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Wednesday November 6, 2013 - 11:00:44 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: European data provides mild support for risk appetite EU Market Update: European data provides mild support for risk appetite
Wed, 06 Nov 2013 5:20 AM EST

- Australia Sept Trade Balance came in better than expectations but registered its 3rd straight monthly deficit
- BoJ Minutes: economy recovering moderately
- China CPI may continue to rise next year but stay below the 3.5% official target
- Major PMI Services (France, Germany and Euro Zone) see slight upward revisions in final readings but below previous month data
- UK Sept Industrial Production beats expectations with highest annual pace since Jan 2011
(Y/Y: 2.2% v 1.8%e)

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Oct Services PMI: 52.5 v 51.2e; 3rd straight month of expansion
- (UK) Oct Halifax House Prices M/M: 0.7% v 0.9%e; 3M/3M: 6.9% v 7.0%e
- (CZ) Czech Sept Industrial Output Y/Y: 7.1% v 6.3%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -9.5% v -8.1% prior
- (CZ) Czech Sept Trade Balance (CZK): 35.1B v 33.5Be
- (HU) Hungary Sept Advance Retail Sales Y/Y: 0.3% v 2.2%e
- (EU) ECB 315M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 120M prior; 57.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 55.5B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (ES) Spain Oct Services PMI: 49.6 v 49.0e; Second straight contraction and 26th in the last 27 months
- (IT) Italy Oct PMI Services: 50.5 v 51.2e; Second straight month of growth
- (FR) France Oct Final PMI Services: 50.9 v 50.2e; confirms second straight month of growth
- (DE) Germany Oct Final PMI Services: 52.9 v 52.3e; confirmed 6th straight month of growth
- (EU) Euro Zone Oct Final PMI Services: 51.6 v 50.9e (confirmed 3rd straight month of growth); PMI Composite: 51.5e

- (IS) Iceland Oct Preliminary Trade Balance: 7.1B v 8.7B prior
- (IS) Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki) left its 7-day Lending rate from 6.00% (8th straight pause in its tightening cycle)
- (UK) Oct New Car Registrations Y/Y: 4.0% v 12.1% prior
- (UK) Sept Industrial Production M/M: 0.9% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 1.8%e; highest annual pace since Jan 2011
- (UK) Sept Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.2% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e

- (ZA) South Africa Oct SACCI Business Confidence: 91.1 v 91.4 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Sept Retail Sales M/M: -0.6% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.6%e
- (BR) Brazil Oct FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 0.6% v 0.7%e

Fixed Income:
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.58% vs. $0.0M prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $131.0M in 3-month USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.59% vs. $112.8M prior
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.60%,
FTSE 100 +0.10% at 6,753, DAX +0.4% at 9,040, CAC-40 +0.80% at 4,287, IBEX-35 +0.50% at 9,836, FTSE MIB +0.50% at 19,187, SMI +1% at 8,233, S&P 500 Futures +0.50% at 1,764]

- Market Focal Points: Vestas Wind rises after raising forecast, ING gains over 4% after reporting Q3 results and announcing capital measures, Staffing firm Adecco +5% after Q3 results, Euro Zone Oct Final Services PMI above ests, Thursday's European rate decisions (ECB and BoE)

By Sector
- Financials
[ING INGA.NL +6% (Q3 results, capital measures), Delta Lloyd DL.NL +3% (Q3 profits rose y/y); Experian EXPN.UK -6% (made $850M acquisition, halted buyback)]
- Industrials [Aker Solutions AKSO.NO +6% (Q3 results), Alstom ALO.FR +4% (Q3 results above ests, cost cutting measures), Pirelli PC.IT +3.5% (Q3 results above ests), Fraport FRA.DE +1.5% (reaffirmed FY forecast); Koenig & Bauer SKB.DE -6.5% (profit warning)
- Consumer Discretionary [Adecco ADEN.CH +5.5% (Q3 profits above ests)
- Basic Materials/Resources [FLSmidth FLS.DK +3% (reaffirmed FY forecast, Q3 sales above ests); K+S SDF.DE -4% (credit rating cut to junk)]
- Energy [Vestas Wind VWS.DK +10% (raised FY free cash flow forecast)]
- Technology [ MONY.UK +14% (raised outlook), Axel Springer SPR.DE +2% (Q3 sales above ests)]
- Healthcare [Lundbeck LUN.DK +4% (raised outlook)]
- Eurostoxx 50 sectors [Consumer Non-Cyclical +1%, Industrials +0.8%, Consumer Cyclical +0.4%,Technology +0.60%, Utilities +0.5%, Financial +0.5%, Energy +0.3%, Basic Materials +0.1%,; Telecom -0.6%]

- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Minutes
noted that the decision to hold rates steady was not unanimous. Deputy Governors Ekholm and member Floden again advocated for a rate cut
- Sweden Central Bank Gov Ingves: Hard to justify rate cut based on rate differentials; Economy abroad had largely developed as expected and higher rates needed until macroprudential tools were in place
- Bank of Spain Gov Linde noted that Spanish banking sector needs more cost cuts and capital preservation measures
- Spain Budget Min Montoro stated that he saw more activity in all areas of the economy and that job creation would begin from early 2014
- Germany Environment Min denied speculation that it would scrap discounts on renewables for some industries
- ECB money market survey suggested that interbank trading was stabilizing
- Turkey Central Bank Gov Basci: Might take steps to increase policy predictability; Keep cautious policy stance until inflation was in line with 5% target
- Japan Dep Econ Minister Nishimura: weaker Yen has overall positive impact on economy

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX markets were quiet ahead ahead of Thursday's ECB policy meeting and Friday's release of US Oct payroll data. In the session Major PMI Services (France, Germany and Euro Zone) saw slight upward revisions in final readings help to cement the view that Europe was on its way to recovery. Dealers did add that the PMI readings were still below previous month data
- Dealers noted of a large USD/JPY option expiry at the 99.00 level which corresponded to a key downtrend resistance trend line. Japan FinMin noted that FX intervention couldn be effective against excessive moves.
- The GBP was firmer in the session ahead of key production data. UK Sept Industrial Production beat expectations with highest annual pace since Jan 2011. GBP/USD tested above 1.61. The 10-year Gilt futures reversed earlier gains following the data

Political/In the Papers:
-(ES) Sovereign debt holdings of European banks will not count in the ECBs stress tests in 2014 - ABC
- (ES) EU is probing Spain budget data procedures - Eurostat; Eurostat's visit in Sept included stops in Madrid and Valencia
- (US) Fed's Williams (dove, non-voter): Employment growth has been good but not extremely strong; Wants to see improvement in consumer confidence before the taper; Need to see convincing signs that economy can grow well above trend before reducing bond purchases.
- (US) Two papers to be presented by Fed economists suggest the FOMC could move its unemployment threshold to 6% or even 5.5% (from 6.5%); The papers will be presented at an IMF conference on Nov 7-8.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (SE)) Turkish PM Erdogan visits Sweden PM Reinfeldt in Stockholm
- (CH) Swiss government meeting
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 2.50%
- (MX) Mexico Central Bank 3Q Inflation Report
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 4.0B 1% Oct 2018 BOBL
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Sept Factory Orders M/M: +0.5%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 5.6%e v 3.1% prior
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Sept annual inflation Y/Y: No est v 1.7% prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 2019 and 2028 bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) PM Cameron's Question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (PT) Portugal govt with EU Commission in Brussels
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 1st: No est v 6.4% prior
- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell RUB10B in May 2016 OFZ bond; yield guidance seen between 6.38-6.43%
- 07:30 (US) Challenger Job Cuts: No est v 40.3K prior; Y/Y: No est v 19.1% prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Oct Vehicle Production: No est v 332.0K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 309.9K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 45.5K prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept Building Permits M/M: +6.0%e v -21.2% prior
- 09:00 (US) Treasury Quarterly refunding announcement for 3-year, 10-year and 30-year notes & bonds
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency Flows
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Oct Commodity Price Index M/M: -2.8%e v -2.8% prior; Y/Y: -0.2%e v +2.1% prior
- 10:00 (UK) Oct NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.8% prior
- 10:00 (CA) Canada Oct Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): 51.5e v 51.9 prior; PMI unadj: No est v 59.4 prior
- 10:00 (US) Sept Leading Index: 0.6%e v 0.7% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Vehicle Production: No est v 241.7K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 78.4K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 216K prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
-11:00(US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in bonds
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 5-Year Bonds
- 12:00 (UK) BOE's Kohn
- 12:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Regional Report
- 13:10 (US) Fed's Pianalto speaks on Housing and Economy in Columbus, Ohio
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Oct Employment Change: +10.0Ke v +9.1K prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.7%e v 5.6% prior




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