Wednesday November 13, 2013 - 03:46:57 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 13-Nov-2013 -0345 GMT
Dow (15750.67, -32.43) made yet another attempt to break 15800-50 and failed. But it is still consolidating near the resistance and no sharp rejection is seen, keeping the bulls in the game. Major move will come after breakout from the range of 15500-15850. Nasdaq (3919.92, +0.13) has remained stable. Trading just at the resistance at current levels. Can target 4000 if the resistance breaks.
Dax (9076.48, -31.38) is trying to find support in the zone of 9065-75. Below this zone, it can go to 9055 and 9025. Resistance is at 9104 and 9125.
Nikkei (14532.50, -56.18) is correcting a bit after the huge rally this week. Above 15550-60, the bullish sentiment remains intact. Major resistance lies at 14800. Shanghai (2101.42, -25.35) fell below the support near 2110. The 21-MA support on the weekly is still holding and we may see it going up to 2150.
Nifty (6018.05, -60.75) is in a confirmed downtrend in all time frames as mentioned repeatedly. The worse than expected CPI data is expected to weigh on the index today. Target support zone is at 5950 and 5910. Weakness persists below 6110.
Gold, Silver and Copper took a fall amid fears that the Federal Reserve will start reducing stimulus sooner than expected.
Gold (1269.40, -1.80) has fallen below the support at 1275 and can target 1250-1225 in the current bear mode. Silver (20.69, -0.09) has also fallen below the support at 21. We may see it targeting the crucial long term support near 19 as seen on the weekly and 3-Day line charts if it is unable to recover the loss at the current levels.
Copper (3.2120, -0.0220) also fell below the immediate support at 3.22 as the output of the metal in China, the world’s largest user rose. We can now see it targeting 3.15.
Nymex WTI (93.22, +0.18) has fallen below 94 as the US inventories rose. It is in a channel downtrend and can target 92-91. Brent (106, +0.19) closed lower after registering a high of 107.38. It can target 110 if it moves past 108. The Brent-WTI spread has come up to 12.78.
Euro (1.3448) has broken out of the triangle mentioned, on the upside and is testing the resistance zone of 1.3450-60. A move above this zone can take it to 1.3530-50 and higher.
Dollar Index (81.09) has created a Double Top at 81.46-48 levels and is taking support at the support 81. Strength above 81.52 and weakness below 81.
Dollar-Yen (99.51) hit exactly the major resistance of 99.80 and came back. A breakout could take it to 100.60-90 and then 104.
EURJPY (133.81) reached our target of 133.50 and as long as the price remains above this level, it can reach 135.50.
Pound (1.5892) is dropping like a stone and all rallies are getting sold in line with our expectation. 1.5950-80 has turned into a strong resistance from earlier support. Next support is in the zone of 1.5750-75.
Aussie (0.9304) bearish outlook remains unchanged. The trend remains very weak till it stays below 0.9350-90. Major support area is in 0.9210-30.
USDINR (63.71) can open near 63.80-85 today. Staying above 63.85 could ensure the journey to 64.15-20. The bad CPI data would encourage the Dollar bulls here but the weakness of the Dollar Index can pull them back a bit. Support is at 63.45.
The US 10-Yr (2.76%) remained stable. We may see it ranged at 2.70%-2.80% in the next few days. Japan 10Yr (0.59%) has also remained stable and we expect it to remain at these levels for the next few days.
The German 10Yr (1.79%) has risen and can be ranged at 1.7%-1.9%.The G2-US2 yield differential (-0.24%) has fallen below the support. We may now see it targeting the long term support at -0.3%. The UK 10Yr (2.80%) has remained unchanged after the UK CPI which came out at 2.2%.
Indian 10Yr GOI (9.05%) has risen sharply before the IIP and CPI data yesterday. The IIP at 2% and the CPI at 10.09%. With the inflation coming in at more than 10% we may expect the yields to move up further.
DATA TODAY9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK Unemp
...Expected 7.70 % ...Previous 7.70 %
10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU IND Prodn (MoM)
...Expected -0.20 % ...Previous 1.00 %
10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU IND Prodn (YoY)
...Expected 0.30 % ...Previous -2.10 %
UK CPI Y/Y
...Expected 2.50 % ...Previous 2.70 % ...Actual 2.20%
...Previous 0.60 % ...Expected 3.50% ...Actual 2.0%
...Previous 9.84% ...Expected 10.0% ...Actual 10.09 %
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