Thursday November 14, 2013 - 03:40:45 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 14-Nov-2013 -0339 GMT
Dow (15821.63, +70.96) closed at the day high, very close to get above 15850 and possibly to 16100-150. The long term resistance clusters of 16100 and 16600 are the major trend decider levels for the next few months. Initial sign of weakness will be a move below 15700. Nasdaq (3965.58, +45.66) has risen moving past the resistance at 3920. It can now go up to our target of 4000 and even higher to 4050-4100.
Dax (9054.83, -21.65) broke the support of 9065-75 and achieved our target of 9025 and more. But the daily candle is a Bullish Hammer finding support at the strong zone of 8950-75, showing buying interest at the lower levels. Holding above 9065-70, it can reach 9120 levels again.
Nikkei (14891.50, +324.34) is enjoying the general strength of the Asian markets this morning. Structurally very similar to Dollar-Yen, it is also close to breaking above the major resistance of 14800-20 and go above 15000. Shanghai (2088.57, 0.63) fell further falling below the 21-MA support on the weekly. It can target the support near 2025 on the daily line chart.
Nifty (5989.60, -28.45) can enjoy a relief rally if it can hold on to the 50 day Moving Average support as it did yesterday. Strength will come only above 6030-45. Support is at 5950-70.
Gold, Silver and Copper rose after Janet Yellen said that the U.S Economy and the labor market conditions must improve before the Fed can begin reducing stimulus.
Gold (1282.80, +14.40) has risen recovering the loss of the fall yesterday. It is trading just above the support at 1275 and can target 1300 if it remains above 1275. Silver (20.78, +0.34) is also up but can target the support 19 as long as it stays below 21.
Copper (3.1795, +0.0200) rose but it can still target 3.15 and lower if it does not move past 3.20.
Nymex WTI (93.84, -0.04) is up marginally. It is in a channel downtrend and can target 95 before falling back to 92-91. Brent (107.30, +0.18) rose. It can target 110 if it moves past the resistance at 108. The Brent-Nymex WTI spread has come up to 13.9.
Euro (1.3473) reached 1.35 in a hurry after breaking out of the triangle mentioned before. As long as it stays above 1.3450, the bullish momentum would be intact and can take it to 1.3525-50. Bearish reversal only below 1.3390.
Dollar Index (80.87) has failed to stay above 81.25 and dropped. The Double Top at 81.46-48 mentioned yesterday has encouraged the bears. If it fails to go and sustain above 80.90-81, it can fall further down to 80.65 and 80.20-30 zone.
Dollar-Yen (99.44) is trading very close to the major breakout level of 99.80 and 100.60-90. A successful move above this zone would open a target of 104 and a lot more fast.
EURJPY (133.94) is showing just an initial sign of tiredness after a good rally from 131.20 to 134.07. But staying above 133.80 will keep the trend firmly up. 133.25-55 will act as a good support. Resistance is at 134.25.
Pound (1.6035) bounced strongly and reached 1.6065. The resistance of 1.5950-80 has turned into support now. But the Pound bulls must cross 1.6070 to keep the bullish momentum intact or it can fall again.
Aussie (0.9362) bearish outlook remains unchanged. It has bounced up from 0.9268 but failed to cross 0.9380 yet. For any sustainable rally towards 0.95-0.9550, it must go and stay above 0.9480.
USDINR (63.30) may open near 63.10-15. It gave the initial weakness signal by moving below 63.60 and 63.45 yesterday. If it trades below 62.98, then it can reach the major support area at 62.25-50. Resistance lies at 63.40-50.
The US 10-Yr (2.69%) dropped below 2.70%. Japan 10Yr (0.59%) remained stable and may continue to trade at these levels for the next few days. The US10-J10 yield differential has come up to a support near 2.12%.
The German 10Yr (1.73%) fell as data yesterday showed that the Industrial Production slid to -0.50, but it is still ranged at 1.7%-1.9%. The UK 10Yr (2.80%) has remained unchanged after the Unemployment came out at 7.6%.
Indian 10Yr GOI (8.91%) fell yesterday after a sharp rally during the week in line with the fall in the Rupee yesterday. It is difficult to predict the next move.
23:50 GMT or 5:20 IST JP GDP
...Expected 0.4% ...Previous 0.9% ...Actual 0.5%
10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU GDP
...Expected 0.20 % ...Previous 0.30 %
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US Trade Balance
...Expected -38.70 $ Bln ...Previous -38.80 $ Bln
...Expected 7.70 % ...Previous 7.70 % ...Actual 7.60%
EU IND Prodn (MoM)
...Expected -0.20 % ...Previous 1.00 % ...Actual -0.50 %
EU IND Prodn (YoY)
...Expected 0.30 % ...Previous -1.47 % ...Actual 0.20%
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