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Wednesday November 6, 2013 - 19:38:37 GMT
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Looking ahead to the ECB and BOE Thursday. U.S. jobless due
|Looking ahead to the ECB and BOE Thursday. U.S. jobless due|
7 November 2013 00:00 gmt
| CALENDAR: AU- Employment, JP- Lead Indicators, DE- Ind Output, GB- BOE, EZ- ECB, US- GDP, Weekly Jobs, Natural Gas|
| EURUSD 1.3515
|| U.S. 2.64% +1bp
|| North America: Higher|
| EURJPY 133.40
|| Bund 1.75% +1bp
|| DE: DAX: Stronger|
| GBPUSD 1.6080
|| GILT 2.72% +1bp
|| GB: FTSE: Lower|
| USDJPY 98.69
|| JGB 0.62% +1bp
|| Asia Close Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS:AU- Employment, DE- Industrial Output, GB- BOE, EZ- ECB, US- GDP, Weekly Jobless
- The EURUSD is trading below its 20-day moving average of 1.3675 and pivoting its psychological tipping point (1.3500). We feel odds for a December Fed taper remain small. The next probable tightening date is March 2014.
- Eurozone Services PMIs were revised up modestly from their flash estimates but still below their September readings. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- U.K. September production were stronger than expected and has given the GBP a lift. Pressure is mounting on the Bank of England to take a less accommodative policy posture. The data suggest the U.K. could be back in a recovery phase.
- Thursday features a European Central Bank meeting. We see no reason for the ECB to cut its refi rate as its impact would only be mildly psychological. The preference of the ECB might be for "extraordinary actions" of some type. The ECB faces a real dilemma with the Southern tier of Europe virtually in a depression. Germany has started to slow as well..
- The Bank of England and European Central Bank will announce policy decisions on Thursday. Another major event will be the release of October U.S. Employment data on Friday. Canadian October Employment data are due for release on that session as well.
- For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
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Fri 24 Nov
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US- Early Closes
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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