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Monday November 11, 2013 - 10:54:42 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Partial US holiday has participation on the sidelines

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Partial US holiday has participation on the sidelines
Mon, 11 Nov 2013 5:16 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Weekend China economic data was mixed. CPI slightly below expectations but still hits 8-month high, wholesale deflation accelerates for the first time in months, fixed asset investment at 3-month low, while industrial production much better than expected.
- China Oct new yuan loans comes in below expectations
- US markets are partially closed with equities open and Fixed-income closed for Veteran's Day

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Oct Trade Balance: -$10.6B v -$6.8 prior;
Imports Y/Y: -14.5% v -18.1% prior; Exports Y/Y: +13.5% v +11.2% prior
- (CH) SNB Sight Deposits for Week Ended Nov 8th (CHF): 317.8B v 317.6B prior
- (CZ) Czech Oct CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e
- (ES) Spain Sept House transactions Y/Y: -8.6% v -15.4% prior
- (DK) Denmark Sept Current Account Balance (DKK): 14.2B v 14.0Ber; Trade Balance (ex-shipping): 5.9B v 8.0Be
- (DK) Denmark Oct CPI M/M: +0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.5%e
- (DK) Denmark Oct CPI EU Harmonized M/M: +0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.2%e
- (CN) China Oct Yuan Loans (CNY): 506.1B v 580.0Be
- (CN) China Oct M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 14.3% v 14.2%e
, M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.9% v 9.2%e, M0 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.0% v 8.0%e
- (CN) China Oct Aggregate Financing (CNY):0.9B v 1.137Te
- (EU) ECB 2M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 255.0M prior; 62.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 54.7B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (IT) Italy Sept Industrial Production M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: +0.1% v -7.6% prior; Industrial Production WDA Y/Y: -3.0% v -2.9%e
- (NO) Norway Oct CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.4%e
- (NO) Norway Oct CPI Underlying M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8%e
- (NO) Norway Oct PPI including Oil M/M: -0.6% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 3.2% prior

Fixed Income:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 flat,
FTSE 100 +0.1% at 6,712, DAX flat at 9,080, CAC-40 +0.1% 4,264, IBEX-35 -0.30% at 9716, FTSE MIB flat at 18,954, SMI +0.40% at 8,272, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,766]

- Market Focal Points: European equities trade cautiously after US jobs data, M&A in European healthcare sector, Miners lag on lower commodity prices, Mixed trading in European banking sector, China 5-yr interest rate swap hits highs not seen since 2007 amid better than expected industrial production data

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Flybe FLYB.UK +13% (swung to H1 profit); Serco SRP.UK (profit warning speculation)]
- Financials [RSA Insurance RSA.UK -11% (probe into Irish unit)]
- Technology [Software AG SOW.DE +3.5% (broker commentary)]
- Healthcare [Shire SHP.UK +3% (acquisition), Grifols GRF.ES +3% (acquisition)]
- Telecom [British Sky BSY.UK -9.5% (BT agreement related to UEFA), QSC QSC.DE -3% (Q3 profits below ests), Deutsche Telekom DTE.DE -2% (broker commentary)]
- Industrials [Cobham COB.UK -6% (cautious outlook); Imtech IM.NL +5.5% (credit waiver extension), Manz M5Z.DE +4.5% (raised FY sales forecast)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Lonmin LMI.UK +6% (FY results above ests)]
- Energy [Nordex NDX1.DE -13% (concerns related to wind subsidies); Transocean RIGN.CH +3% (agreement with Carl Icahn)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Telecom -1.1%, Basic Materials -0.4%, Industrials -0.20%, Utilities -0.10%, Consumer Cyclical -0.10%; Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.3%, Energy +0.1% Technology flat, Financials flat]

Speakers:
- EU's Rehn
: Germany should remove bottlenecks to spur domestic demand. Rise in domestic demand in Germany should help to reduce upward pressure on Euro exchange rate, easing access to global markets for periphery exporters
- Former Italy PM Berlusconi: PDL party ready to push for changes to 2014 budget. Intention of rival PD party to vote for his expulsion from the Senate amounts to political suicide
- Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) chief Cannata: Have sold total 240B in bonds in 2013 with avg cost of funding at 2.08% for first 10 months
- South Africa Central Bank (SARB)'s Mminele: Excessive currency volatility can undermine economic growth and was building FX Reserves to help moderate volatility
- France Foreign Min Fabius: France is not isolated; other powers agree Iran must dismantle stock of enriched uranium
- IAEA chief Amano: Hope to finalize a technical agreement with Iran during the next trip to Tehran
- Iran and IAEA said to have reached an agreement on roadmap for cooperation to resolve remaining nuclear issues in which Iran to allow inspection of Arak Nuclear Facility and Gachin Mine

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Quiet conditions gave dealer time to reflect on last week's US data and whether Dec was a viable option for potential taper
- The EUR/USD remained below the pivotal 1.3400 level as the pair met selling pressure on upticks still following last week's ECB rate cut and dovish policy rhetoric
- GBP/USD has stabilized above 1.60 ahead of the BoE Quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday as participant ponder whether BOE might signal earlier rate hikes due to resilient employment and domestic demand
- The USD/JPY hovering around the 99 level

Political/In the Papers:
- Germany's CDU and SPD coalition negotiators reportedly reach deal to propose new body under the Ecofin council that would have the power to wind down troubled banks
- 6 of the 23 members on the ECB's governing council opposed last week's rate cut. ECB members from Austria and the Netherlands said to have opposed the rate cut.
- Prior reports had already suggested that the German ECB members opposed the Nov rate cut.
- ECB's Coeure (France): Reiterates view that ECB can cut interest rates again if necessary and can provide the banking system with liquidity
- Moody's revises outlook Portugal's sovereign outlook to stable from negative; maintains rating at Ba3
- S&P lowers EFSF bailout facility rating one notch from AA+ to AA (**Note: follows France sovereign downgrade)
- (US) Fed's Lockhart: Cannot rule out a December taper, but there is some upcoming data that will still have some 'noise'

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CN) China Plenary Session runs until Nov 12th
- Second round of EU-US trade talks (Nov 11-15th) in Brussels
- (DE) German Bundesbank Executive Board's Lautenschlager at OMFIF
- (IL) Israel Central Bank Minutes
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 3.0B in 6-month BuBills
- 05:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Sept Trade Balance: No est v -922M prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency to sell combined 6.8B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50%
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Industrial Production M/M: -0.5%e v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: -0.2%e v +1.6% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.6% prior
- 13:30 (ES) Bank of Spain (BOS) Dep Gov Restoy in Madrid
- 13:30 (EU) EU's Almunia speaks at London School of Economics
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Oct Export Price Index M/M: No est v -2.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v -4.6% prior
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Oct Import Price Index M/M: No est v -2.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -8.1% prior

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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