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Friday November 8, 2013 - 11:31:03 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China trade balance hits 10-month highs as exports improve; RBA quarterly statement lowers 2014 GDP forecast

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China trade balance hits 10-month highs as exports improve; RBA quarterly statement lowers 2014 GDP forecast
Fri, 08 Nov 2013 0:21 AM EST

***Observations/Insights***
- China October trade surplus rose to a 10-month high, bolstered by a much stronger than expected increase in exports just a month after a surprise contraction. Exports to US accelerated to 6.9% from 4.2%, while exports to Europe slowed to 0.5% from 1.1%. Imports of iron ore - a gauge of China's internal industrial health - rose 20% y/y but fell over 10% m/m.
- RBA quarterly policy statement affirmed 2013 GDP at 2.25% but lowered its 2014 forecast to 2-3% range from 2.5-3.5% prior target. RBA also lowered its outlook for the first half of 2015 but maintained the full year at 2.75-4.25%. In terms of inflation, RBA raised its 2013 projections to 2.5% but cut 2015 to 2% midpoint. Unemployment was seen rising through the end of 2013 and throughout 2014 before starting to ease in 2015.
- China money market tightened again following overnight decision not to inject liquidity in the system. China will release its inflation, retail sales, production, and new loans data for October over the weekend.

***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA OCT TRADE BALANCE: $31.1B V $24.8BE (10-month high); Exports Y/Y: +5.6% v 1.7%e; Imports Y/Y: 7.6% v 7.4%e
- (JP) JAPAN OCT OFFICIAL RESERVE ASSETS: $1.28T V $1.27T PRIOR
- (JP) Japan investors bought net 276.6B in foreign bonds last week (4th straight week of net purchases) vs bought net 1.04T in prior week; Foreign Investors bought net 247.B in Japan stocks v sold net 7.9B in prior week
- (MY) MALAYSIA SEPT TRADE BALANCE (MYR): 8.7B V 6.5BE
- (PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK CUTS REFERENCE RATE BY 25BPS TO 4.00%, NOT EXPECTED

***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies***
- (CN) Daily Shibor fixings: O/N: 3.7610% v 3.7300% prior (2nd consecutive rise); 1-week: 3.9390% v 3.8910% prior (2nd consecutive rise)
- (CN) PBoC may drain net CNY14B next week from market without any other operations - financial press
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1355 v 6.1450 prior setting (highest Yuan setting since Oct 27th)
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy 110B in JGB with maturity up to 1-yr, 200B in JGB with maturity over 10-yr, and 2T in T-bills outright
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$1B in 4.25% 2017 Bonds; avg yield: 3.1431%; bid-to-cover: 3.58x
- (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Assets Week ending Nov 6th: $3.808T (record high) v $3.800T prior; M1 y/y change: 8.8% v 9.0% w/w; M2 y/y change: 6.6% v 6.6% w/w

- USD majors are contained to narrow ranges after a volatile US session coming in the wake of a surprise ECB rate cut and a better than expected US GDP data. EUR/USD remains supported above $1.34 handle, while USD/JPY pared its losses to trade above 98.10 after falling nearly 2 big figures in US hours from its post-GDP highs. Strength in the Yen also weighed on Tokyo stocks, with Nikkei225 index falling about 1% in the afternoon session. AUD was once again in focus, selling off after the RBA quarterly policy statement below $0.9430 and subsequently rising to $0.9480 on better than expected China trade data.

***Speakers/Political/In the Papers***
- (CN) Ex-PBoC adviser Li Daokui: sees China economic growth to slowdown in next 2-3 years - financial press
- (CN) PBoC may drain net CNY14B next week from market without any other operations - financial press
- (CN) China Bank of Communications (BoCom): China non- state owned enterprises (SOE) stock outperformance signals excess optimism
- (CN) China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) may establish investors compensation fund - financial press
- (CN) China Premier Li Keqiang: China economy has to expand 7.2% per year in order to create 10M jobs annually - Nikkei News
- (CN) Barclays economist: China inflation in Oct expected to have risen, led by higher vegetable prices - Shanghai Daily

- (JP) Japan said to be delaying decision on collective self-defence; constitutional review to be put off - Japanese press
- (JP) Japan parliament to ask finance lobby chiefs to appear in parliament - financial press

- (AU) Swaps markets now pricing in a near-30% chance of another RBA rate cut within 6 months - financial press

- (KR) Moody's: South Korea fiscal fundamentals support its AA3 rating and stable outlook

***Equities***
Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT):
- Nikkei225 -1.2%, S&P/ASX -0.5%, Kospi -0.6%, Shanghai Composite -1.1%, Hang Seng -0.6%, Dec S&P500 +0.2% at 1,748, Dec gold flat at $1,309, Dec crude oil +0.2% at $94.40/brl

US markets:
- UBNT: Reports Q1 $0.46 v $0.39e, R$129.7M v $113Me; +13.8% afterhours
- GPS: Reports Oct SSS +4% v +1.3%e; +8.0% afterhours
- ARNA: Expands Marketing and Supply Agreement for BELVIQ (lorcaserin HCl) with Eisai; to receive $60M upfront payment and up to $176.5M in milestones; +6.6% afterhours
- GRPN: Reports Q3 $0.02 (adj) v $0.01e, R$595M v $613Me; Acquires of Korea's Ticket Monster $260M; +1.5% afterhours
- NVDA: Reports Q3 $0.26 v $0.20e, R$1.05B v $1.05Be; Raises quarterly dividend 13% to $0.085 from $0.075; +1.3% afterhours


- PCLN: Reports Q3 $17.30 v $16.20e, R$2.27B v $2.21Be; -1.1% afterhours
- DIS: Reports Q4 $0.77 v $0.76e, R$11.57B v $11.4Be; -1.7% afterhours

- AVG: Reports Q3 $0.52 v $0.47e, R$100.1M v $102Me; -10.2% afterhours
- TRMR: Reports Q3 $0.00 v -$0.02e, R$35.3M v $36.8Me; -29.8% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: DeNA Co Ltd 2432.JP -11.1% (H1 results); Toppan Printing Co Ltd 7911.JP -2.0% (H1 results); Cosmos Initia Co 8844.JP -4.5% (H1 results); THK Co Ltd 6481.JP +8.8% (H1 results)
- Consumer staples: Wilmar International WLIL.SG -2.0% (Q3 results)
- Industrials: Nippon Sheet Glass Co Ltd 5202.JP -2.4% (H1 results); Bridgestone Corp 5108.JP +2.2% (9-month results); Nok Corp 7240.JP +3.4% (H1 results); Johnson Electric Holdings 179.HK +4.7% (H1 results; analyst action); Guangzhou Automobile Group 601238.CN +2.5% (Oct results); China Cosco Holdings Co Ltd 1919.HK -5.3% (exec under investigation)
- Materials: Fuji Seal International Inc 7864.JP +10.8% (H1 results); Fortescue Metals Group Ltd FMG.AU -4.3% (Teck Resources plans to sell stake in Company)
- Financials: ACOM Co Ltd 8572.JP -4.8% (H1 results); Everbright Securities Co Ltd 601788.CN -1.5% (Oct results)
- Technology: Nikon Corp 7731.JP -4.4% (H1 results); Rakuten Inc 4755.JP -2.3% (9-month results); Avex Group Holdings Inc 7860.JP -9.2% (H1 results); Disco Corp 6146.JP +8.8% (H1 results); Toshiba Corporation 6502.JP -2.4% (plans on acquisition)
- Utilities: TEPCO 9501.JP -1.5% (announces emergency staff measures)

 

 

 

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