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Tuesday November 5, 2013 - 10:49:32 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: UK Services PMI hits 15-year high; EU Commission sees confidence returning to the region but risks remain EU Market Update: UK Services PMI hits 15-year high; EU Commission sees confidence returning to the region but risks remain
Tue, 05 Nov 2013 5:23 AM EST

- RBA leaves cash target rate unchanged at 2.50% (as expected) but sets a dovish tone noting AUD currency as 'uncomfortably high' with declines needed to balance growth
-China Oct HSBC PMI Services rises to 52.6 from 52.4 prior (21st straight month of growth)
- Hong Kong PMI Services hits its highest reading in 7 months (50.1 vs. 50.0 prior)
- India PMI Services improves to 47.1 but registers its 4th straight contraction
- China Premier Li Keqiang: Need 7.2% growth in order to create enough jobs but more stimulus would mean problems
- PBoC Q3 Monetary Report: Reiterates to continue prudent monetary policy; foundation for stable prices is not solid as upwards pressure on prices still exists.
- Spain Net Unemployment rises for the 2nd straight month
- Swiss Oct CPI comes in negative (-0.1% vs. +0.1%e)
- UK Oct PMI Services hits highest level since May 1997 (62.5 v 60.0e)
- EU Commission updates its growth outlook: Increasing signs that the economy had reached a turning point; downside risks continued to prevail

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Oct HSBC/Markit Services PMI: 47.1 v 44.6 prior; 4th straight contraction

- (IE) Ireland Investec Services PMI: 60.1 v 56.8 prior; 15th straight month of expansion to a 6 1/2 year high
- (FI) Finland Aug GDP Indicator WD: -0.5% v -0.4% prior
- (SE) Sweden Oct PMI Services: 53.7 v 53.3 prior
- (CZ) Czech Sept) Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.7% v 4.0%e
- (ES) Spain Oct Net Unemployment M/M: +87.0K v +82.5Ke; second straight monthly increase
- (EU) ECB 120M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 24M prior; 55.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 52.1B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss Oct CPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.1%e
- (CH) Swiss Oct CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v +0.1%e : Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.2%e
- (SE) Sweden Sept Service Production M/M: -0.4% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.5%e
- (UK) Oct PMI Services: 62.5 v 60.0e; highest since May 1997
- (EU) Euro Zone Sept PPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -0.8%e

Fixed Income:
- (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sold total 1.65B vs. 1.65B indicated in 2018 and 2022 bonds

- (EU) ECB allotted 89.5B in 7-day Main Refi Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 90Be

Indices [Stoxx 50 -0.40%
, FTSE 100 -0.70% at 6,718, DAX -0.50% at 8,991, CAC-40 -0.60% at 4,264, IBEX-35 -0.90% at 9,790, FTSE MIB -0.50% at 19,209, SMI -0.40% at 8,150, S&P 500 Futures -0.30% at 1,758]

Market Focal Points: Equity markets in Europe decline amid rise in core government bond yields and earnings releases, Big European earnings (BMW, Fresenius, HannoverRe, Sky Deutschland, Holcim, DSM, Imperial Tobacco, Marks & Spencer), BMW declines after Q3 earnings report, Banks trade broadly lower led by RBS and Credit Suisse, Utilities outperform, UK Services PMI strongest since 1997

- By Sector
- Telecom
[Sky Deutschland SKYD.DE +1.5% (Q3 results above ests)
- Industrials [BMW -3.5% (Q3 sales below ests), Siemens SIE.DE -1% (broker commentary); Symrise SY1.DE +5% (9-month sales and profits rose y/y), Aer Lingus AERL.UK +4% (reaffirmed outlook), DSM DSM.NL +2.5% (Q3 profits above ests)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Heidelberger Druck HDD.DE +9% (partnership agreement with FujiFilm), Beiersdorf BEI.DE +4.5% (raised outlook), Marks & Spencer MKS.UK +2.5% (H1 sales above ests); Associated British Foods ABF.UK -3% (broker commentary)]
- Technology [Blinkx BLNX.UK +9.5% (H1 Rev +36%)]
- Healthcare [Evotec EVT.DE +5% (collaboration agreement), Shire SHP.UK +1.5% (data presentation)]
- Utilities [Gas Natural GAS.ES +1.5% (Q3 profits above ests), German utilities rise amid speculation that Germany may support EU carbon proposal (RWE and EOAN +1%]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Technology -1%, Consumer Cyclical -0.90%, Financials -0.6%, Telecom -0.60%, Basic Materials -0.20%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.2%, Industrial -0.10%, Energy flat; Utilities +1%]

- EU Commission issued its autumn economic forecasts
which maintained 2013 Euro Area growth at -0.4% and trimmed 2014 growth to 1.1% from 1.2%. It saw increasing signs that the economy had reached a turning point; downside risks continued to prevail. Risk to inflation outlook broadly balanced and maintained 2014 CPI forecast at 1.5%
- EU's Rehn: Rate of inflation was clearly below ECB target this year and added that risk of deflation was remote at this time. Large adjustments were still needed for both Spain and Italy
- France Fin Min Moscovic says French 2014 GDP growth forecast of +0.9% as credible
- Spain Econ Min de Guindos reiterates the view that saw EU agreement on SRM by end of year
- BOJ Gov Kuroda reiterated view that country was on path at achieve 2% inflation and he would not hesitate to take steps to achieve goal. Too early to debate exit strategy for BOJ but easy policy was having effects steadily as expected. He urged speedy implementation of growth strategy. The BOJ focus was on whether domestic demand was sustainable and if overseas economies would recover. Lastly he stressed it was vital for FX to move in stable manner
- China PBoC Q3 Monetary Policy Implementation Report reiterated its stance to continue prudent monetary policy. Foundation for stable prices was not solid and CPI y/y growth likely to increase in Q4, as upwards pressure on prices still existed. Reiterated to use various policy tools to guide reasonable growth in credit and social financing. Economy might see long term deleveraging prices. Property and local govt debt were outstanding problems.

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Verbal intervention continued among European officials and corporate ahead of Thursday ECB's rate decision. Dealers noted that the recent 2-year highs of 1.3830 had entered political discussions and now looked for the central bank to lay the foundations for action in December and provide a statement leaving as many dovish policy options as possible open.
- The EUR/USD stayed below the 1.35 handle as dealers took note of comments from Italian Fin Min Saccomanni on Monday that strong Euro currency posed risk to the region's recovery. Dealers noted 'good size' buying of 1.3350 Euro 1-week puts going through in session ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting
- The GBP/USD surged above 1.6060 after the Oct PMI Services beat expectations and registered its highest reading since May 1997. EUR/GBP dipped to 5-week lows at 0.8465
- Dovish down under. The RBA left rates unchanged, but otherwise delivered a very dovish statement. AUD/USD remained below the 0.95 level

Political/In the Papers:
- (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni: strong Euro currency poses risk to recovery; Not seeing any risk of deflation in the euro zone
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) Chief Cannata: Market conditions are positive for BTPs, driving plenty of interest in the instrument, politics is what is driving the narrower BTP/Bund spread
- (UK) NIESR raises UK 2013 GDP forecast to 1.4% from 1.2% prior; said there is a 20% chance unemployment will reach 7% as soon as in the first quarter of next year vs the BoE's expectation of 2016
- (US) Fed's Rosengren (dove, FOMC voter): Monetary policy should be data dependent; US economy still challenged, unemployment remains high, and inflation still low
- (US) Fed's Bullard: Could still decide to taper in December; Sees potential for the ECB to require measures to fight their weak inflation
- (US) Fed's Powell (FOMC voter, dovish): Timing of taper is uncertain and depends on evolution of economy
- (US) Fed's Williams (dove, FOMC non-voter): Cannot keeping buying $85B in USTs and MBS forever; Economic data has weakened since the Fed came close to tapering QE buys in September.
-(US) Fed Q3 senior loan office survey: Survey results also indicated that banks, on average, did not substantially change standards or terms on lending to households.
- (US) Treasury Quarterly financing estimates: To borrow $266B in October to December quarter vs $285B estimate; Treasury borrowed $197B in July to September quarter vs $209B projection (vs $200B estimate).
- (US) US Treasury official Lael Brainard to step down Fri Nov 8th - financial press; The White House considers nominating Brainard for Fed Board

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) to sell 1.0B indicated in 26-week bills
- (RO) Romania Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Interest Rate by 25bps to 4.00%
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists
- (UK) South Korean President Park makes State Visit to UK
- (GR) Troika group going to Athens, Greece for a review of bailout program
- 05:30 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Jochnick
- 05:30 (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-month Bills
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 1.25B in 0.25% I/L 2052 Gilts
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Months Bills
- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell combined 1.4B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills

- 06:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel's CDU/CSU holds Coalition Talks With SPD
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Sept Economic Activity M/M: -0.6%e v +0.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.0%e v 4.1% prior
- 06:30 - (CL) Chile Central Bank Minutes
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell 2.0B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: % v 0.040% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 3.4x prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit tender; Expected to drain 184.0B
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Oct PMI Services: No est v 50.7 prior
- 07:30 (PT) Portugal Econ Min Pires de Lima
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:30 (SG) Singapore Oct Purchasing Managers Index: 51.0e v 50.5 prior; Electronics Sector Index: 50.9ev 50.3 prior
- 08:30 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy speaks to Parliament about EU Summit Outcome
- 08:30 (EU) ECB President Draghi speaks in Frankfurt
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves:
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Leading Indicators M/M: No est v 0 prior
- 09:00 (EU) ECB's Asmussen (Germany) speaks in Stockholm
- 09:00 (SE) Sweden Fin Min Borg with Danske Bank CEO at Stockholm Conference
- 10:00 (ES) Spain PM Rajoy
- 10:00 (US) Oct ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 54.0e v 54.4 prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 41.8e v 38.4 prior
- 10:30 (CA) Canada to sell 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 10:30 (UK) DMO announcement of size for 4.25% 2036 Gilt for Nov 14th
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $40B in 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (EU) EU's Barroso in Frankfurt
- 13:00 (ES) Spain Dep PM Saenz speaks at Prize Ceremony in Madrid
- 13:15 (US) Fed's Lacker speaks on Labor Market in North Carolina
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (US) Fed's Williams to speak to Reporters in San Francisco
- 18:50 (JP) Bank of Japan October 3-4 meeting minutes




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