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Tuesday November 5, 2013 - 19:52:43 GMT
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U.S. ISM Service PMI rebounds. U.K. Service PMI soars higher
|U.S. ISM Service PMI rebounds. U.K. Service PMI soars higher|
6 November 2013 00:00 gmt
| CALENDAR: JA- BOJ Minutes, AU- Trade EZ- Service PMIs, Retail Sales, DE- Factory Orders GB- Mfg/Ind Output. US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude, CA- Ivey PMI|
| EURUSD 1.3475
|| U.S. 2.66% +6bp
|| North America: Mixed|
| EURJPY 132.80
|| Bund 1.74% +5bp
|| DE: DAX: Weaker|
| GBPUSD 1.6042
|| GILT 2.71% +7bp
|| GB: FTSE: Weaker|
| USDJPY 98.57
|| JGB 0.61% +1bp
|| Asia Close Higher|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: AU- Trade, EZ- Final Service PMIs, Retail Sales, DE- Factory Orders, GB- Mfg/Ind Output, US- Weekly Mortgages, CA- Ivey PMI
- The EURUSD is trading below its 20-day moving average of 1.3675. the psychological tipping point is 1.3500 After recent data, odds of a Fed taper in December are small. The next probable tightening date is March 2014.
- The U.S. ISM Services PMI was stronger than forecast but still well below peak levels recorded earlier in the year. The key employment sub-component improved. It is watched as a key indicator of Non-farm payrolls. October U.S. employment data are due Friday.
- U.K. October Service PMI was much stronger than expected and has give the GBPUSD a solid lift.. The data suggest the U.K. could be back in a recovery phase.See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady as expected earlier today . The AUD weakened after the central bank said expressed its concerns about the high value of the currency. "...The Australian dollar, while below its level earlier in the year, is still uncomfortably high. A lower level of the exchange rate is likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy..."
- Thursday features a European Central Bank meeting. It is logical to assume that the EURUSD will be under pressure ahead of the meeting. We see no reason to cut the refi rate as its impact would only be mildly psychological. The preference of the ECB might be for "extraordinary actions" of some type. The ECB faces a real dilemma with the Southern tier of Europe virtually in a depression. Germany has started to slow as well..
- The data schedule for the week sees a number of PMI releases. Furthermore, the Bank of England and European Central Bank will announce policy decisions. Another major event will be the release of October U.S. Employment data on Friday. Canadian October Employment data are due for release on that session as well.
- For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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