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Tuesday November 5, 2013 - 16:34:19 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Poor European Commission Growth Forecasts Send US and European Equities Lower

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Poor European Commission Growth Forecasts Send US and European Equities Lower
Tue, 05 Nov 2013 11:05 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (CL) Chile Sept Economic Activity M/M: -0.8% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 4.0%e
- (BR) Brazil Oct PMI Services: 52.1 v 50.7 prior
- (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e Nov 2nd: w/w -0.6%; Y/Y: +1.9%
- (SG) Singapore Oct Purchasing Managers Index: 51.2 v 51.0e; Electronics Sector Index: 51.0 v 50.9e
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Nov 2nd: +3.8% y/y, Oct MTD: -1.2% m/m; Oct MTD: +3.4% y/y - 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves:
- (MX) Mexico Sept Leading Indicators M/M: 0.01 v 0.0 prior
- (US) Oct ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 55.4 v 54.0e
- (US) Nov IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 41.4 v 41.8e

- The European Commission trimmed economic forecasts for the EU in a report out overnight and bond yields across the region suffered. Even in the US, yields on the 10-year UST have crept up to 2.657%. European equities have tumbled from the open, setting a negative tone for US stocks. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.23%, the S&P500 is down 0.37% and the Nasdaq is flat.

- The ISM services index for October modestly topped expectations, with good expansion seen despite the government shutdown during the month. The overall index ticked higher from September, but remained below the eight-month high of 58.6 seen in August. Note that the employment sub-index was strong, which provides some color ahead of Friday's October jobs report. Nobody expects a taper over the next two Fed meetings, but the strong ISM services data may be another case of good news being bad news for equities in the short term.

- EUR/USD remained within striking distance of six-week lows ahead of Thursday's ECB rate decision. European officials continued with verbal intervention regarding where they would like to see the euro FX rate. Italy Finance Minister Saccomanni said an ECB interest rate cut was possible by the end of the year and said the strong euro posed risks to recovery.

- CVS is up 2% or so this morning after the firm comfortably topped expectations and tweaked its FY outlook a bit higher. CVS's profits were up 25% y/y and shares of CVS are now at all-time highs. Hospital operator HCA reported higher admissions but flat y/y profits in its Q3, and shares of HCA are down 2.2%.

- Both Marathon Oil and Anadarko Petroleum saw solid y/y profit gains in their Q3 reports, with Anadarko's profit up 50% (less than expected) and Marathon's up 26% (more than expected). Both firms saw higher production levels in the quarter. Shares of APC are down 2% this morning, while MRO has given up gains and are up less than 1%.

- Fertilizer giant Mosaic gained a bit in the premarket but shares have plunged 2.7% into the red during cash trading. Mosaic's Q3 profits fell 70% y/y as farmers have held back on buying more fertilizer due to the Uralkali mess and the prospect of much lower costs. Moreover, the delayed US harvest has pushed back the schedule for applying winter fertilizer.

- DirecTV's Q3 earnings jumped 24% and subscribers in both the US and Latin America grew very well on a y/y basis. Both profits and revenue were up respectably and earnings widely topped expectations. Nevertheless, shares of DTV have spent most of the morning in the red and are only now just about back to the flatline.

- Among the big losers is General Cable, with shares of BGC down 19% after missing top- and bottom-line expectations in Q3 and offering terrible Q4 guidance. Orbitz is off 23% after net income slipped on a y/y basis and FY revenue guidance missed expectations. Meanwhile Pharmerica is up 26% after the firm beat expectations in Q3 and hiked its FY guidance.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $40B in 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (EU) EU's Barroso in Frankfurt
- 13:00 (ES) Spain Dep PM Saenz speaks at Prize Ceremony in Madrid
- 13:15 (US) Fed's Lacker speaks on Labor Market in North Carolina
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (US) Fed's Williams to speak to Reporters in San Francisco
- 18:50 (JP) Bank of Japan October 3-4 meeting minutes

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
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