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Looking ahead to the ECB and BOE Thursday. U.S. jobless due
|Looking ahead to the ECB and BOE Thursday. U.S. jobless due|
7 November 2013 00:00 gmt
| CALENDAR: AU- Employment, JP- Lead Indicators, DE- Ind Output, GB- BOE, EZ- ECB, US- GDP, Weekly Jobs, Natural Gas|
| EURUSD 1.3515
|| U.S. 2.64% +1bp
|| North America: Higher|
| EURJPY 133.40
|| Bund 1.75% +1bp
|| DE: DAX: Stronger|
| GBPUSD 1.6080
|| GILT 2.72% +1bp
|| GB: FTSE: Lower|
| USDJPY 98.69
|| JGB 0.62% +1bp
|| Asia Close Mixed|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS:AU- Employment, DE- Industrial Output, GB- BOE, EZ- ECB, US- GDP, Weekly Jobless
- The EURUSD is trading below its 20-day moving average of 1.3675 and pivoting its psychological tipping point (1.3500). We feel odds for a December Fed taper remain small. The next probable tightening date is March 2014.
- Eurozone Services PMIs were revised up modestly from their flash estimates but still below their September readings. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- U.K. September production were stronger than expected and has given the GBP a lift. Pressure is mounting on the Bank of England to take a less accommodative policy posture. The data suggest the U.K. could be back in a recovery phase.
- Thursday features a European Central Bank meeting. We see no reason for the ECB to cut its refi rate as its impact would only be mildly psychological. The preference of the ECB might be for "extraordinary actions" of some type. The ECB faces a real dilemma with the Southern tier of Europe virtually in a depression. Germany has started to slow as well..
- The Bank of England and European Central Bank will announce policy decisions on Thursday. Another major event will be the release of October U.S. Employment data on Friday. Canadian October Employment data are due for release on that session as well.
- For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
|Copyright 2013, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved|
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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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