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Wednesday November 6, 2013 - 04:50:59 GMT
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Kshitij.com-Morning Briefing 6 Nov 2013

GOOD MORNING!

EQUITIES
Dow (15618.22, -20.90) has dipped a bit. With the resistances coming up at 15700-800 and 1600 we might see it dip towards 15400 in the medium term. Nasdaq (3939.86, +3.27) is moving sideways and is targeting 4000 in the near term. Dax (9009.11, -28.12) has dipped from the resistance near 9050. But it is still in an overall uptrend that can target 9200.

Asia-Pac is consolidative. Nikkei (14223.82, -1.55) is trading higher after the drop yesterday. It may trend sideways for some time before testing the support at 14000. We can see Shanghai (2153.86, -3.38) consolidating sideways for now. A break below 2125 and we may see it testing the support at 2100. Nifty (6253.15, -64.20) was down yesterday and may test Support near 6200-6225 today.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1311.30, +3.20) is steady near the 100-Day and the 21-Day MA, but we may see it eventually fall to 1270. Silver (21.65, +0.01) has started to consolidate sideways and may test the near term support at 21 before rising to 23.

Copper (3.2510, -0.0075) continues to trade just above the support at 3.25 within an overall sideways range of 3.25-3.35.

Nymex WTI (93.85, +0.48) is trading above the near term support at 93. It can target 92-91 in the current downtrend. Brent (105.86, +0.53) is trading just above the near term support at 105 on the weekly candles. Consolidating for now but can test the support near 103-102 before a bounce to 107-108.

CURRENCIES
Euro (1.3497) is finding important Support at 1.3450-40. The bounce in the German-US 2Yr Spread (-0.16%) could help it retain the Support. Important Resistance seen in the 1.3500-20 region. Needs to be watched. Dollar Index (80.70) remains strong but faces good Resistance at 81.20-81.35 which needs to be broken to allow for further rise towards 82.50/60. Support seen at 80.40/50.

Dollar-Yen (98.47) found support at 98.17 on the daily trendline that is supporting the last rally from 96.94. Look for a strong move on a break out from current range of 96.90-99.00 and finally 100. The bias may be to the upside. EURJPY (132.90) is finding Support at 132.40 as mentioned for the last few days and can see a corrective rally towards 133.35/45.

Pound (1.6091) met our target zone of 1.6060/70. Further strength towards 1.62 seems likely while above 1.6050. After having come off from 0.9750 over the last two weeks, the Aussie (0.9501) could be mixed between a wide 0.9400-9600 range for the next few days.

USDINR (61.92) has opened weaker as the Brazilian Real (2.2925) has weakened quite a bit. Support at 61.50 is holding well. A rise past 62.00, if seen, could target 62.50.

INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.66%) has moved up further from 2.60%. We are targeting 2.75%. We expect the current rally to be followed by a downmove towards 2.50% again. A rise past 2.75% (not anticipated) would be a game changer.

The German-US 10Yr Spread (2.92%) has moved down some more while the 2Yr Spread (-0.16%) has bounced a bit from -0.20%. This bounce in the 2Yr Spread could help keep the Euro above the crucial trend Support at 1.3440. The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.06%) has risen alongwith the rise in the US-10Yr. This could keep Dollar-Yen (98.48) supported in the near term.

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.74%) has moved up to a crucial level. A further rise from here would suggest even higher rates going ahead. SBI and HDFC Bank have increased lending rates. The Indo-US 10Yr Spread (6.08%) has room to increase further towards 6.30%. Overall, India is unlikely to see lower rates anytime soon.

  Follow:

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GOOD MORNING!

EQUITIES
Dow (15618.22, -20.90) has dipped a bit. With the resistances coming up at 15700-800 and 1600 we might see it dip towards 15400 in the medium term. Nasdaq (3939.86, +3.27) is moving sideways and is targeting 4000 in the near term. Dax (9009.11, -28.12) has dipped from the resistance near 9050. But it is still in an overall uptrend that can target 9200.

Asia-Pac is consolidative. Nikkei (14223.82, -1.55) is trading higher after the drop yesterday. It may trend sideways for some time before testing the support at 14000. We can see Shanghai (2153.86, -3.38) consolidating sideways for now. A break below 2125 and we may see it testing the support at 2100. Nifty (6253.15, -64.20) was down yesterday and may test Support near 6200-6225 today.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1311.30, +3.20) is steady near the 100-Day and the 21-Day MA, but we may see it eventually fall to 1270. Silver (21.65, +0.01) has started to consolidate sideways and may test the near term support at 21 before rising to 23.

Copper (3.2510, -0.0075) continues to trade just above the support at 3.25 within an overall sideways range of 3.25-3.35.

Nymex WTI (93.85, +0.48) is trading above the near term support at 93. It can target 92-91 in the current downtrend. Brent (105.86, +0.53) is trading just above the near term support at 105 on the weekly candles. Consolidating for now but can test the support near 103-102 before a bounce to 107-108.

CURRENCIES
Euro (1.3497) is finding important Support at 1.3450-40. The bounce in the German-US 2Yr Spread (-0.16%) could help it retain the Support. Important Resistance seen in the 1.3500-20 region. Needs to be watched. Dollar Index (80.70) remains strong but faces good Resistance at 81.20-81.35 which needs to be broken to allow for further rise towards 82.50/60. Support seen at 80.40/50.

Dollar-Yen (98.47) found support at 98.17 on the daily trendline that is supporting the last rally from 96.94. Look for a strong move on a break out from current range of 96.90-99.00 and finally 100. The bias may be to the upside. EURJPY (132.90) is finding Support at 132.40 as mentioned for the last few days and can see a corrective rally towards 133.35/45.

Pound (1.6091) met our target zone of 1.6060/70. Further strength towards 1.62 seems likely while above 1.6050. After having come off from 0.9750 over the last two weeks, the Aussie (0.9501) could be mixed between a wide 0.9400-9600 range for the next few days.

USDINR (61.92) has opened weaker as the Brazilian Real (2.2925) has weakened quite a bit. Support at 61.50 is holding well. A rise past 62.00, if seen, could target 62.50.

INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.66%) has moved up further from 2.60%. We are targeting 2.75%. We expect the current rally to be followed by a downmove towards 2.50% again. A rise past 2.75% (not anticipated) would be a game changer.

The German-US 10Yr Spread (2.92%) has moved down some more while the 2Yr Spread (-0.16%) has bounced a bit from -0.20%. This bounce in the 2Yr Spread could help keep the Euro above the crucial trend Support at 1.3440. The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.06%) has risen alongwith the rise in the US-10Yr. This could keep Dollar-Yen (98.48) supported in the near term.

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.74%) has moved up to a crucial level. A further rise from here would suggest even higher rates going ahead. SBI and HDFC Bank have increased lending rates. The Indo-US 10Yr Spread (6.08%) has room to increase further towards 6.30%. Overall, India is unlikely to see lower rates anytime soon.

  Follow:

Our Track Record
Track Dollar Rupee

Click here to enlarge

New
Dollar-Rupee Long term Forecast
Our Oct'13 Longterm forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please mail us.

In order to read our previous forecasts please Click Here.
Economic Calendar

Track the ongoing actual releases in our online Economic Calendar.

GOOD MORNING!

EQUITIES
Dow (15618.22, -20.90) has dipped a bit. With the resistances coming up at 15700-800 and 1600 we might see it dip towards 15400 in the medium term. Nasdaq (3939.86, +3.27) is moving sideways and is targeting 4000 in the near term. Dax (9009.11, -28.12) has dipped from the resistance near 9050. But it is still in an overall uptrend that can target 9200.

Asia-Pac is consolidative. Nikkei (14223.82, -1.55) is trading higher after the drop yesterday. It may trend sideways for some time before testing the support at 14000. We can see Shanghai (2153.86, -3.38) consolidating sideways for now. A break below 2125 and we may see it testing the support at 2100. Nifty (6253.15, -64.20) was down yesterday and may test Support near 6200-6225 today.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1311.30, +3.20) is steady near the 100-Day and the 21-Day MA, but we may see it eventually fall to 1270. Silver (21.65, +0.01) has started to consolidate sideways and may test the near term support at 21 before rising to 23.

Copper (3.2510, -0.0075) continues to trade just above the support at 3.25 within an overall sideways range of 3.25-3.35.

Nymex WTI (93.85, +0.48) is trading above the near term support at 93. It can target 92-91 in the current downtrend. Brent (105.86, +0.53) is trading just above the near term support at 105 on the weekly candles. Consolidating for now but can test the support near 103-102 before a bounce to 107-108.

CURRENCIES
Euro (1.3497) is finding important Support at 1.3450-40. The bounce in the German-US 2Yr Spread (-0.16%) could help it retain the Support. Important Resistance seen in the 1.3500-20 region. Needs to be watched. Dollar Index (80.70) remains strong but faces good Resistance at 81.20-81.35 which needs to be broken to allow for further rise towards 82.50/60. Support seen at 80.40/50.

Dollar-Yen (98.47) found support at 98.17 on the daily trendline that is supporting the last rally from 96.94. Look for a strong move on a break out from current range of 96.90-99.00 and finally 100. The bias may be to the upside. EURJPY (132.90) is finding Support at 132.40 as mentioned for the last few days and can see a corrective rally towards 133.35/45.

Pound (1.6091) met our target zone of 1.6060/70. Further strength towards 1.62 seems likely while above 1.6050. After having come off from 0.9750 over the last two weeks, the Aussie (0.9501) could be mixed between a wide 0.9400-9600 range for the next few days.

USDINR (61.92) has opened weaker as the Brazilian Real (2.2925) has weakened quite a bit. Support at 61.50 is holding well. A rise past 62.00, if seen, could target 62.50.

INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.66%) has moved up further from 2.60%. We are targeting 2.75%. We expect the current rally to be followed by a downmove towards 2.50% again. A rise past 2.75% (not anticipated) would be a game changer.

The German-US 10Yr Spread (2.92%) has moved down some more while the 2Yr Spread (-0.16%) has bounced a bit from -0.20%. This bounce in the 2Yr Spread could help keep the Euro above the crucial trend Support at 1.3440. The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.06%) has risen alongwith the rise in the US-10Yr. This could keep Dollar-Yen (98.48) supported in the near term.

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.74%) has moved up to a crucial level. A further rise from here would suggest even higher rates going ahead. SBI and HDFC Bank have increased lending rates. The Indo-US 10Yr Spread (6.08%) has room to increase further towards 6.30%. Overall, India is unlikely to see lower rates anytime soon.

 

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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