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Tuesday November 5, 2013 - 04:01:30 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 05-Nov-2013 -0359 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

EQUITIES
Equities are overall up.

Dow (15639.12, +0.15%) rose a bit yesterday but may lose steam below Resistances at 15700-800 and 16000 from where it may again fall back towards 15400. A very bullish upside break may be difficult. Nasdaq (3936.59, +0.37%) is maintaining its gains, though, and may target 4000 in the near term.

Dax (9037.23, +0.33%) rose as investors await the Central Bank’s monetary decision this week. While in an uptrend, it faces resistance at current levels.

Asia-Pac is down. Nikkei (14192.10, -0.07%) has fallen and may test support at 14000 which may help it to rise back to 14800. It is moving in an overall uptrend. Shanghai (2133.49, -0.75%) is looking weak may test support at 2100.

Nifty (6317.35) is in an overall uptrend and is targeting mid term resistance near 6400. If this holds we may see a fall towards 6100 and further to 5900.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1316.20, +0.11%) has seen a little correction after the recent fall. It is now testing the 21-day and 100-day MA resistance just above the current levels. With further Resistance near 1350 on the daily, Gold could be vulnerable to a dip towards 1270. Silver (21.71, -0.07%) has fallen and could test support near 21 in the near term.

Copper (3.2630) has bounced from trend support near 3.25. That said, it is in an overall sideways movement and may continue to range between 3.25-3.35.

Brent (106.32) has corrected a bit and may consolidate sideways this week while trying to rise up steadily towards 108. Support should be seen near 104. Nymex WTI (94.670) continues its recent downtrend that may now target 92-91.

CURRENCIES
Euro (1.3507) achieved all our targets and bounced exactly from the support zone of 1.3450/70. It made a low at 1.3442 and bounced to 1.3524. We had recommended partial covering of shorts in the zone of 1.3450/70. As long as 1.3440 is held, any dip now could be bought and it can reach 1.3560/80. Support is at 1.3470.

Dollar Index (80.56) was rejected from exactly the resistance area of 80.75-80.95 mentioned repeatedly last week. We repeat, no major reversal signal would be confirmed as long as it stays below 81. Till 80.93 holds, we can expect all rallies to be sold into and a fall to 80.20/30.


Pound (1.5975) moved exactly in line with our expectations and dropped to 1.5903 before bouncing from there. As long as this low is not broken, we can expect buying at the lower levels and a move towards 1.6060/70 remains a possibility. Support is at 1.5940 and resistance is in 1.60-1.6010.

Dollar Yen (98.26) has been rejected from 98.85, very close to the strong resistance area around 99 which we have mentioning for the last few days. The price contraction is still going on. It has a support at 98, but the bigger moves would only be possible on a breakout from the range of 96.90-99.

EURJPY (132.74) is in a confirmed downtrend now. It bounced from 1.3260, close to our support zone of 1.3240 and bounced to 133.40, near our resistance of 133.65. As expected, the bounce was sold into. Another bounce can come if the low of 1.3240 is not broken. On the other hand, a break of 1.3240/60 could take it to 131.10.


Aussie (0.9502) broke the temporary Double Bottom at 0.9440 and made a low at 0.9422, but the corrective rally came as expected. It has achieved the minimum target of 0.9520 and further rally will come only if it can sustain above 0.9526.

USDINR (61.74) remains in the range of 61-62. Even an appreciating Dollar has not been able to take it beyond this range as the rise in equities pulls it down. Even a breakout from this range will not guarantee any major move as the volatility cycle has topped out and it has entered a low volatility phase. We will keep an eye on 62.30 on the upside and 60.60 on the downside if the range expansion takes place.

INTEREST RATES

The US 10Yr (2.60%) has moved up over the last few days even as there is talk that a Taper might be delayed longer than previously anticipated. We see chances of a rise to 2.75% in the near term, followed by a downmove towards 2.50% again. A rise past 2.75% (not anticipated) would be a game changer.

The German-US 2Yr Spread (-0.20%) has come down to a critical Support near current levels. A bounce would give relief to the Euro (1.3508), while a failure to bounce could push the Spread down towards -0.28%, pulling the Euro down with it. Last week has seen the German-US 10Yr Spread (-0.90%) has fallen sharply through last week, having found good support-turned-Resistance near -0.65% on a long-term chart. Please see the last chart on the following page:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/eurusddiff.shtml#eurusd

Dollar-Yen (98.29) has risen alongwith the rise in the US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.0%) from 1.90% earlier. Some Resistance is seen near current levels on the Spread, which could keep Dollar-Yen subdued a bit.

The Mibor (3mth 9.10%) can stabilise below 9.50% in the near term now. The Mifor (3 mth 8.71%) may also stabilise near current levels. In China, Money market rates have come down over the last three days on hopes of increase in liquidity.

DATA TODAY
3:30 GMT or 9:00 IST RBA Meeting
...Expected 2.50 % ...Previous 2.50 %


DATA YESTERDAY
No major data release yesterday.

 

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