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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: US October Jobs Report Powers Markets Higher
US Market Update: US October Jobs Report Powers Markets Higher
Fri, 08 Nov 2013 11:15 AM EST
- (CL) Chile Oct CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e; CPI Core M/M: 0.2% v
- (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Nov 1st: $281.0B v $283.0B prior
- (BR) Brazil Sept CNI Capacity Utilization: 82.2%e v 82.0% prior
- (CA) Canada Oct Housing Starts: 198.3K v 190.8Ke
- (US) Oct Change in Nonfarm Payrolls:
+204K v +120Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: +212K v +125Ke; Change in
Manufacturing: +19K v +5Ke
- (US) Oct Unemployment Rate: 7.3% v
7.3%e; Underemployment Rate: 13.8% v 13.6% prior; Change in Household
Employment: -735K v +133K prior
- (US) Oct Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.3%e;
Average Weekly Hours: 34.4 v 34.5e
- (US) Sept Personal Income: 0.5% v 0.3%e; Personal Spending: 0.2% v 0.2%e
- (US) Sept PCE Deflator M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.0%e
- (US) Sept PCE Core M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.3%e
- (CA) Canada Oct Net Change in Employment: +13.2K v +11.0Ke; Unemployment
Rate: 6.9% v 7.0%e; Full Time Employment Change: +16.0K v +23.4K prior; Part
Time Employment Change: -2.7K v -11.5K prior; Participation Rate: 66.4% v
- (MX) Mexico Aug Gross Fixed Investment: -5.4% v -3.0%e
- (US) Nov Preliminary University of
Michigan Confidence: 72.0 v 74.5e
- Investors have shifted into risk-on mode this morning after the release of
the October jobs data. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.53%, the S&P500 is
up 0.73% and the Nasdaq is up 1.12%.
- There has been much gnashing of teeth
this morning over the October jobs report, with the data challenging to parse
given the impact of the government shutdown. According to BLS reporting
standards, the payroll numbers should not have captured furloughs related to
the shutdown but the unemployment rate would have. Accordingly, the non-farm
payrolls number was pretty good: the 204K number crushed the 120K consensus.
Private payrolls grew 212, topping the 125K consensus. The unemployment rate
ticked up to 7.3% from 7.2% in September, which the BLS said partially
reflected the decline in federal government employment. A majority of
analysts called the data very unreliable, although on the whole positive.
- After the open, the preliminary reading of the November University of
Michigan confidence index came in at 72, below expectations and at the lowest
level in the series since December 2011. Both the current conditions and
expectations components were very weak.
- Bond yields have spiked in the wake
of the jobs data. The yield on the US 10-year have rocketed up to 2.75% from
2.60% before the data, while other global yields have followed its lead.
Meanwhile gold spiked lower, dropping 1.84% to trade as low as $1,281. There
has been much speculation about what all this means for a December Fed taper,
although the consensus seems to be that December will still be too early for
action. Several firms have suggested that the taper could come earlier than
expected given another positive jobs reading in November.
- After dropping as low as 1.3300 in the wake of the surprise ECB rate cut
yesterday, EUR/USD retraced to 1.3430, about half way to its pre-decision
level. Today EUR/USD spiked lower after
the jobs data, but not as low as yesterday, hitting bottom around 1.3320.
USD/JPY traded in the 97 handle yesterday and was up to the 98 handle ahead of
the US jobs data, and is trading around 99.10 after the numbers.
- Nvidia is up about 5.5% this morning
after beating earnings expectations in Q3 and raising its quarterly dividend.
There was some concern about its slightly soft forecast for Q4. Note that in
Q3, sales from the company's Tegra mobile chips fell 54%.
- Shares of Cablevision are down nearly
6% despite widely beating earnings expectations in its Q3. Analysts are focused
on the sequential declines across the business, in video, data and voice, for a
total net add drop of about 30K, as well as lower cash flow.
- Twitter is trading below its opening price this morning, down 3% to around
$43.50, but still well above its initial pricing of $26. Analysts continue to
duke it out over whether the company is totally overvalued or completely and
totally undervalued, with little opinion in the middle ground.
- 12:00 (US) World Agricultural Supply
& Demand Estimates (WASDE)
- 12:00 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks on the Economy in Oxford, Mississippi
- 12:15 (EU) EU's Barroso speaks at University of Zurich in Switzerland
- 15:30 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke with member Fischer along with Summers speak
on Financial Crises at IMF
- 16:00 (US) Fed's Williams speaks on Monetary Policy in Los Angeles
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Exports FOB: No est v $5.0B prior
- 20:30 (CN) China Oct CPI Y/Y: 3.3%e v
- 20:30 (CN) China Oct PPI Y/Y: -1.4%e
v -1.3% prior
- China to hold the third plenary session of the 18th Central Committee Nov
- 00:30 (CN) China Oct Industrial
Production Y/Y: 10.0%e v 10.2% prior; IP YTD: 9.6%e v 9.6% prior
- 00:30 (CN) China Oct Retail Sales
Y/Y: 13.4%e v 13.3% prior; Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 13.0%e v 12.9% prior
- 00:30 (CN) China Oct Fixed Urban Assets: 20.2%e v 20.2% prior
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