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Eurozone Final PMI mfg data mixed. Active week in store
|Eurozone Final PMI mfg data mixed. Active week in store|
5 November 2013 00:00 gmt
| CALENDAR: Far East: AU- RBA Decision Europe: GB- Service PMI, EZ- PPi. North America: US- Service PMI, API|
| EURUSD 1.3510
|| U.S. 2.59% -2bp
|| North America:Mixed|
| EURJPY 133.26
|| Bund 1.69% 0bp
|| DE: DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.5962
|| GILT 2.64% -2bp
|| GB: FTSE: higher|
| USDJPY 98.63
|| JGB 0.60% 0bp
|| Asia Close Lower|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: AU- RBA Decision, GB- Service PMI, EZ- PPI, US- Service PMI
- The tone of the USD has decisively improved now that the EURUSD is traded below its 20-day moving average (1.3645). Its psychological tipping point is 1.3500 Based on the data we have been seeing recently, we feel the odds of a Fed tapering in December are small. The next probable opportunity for a Fed tapering would be the March 2014 Fed meeting.
- Revisions to Eurozone October flash PMI reports have been modest today. The data suggest the performance of the EZ economy remains sluggish.See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- Thiursday features a European Central Bank meeting. It is logical to assume that the EURUSD will be under pressure ahead of the meeting. We see no reason to cut the refi rate as its impact would only be mildly psychological. Somehow I think the preference at the ECB might be for "extraordinary actions" of some type. The ECB faces a real dilemma with the Southern tier of Europe virtually in a depression. Germany has started to slow as well..
- The data schedule for the week sees a number of PMI releases. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England and European Central Bank will announce policy decisions. Another major event will be the release of October U.S. Employment data on Friday. Canadian October Employment data are due for release on that session as well.
- For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Tue 17 July 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
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AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
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John M. Bland, MBA
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