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Reacting to October U.S. jobs data. Holiday in U.S. and Canada
|Reacting to October U.S. jobs data. Holiday in U.S. and Canada|
11 November 2013 00:00 gmt
| CALENDAR: Far East: CN- CPI Europe: No Major Data North America: US/CA- Holiday|
| EURUSD 1.3420
|| U.S. 2.75% +15bp
|| North America: Higher|
| EURJPY 13.75
|| Bund 1.76% +7bp
|| DE: DAX: Lower|
| GBPUSD 1.6080
|| GILT 2.77% +9bp
|| GB: FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 98.17
|| JGB 0.59% -1bp
|| Asia Close Lower|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CA/US- Holiday
- There is no doubt that the October U.S. employment report (including revisions) was much stronger than expected. The street had been expecting the government shutdown to adversely impact the data, but such distortions were not found in the data. The unofficial market benchmark for economic expansion has been a gain of +200K in jobs. Jobs gains over the Last three months have now been 238K, 163K and 204K. There is no doubt that in the markets that the data put a Fed tapering on the table for consideration at the December FOMC meeting.
- The European Central Bank (ECB) blindsided the markets on Thursday with an unexpected 25bp cut in its refi rate to 0.25%. We had been expecting some sort of ease by the ECB after a run of weak Eurozone and German economic data. The previous week had seen soft German September retail sales data. They came on the heels of weaker than expected employment data, and a softer than expected IFO survey. The broader Eurozone saw rising unemployment and falling (0,70% y/y) flash October HICP inflation. It was the developing deflation in the Eurozone that forced the hand of the ECB to make the token cut in the Refi rate. Its greatest significance was symbolic as it sent a clear message to the markets that the Eurozone economy is in trouble.
- The data schedule for the week sees a number of key U.K. data releases. Otherwise, a the usual weekly U.S. data are due. Key Eurozone inflation data are slated. Keep in mind, recent very weak inflation data may have been behind the unexpected ECB rate cut last week.
- For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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