 1.3450, falling by about 50pips before returning to 1.3480s, as investors position for the possibility of a more dovish ECB stance following last week's low inflation figures. ***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China President Xi Jinping: "Domestic elements supporting China's economic growth are sufficient" - (CN) China Premier Li Keqiang: Job growth threatened by slowing economy in China; To find an equilibrium in between reform and economic growth - financial press - (CN) Shanghai new home sales +5.1% w/w at 376K sqm; Avg new home price +2.06% w/w at CNY25.5K/sqm - Uwin - (CN) Beijing Oct second-hand housing sales 107.9K units, -16.03% m/m, -5.7% y/y; Avg price +0.3% m/m, +27.46% y/y at CNY29.7K/sqm - China press - (CN) China Fin Min Lou Jiwei: China economic policy aim for long-term effect instead of short-term - financial press - (CN) China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) Chairman Xiao Gang: Planning to simplify approvals for M&A activity - Chinese press - (CN) A bubble in the China property market poses a threat to the overall economy - Chinese press - (JP) BOJ seen approaching its limit for ETF purchases, weakening its impact on the stock market - Nikkei News - (JP) Japan plans to remove import tariffs of up to 95% of goods - Japanese press - (JP) Japan and Russia hold their first joint defense and foreign ministers' meeting this weekend to discuss regional security and China-related concerns - financial press - (AU) Australia Treasurer Hockey: Confidence is returning to Australian economy - (NZ) New Zealand Treasury: sees stronger growth outlook in following quarter; RBNZ may have more flexibility on rate rises - (NZ) According to the latest Nielsen survey, New Zealand consumer confidence is at a 2-year high - NZ press - (KR) South Korea Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs: Q3 building permits fell 16% y/y to 57.1K units - Korean press - (KR) South Korea may start to raise power prices by at least 3% in Jan - financial press - (UK) Confederation of British Industry (CBI) raises its projections for UK 2013 GDP to 1.4% from 1.2% and 2014 GDP to 2.4% from 2.3% forecasts made in Aug - financial press - (US) Fed's Fisher (hawk, non-voter): govt has played a suppressive role in the recovery; Worried about the political consequences if the Fed suffers losses on its bond holdings ***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 closed, S&P/ASX -0.3%, Kospi -0.6%, Shanghai Composite flat, Hang Seng -0.1%, Dec S&P500 +0.2% at 1,759, Dec gold flat at $1,313, Dec crude oil -0.2% at $94.47/brl US markets: - BRK.B: Reports Q3 Net EPS attributable to shareholders (Class A shares) $3,074 v $2,373 y/y; R$46.5B v $41.1B y/y - WY (reports of possible $2.7B deal with TRI Pointe) Notable movers by sector (**NOTE: Japan's Nikkei225 closed for holiday): - Consumer discretionary: Hunan Friendship & Apollo Commercial Co Ltd 002277.CN +3.8% (plans for private bank); Harvey Norman HVN.AU +1.2% (Q3 results); Billabong BBG.AU +1.8% (funding update) - Financials: Westpac Banking Corp WBC.AU -1.1% (FY13 results) - Consumer staples: Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Ltd 000596.CN -1.7% (clarifies press speculation) - Materials: Whitehaven Coal WHC.AU -3.6% (CEO provides FY14 guidance) - Technology: AAC Tech 2018.HK -3.3% (9-month results) - Energy: Shunfeng Photovoltaic International Ltd 1165.HK +16.5% (acquires Suntech); Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd 568.HK +2.8%, Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co Ltd 002353.CN +2.0%, Zhangjiagang Furui Special Equipment Co Ltd 300228.CN +2.8%, Kingdream PLC 000852.CN +4.1% (momentum from previous shale gas report) - Telecom: ZTE Corp 763.HK +3.1% (contributes to 4G in Belgium) - Industrials: Virgin Australia VAH.AU flat (Sept metrics), Leighton Holdings LEI.AU +0.6% (JV deal) - Source TradeTheNews.com

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
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