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Wednesday November 13, 2013 - 11:16:04 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK employment data continues to improve ahead of key BOE quarterly inflation report

 

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK employment data continues to improve ahead of key BOE quarterly inflation report
Wed, 13 Nov 2013 5:22 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Lack of China reform detail damps Asia markets. China's Third Plenum communique was short on details on how goals would be achieved; China 10-year yield at five year highs of 4.50% as communist party elevated markets to play 'decisive' role in resource allocation
- UK Employment data continues its string of improvement ahead of key BOE quarterly inflation report. Oct Jobless Claims Change: -41.7K v -30.0Ke (12th straight monthly decline); Claimant Count Rate: 3.9% v 3.9%e (lowest level since Jan 2009)
- European officials still trying to talk down the level of the Euro
- Italy BTP auction results steady with 3-year yield at lowest level since Mar 2010


***Economic Data***
- (TR) Turkey Sept Current Account Balance: -$3.3B v -$2.7Be
- (ES) Spain Oct CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.1%e
- (ES) Spain Oct CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.1%e
- (ES) Spain Oct CPI Core M/M: 0.8% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.3%e
- (EU) ECB 12M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 2.0M prior; 57.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 60.2B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands Sept Trade Balance: 3.3B v 3.4B prior
- (NL) Netherlands Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: -6.1% v -0.8% prior
- (UK) Oct Jobless Claims Change: -41.7K v -30.0Ke (12th straight monthly decline); Claimant Count Rate: 3.9% v 3.9%e (lowest level since Jan 2009)
- (UK) Sept Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 0.7% v 0.7%e; Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y: 0.8% v 0.9%e
- (UK) Sept ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.6% v 7.6%e; Employment Change 3M/3M: +177K v +113Ke
- (IT) Bank of Italy Sept Public Finance Supplement: General Government Debt: 2.069T v 2.060T prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Sept Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 0.0%e

Fixed Income:
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.59% vs. $0.0M prior (**Note: 7th straight week without an allotment)
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 4.47B vs. 4.5B-5.5B indicated range in 3-year and 30-year BTP Bonds
- Sold 3.0B vs. 2.5-3.0B indicated in 2.75% Nov 2016 BTP Bonds; Avg Yield 1.79% (lowest since Mar 2010) v 2.25% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 1.41x prior
- Sold 1.468B vs. 1.0-1.5B indicated in 4.75% Sept 2044 BTPs; Avg Yield: 4.99% v 5.19% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.46 x v 1.30x prior
- Sold 1.0B vs. 1.0B indicated in Nov 2018 CCTeu (Floating Rate bond); Avg Yield: 2.11% v 2.32% prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.10%,
FTSE 100 -0.80% at 6,670, DAX -0.20% at 9,057, CAC-40 -0.40% at 4,248, IBEX-35 -0.10% at 9,683, FTSE MIB -0.50% at 18,914, SMI -0.20% at 8,249, S&P 500 -0.10% at 1,764 ]

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets open lower amid declines in Shanghai and share placements, FTSE 100 underperforms on ex-dividends, Big European earnings (ICAP, London Stock Exchange, Hochtief, Sainsbury, GDF Suez, E.ON), Shipping name Maersk raised outlook, Copper declines weigh on resource related firms, Various European banks launch bond offerings, BoE inflation report

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Flybe FLYB.UK -11% (share placement), ProsiebenSat PSM.DE -4.5% (share placement), Bwin.Party BPTY.UK -2% ( Q3 sales -21%), Tesco TSCO.UK -0.90% (broker commentary); Carlsberg CARLB.DK +2% (Q3 profits above ests), Sainsbury SBRY.UK +2% (H1 profits rose y/y)]
- Industrials [Hochtief HOT.DE +2.5% (Q3 profits above ests); Maersk MAERSKB.DK +0.30% (raised outlook)]
- Healthcare [Stada SAZ.DE -5.5% (9-month results below ests), Glaxo GSK.UK -1% (ex-dividend)]
- Financials [3I III.UK -3% (share placement), Barclays BARC.UK -2% (convertible bond offering), Swiss Life (convertible bond offering); ICAP IAP.UK +6% (H1 profits in line), UBI Banca UBI.IT +2% (Q3 profits above ests)]
- Utilities [GDF Suez GSZ.FR -1% (expected write downs), E.ON EOAN.DE -0.40% (9-month results below ests)]
- Technology [Agfa-Gevaert AGFB.BE -6.5% (Q3 profits declined y/y)]
- Energy [Bowleven BLVN.UK -14% (share placement), Shell RDSA.UK -1% (ex-dividend); Drax Group DRX.UK +3.5% (raised outlook)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Utilities -0.7%, Industrials -0.3%, Consumer Cyclical -0.20%, Financials -0.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.1%; Technology +0.4%, Basic Materials +0.3%,Energy +0.1%, Telecom +0.1%]

Speakers:
- France Industry Min Montbourg reiterates the view that he wanted to see the euro weaken
as the currency remained too strong even after the most recent decline
- German Govt advisors (aka. 'wisemen') released its economic forecasts: German 2013 GDP growth slightly raised to+0.4% with 2014 GDP forecasted at +1.6%. It noted that reform process should be safeguarded and economic conditions further improved
- Czech Central bank gov Singer stated that he saw keeping CZK currency around 27.00 for at least 18 months
- Thailand Central Bank Gov Prasarn: No need to intervene in markets at this time as Thai capital movements were normal amid protests. accommodative monetary policy still appropriate
- Morgan Stanley economist Qiao: China PBoC to cut interest rates twice in 2014 by a total of 50bps and again in 2015 by another 25bps. China's Plenum communique set economic reforms in right direction with more comprehensive reforms to be announced in near term

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The EUR/USD came under another spat of verbal intervention from EU officials (both EU and French Industry Ministers) but remained well contained within recent ranges and held above the 1.34 level.
- The GBP/ moved above the 1.59 level following continued improvement in the UK job market ahead of the key quarterly inflation report. BoE's latest view on unemployment should be of particular interest, given the BoE's 7% jobless rate target. BOE seen in paving the way for raising interest rates earlier than prior forecast thanks to stronger-than-expected data over the past quarter. Given the recent string of strong economic data out of the UK many analysts believe that the BoE might start tightening before H1 2015 due to stronger data and investment well ahead of the Q3 2016
- USDJPY has kept the pressure on the upside toward parity amid renewed signs that policy momentum was picking up once again in Japan. Dealers noted that option barriers remained in play at 100 level.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Asmussen: Will aim at inflation at lower than but close to 2%, asset quality review (AQR) of banks will foster confidence; Standard monetary policy has lost some potency in steering market rates.
-(EU) EU Industry commissioner Tajani: Euro is too strong
- (DE) Germany economic advisory panel (Wisemen) to revise FY13 GDP growth outlook higher to 0.4% from 0.3% prior - press; FY14 growth seen at 1.6%; Panel is due to publish annual report Wed.
-(UK) Chancellor Osborne: There are clear signs the UK economic recovery is getting stronger, although there are still plenty of risks facing the economy
- (US) Fed's Lockhart: Tapering QE could very well take place in December; October jobs report was encouraging, but doesn't really change the equation for taper; There should not be a cap on maximum size of Fed's balance sheet.
-(US) Fed's Kocherlakota (dovish, FOMC alternate): Tapering the pace of QE could be a drag on the slow economic recovery; Fed could lower volatility by more clearly addressing QE's costs and efficacy
- (US) US Treasury Sec Lew: Sees a lot of strength in the US economy, housing market is strong
- (JP) BOJ's Miyao: Reiterates Japan economy is recovering moderately; US Fed monetary policy shift would have huge potential impact on global economy.
- (CN) Goldman Sachs: China plenum is insufficient to drive domestic stocks higher
- (CN) BofA/ML: China Plenum Communique is not exciting

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CH) Swiss government meeting
- (EU) EBRD President Chakrabarti speaks at OMFIF Lecture
(DE) German parties hold open-end talks on coalition building
- 05:30 (UK) Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 5.0B in 0.0% Sept 2015 Schatz
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary to Buy Back Bonds
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Sept Retail Sales Constant M/M: 0.3%e v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 3.0% prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.8%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 4.6%e v 6.2% prior; Broad Retail Sales Y/Y: +8.2%e v -0.8% prior

- 06:00 (EU) OECD Sept Unemployment Rate: No est v 7.9% prior
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bills
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 06:45 (GR)) Greece chief economic adviser to Greece PM Mourmouras speaks at Bruegel in Brussels
- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell RUB10B in May 2016 OFZ; Yield guidance 6.45-6.50%
- 07:00 (DE) ECB's Weidmann (Germany) in Frankfurt
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 8th: no est v -7.0% prior
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Minutes
- 08:45 (US) Fed's Pianalto in Philadelphia
- 09:00 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy with IMF officials in Brussels
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Oct Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.7% prior; House Price Index: No est v 159.12 prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (IS) Iceland Oct International Reserves (ISK): No est v 478B prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.0-1.5B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $62B in 4-Week and 52-Week Bills
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 30-Year Bonds
- 12:00 (US) DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook
- 12:00 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves
- 13:00 (ES) ECB's Linde (Spain) in Barcelona
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $24B in 10-Year Notes
- 14:00 (US) Oct Monthly Budget Statement: -$104.0Be v -$120.0B prior
- 18:50 (JP) Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.4%e v 0.9% prior; GDP Annualized Q/Q: 1.7%e v 3.8% prior; GDP Nominal Q/Q: 0.4%e v 0.9% prior

- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
- 19:00 (US) Fed's Bernanke speaks to Town Hall of Teachers
- 19:00 (AU) Australia Nov Consumer Inflation Expectation: No est v 2.0% prior
- 20:00 (KR) Bank of Korea (BoK) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave 7-Day Repo Rate unchanged at 2.50%

 

 

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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