Thursday November 7, 2013 - 03:55:34 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 07-Nov-2013 -0354 GMT
Dow (15746.88, +0.82%) has surprised by rising sharply before the US GDP today. It may target Resistance at 15800-16000 for now before dipping towards 15400. Nasdaq (3931.95, -0.20%) is well in its uptrend targeting 4000.
Dax (9040.87, +0.35%) is testing resistance near 9065.96 and could see a profit-taking dip to 8900-8800 in the near term.
Nikkei (14247.41, -0.63%) is consolidating in the 14000-14800 region holding well above important long-term Support at 14000. Shanghai (2127.82, -0.55%) is ranged while overall in a downtrend that can test 2100 for now. Whether that holds or breaks will set the trend going forward.
Nifty (6215.150) is looking mixed after coming off from resistance at 6.342.95. It may now fall further towards mid term support near 6100.
Metals consolidative. Crude in downtrend.
Gold (1316.30, -0.11%) continues to consolidate sideways in the near term but could dip towards 1280 in the medium term while below 1345. Silver (21.74, -0.13%) also continues to consolidate with no major movement for now. May remain in the 21-23 region in the near term.
Copper (3.2470) has fallen a bit but is in an overall sideways trend.
Brent (105.10) continues to fall It is testing an interim Support at current levels but could be vulnerable to further fall to 103 if the current Support breaks. Nymex WTI (94.97) rose a bit on increase in gasoline demand in US. However, it remains in an overall downtrend that can test 92 on the downside.
Euro (1.3516) bounced hard from the support of 1.3440-50. If it can manage to sustain above the support of 1.3480-90, it can go towards 1.3550. Resistance seen at 1.3525-30.All eyes today are on the ECB & BOE meets. The decision of these central banks would determine the next course of action for Euro & Dollar Index. Dollar Index (80.48) is going down gradually. Strength will be seen only above 80.70. Support is seen at 80.30-35.
Dollar-Yen (98.62) is facing good selling pressure at 98.75-85. A breakout above 99 can bring a good rally. On the other hand, a break below 98.40 can make it weak and take it to 97.80 & 97.25. EURJPY (133.28) rallied hard as expected. It is facing resistance at 133.70-75. Holding the level of 133.15, it can try to rally again. Below 133.15, support is at 132.85-90.
Pound (1.6074) is correcting from the strong supply zone around 1.6120. The current weakness can drag it to 1.6060 and then 1.6020. Aussie (0.9471) has begun to fall after hitting a major trendline. Resistance is at 0.9550-60 and support is at 0.94-0.9420.
USDINR (62.39) has finally broken out of the band of 61-62. Now it has to stay above 62.50 to reach 63 and 63.70. The rally in Indian 10Yr GOI (8.82%) supports the Dollar bulls.
The US 10Yr (2.64%) has dipped but we can see it go up to 2.75% in the current channel uptrend. Support may be seen at 2.60% for now. The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.03%) has also come down with the dip in the US and Japan yields from the resistance at current levels.
The German 10Yr (1.74%) and the UK 10Yr (2.56%) have risen in the last two days ahead of their Central Bank meetings today. It is expected that the BOE will keep its policy rates unchanged while the ECB may cut the refinance rate by 25bp to 0.50%.
The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.82%) has moved up tremendously and can even move further.
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