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Monday November 11, 2013 - 03:48:20 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 11-Nov-2013 -0346 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

EQUITIES
Dow (15761.78, +167.80) bounced sharply towards the upper boundary of the 1000 point range it has been moving for the last few months. A rally above 15850 can take it fast to the major resistance area of 16100-200. Major support remains at 15500 levels. Nasdaq (3919.23, +61.90) has created a Bullish Inside bar. Above 3938-56, it can rally further.

Dax (9078.28,-2.75) is bouncing well. If it can stay above the major support of 8950, it can reach 9120 soon.

Nikkei (14274.47, +187.67) has moved up sharply from our target support zone of 14000. We may see it targeting 14800 if the current uptrend holds. Shanghai (2103.98, -2.15) has fallen below the support at 2100. We see it testing the 21-MA support on the weekly which may help it to bounce back to 2150.

Nifty (6140.75) has confirmed a weekly downtrend. The important support to watch is 6080-6120 below which we can see a major fall. Resistance lies at 6170-90.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1284.90, +0.30) fell sharply below the support at 1290 and is now testing support at 1275. If the support fails to hold we may see it falling towards 1250-1225. Silver (21.32, 0.00) remained stable and is consolidating sideways. We may see it testing the near term support at 21.

Copper (3.2615, +0.0075) is up but it continues to be ranged in the 3.20-3.35 region.

Nymex WTI (94.76, +0.16) is up from the support area of 92.70-93. We see it ranged at 94-96 for the next few days. Brent (105.61, +0.49) is up and is coming up to a resistance near 106. A break above 106 and we may see it testing 108.

CURRENCIES
Euro (1.3357) failed to go above the major resistance of 1.3450-60 mentioned before and dropped near the earlier low. Below 1.3295-1.3318, it can fall to 1.3150-1.32. Holding 1.3318, it can try to rally once more towards 1.3390 & 1.3450. Dollar Index (81.26) is still looking strong but to keep the rally intact, it needs go above 81.52. Failing to do that, it can correct a bit to 80.60-80.80.Major support is at 80.75-81 and resistance at 81.75-82.

Dollar-Yen (99.03) once again got rejected from the main resistance area of 99.80-90. Above 99.80 and then 100.70, we could expect a long trending move to emerge which could take it above 104 and a lot more. Support is at 98.80 and 98.25. EURJPY (132.26) gave a nice bounce from the October low of 131.20 levels in line with our expectation. The important level is 132.60 now, above which it can reach 133.20-50. But staying below 132.60 will bring the weakness back.

Pound (1.6014) dropped to 1.5957 when it failed to clear the strong resistance area around 1.6120 mentioned last week. Resistance is at 1.6060-70 and support is at 1.5950-80.

Aussie (0.9380) continues its fall. It is currently consolidating in a range of 0.9365-0.9395 but looks set for more downside. Major support is at 0.9280-85 and major resistance is at 0.9420-30.

USDINR (62.47) can open with a strong gap up today near 63 on the back of the sustained strength of Dollar Index and the weakness of the other emerging market currencies like Brazilian Real (2.3235). As the weekly trend remains up, the intraday and intra week dips are expected to be bought into. Resistance is at 63 and support is at 62.30-40. If it sustains above 63 it may try to reach our target of 63.70.

INTEREST RATES
Yields are up globally.

US 10Yr (2.75%) has moved up sharply after the US NFP data. Will this bullishness continue or is it just a small rise before a big fall needs to be seen. Japan 10Yr (0.59%) has also moved up, bringing the US10-Y10 yield differential to 2.16%.

The German 10Yr (1.76%) has moved up with a corresponding fall in the Euro (1.3356). The UK 10Yr (2.76%) is also up. We may see it moving up to 2.80% in the next few days.

Indian 10Yr GOI (8.99%) has moved past our target of 8.90% within days of SBI and HDFC raising their lending rates. The rise in the Government yields may result in higher interest rates for public and corporate borrowers. The CPI and IIP data are due tomorrow which may affect the yields largely.

 

DATA TODAY

Chattisgarh Elections - - -


FRIDAY'S DATA
UK Trade Balance
...Actual -9.82 (Bln) ...Previous -9.63 (Bln) ...Expected 9.10 (Bln)

US NFP
...Expected 126.00 K ...Previous 163 K ...Actual 204 K

US Unemployment Rate
...Expected 7.30 % ...Previous 7.20 % ...Actual 7.30%

US Personal Income
...Expected 0.30 % ...Previous 0.46 % ...Actual 0.47%

US PCE Price Index M/M
...Expected 0.30 % ...Previous 0.35 % ...Actual 0.18 %

CA Labour Force
...Expected 12.70 K ...Previous 11.90 K ...Actual 13.20 K

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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John M. Bland, MBA
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