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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: European GDP data comes in mixed but remains optimistic that worst is over for region; Markets eye dovish tone to Fed's Yellen confirmation hearing

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: European GDP data comes in mixed but remains optimistic that worst is over for region; Markets eye dovish tone to Fed's Yellen confirmation hearing
Thu, 14 Nov 2013 5:15 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Nominated Fed Chairperson Yellen testimony leaked and highlighted a dovish tome (unemployment remains too high with inflation running below 2% target and will continue to do so for some time)
- Japan preliminary Q3 GDP slowed to a 3-quarter low but beat estimates (0.5% vs. 0.4%e)
- Bank of Korea ( BOK) holds interest rates steady as expected at 2.50% for the 6th consecutive pause
- Australia Nov Consumer Inflation Expectations comes in at 19% and falls below RBA's target range of 2-3%
- China 7-day Repo Rate rises over 50bps to over 4.27% (biggest rise in 2 weeks) after PBoC did not conduct open market operations drained CNY15B for the week
- European GDP data comes in mixed but still paints a picture that the worst might be over for the region. France registered a contraction (-0.1% v 0.0%e) while Italy stays in recession for the 9th straight quarter.
- UK Retails Sales fall MoM and come in below expectations


***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Oct Wholesale Prices (WPI) Y/Y: 7.0% v 7.0%e (eight month high)

- (FR) France Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.3%e
- (DE) Germany Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.0%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.6%e

- (FI) Finland Oct CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
- (FI) Finland Sept Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -1.2% v -1.6% prior
- (FI) Finland Sept GDP Indicator WD : -0.3% v -0.5% prior
- (FR) France Q3 Preliminary Wages Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.4% prior; Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.1%e
- (FR) France Oct CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.7%e; CPI Ex-Tobacco Index: 125.44 v 125.41e
- (FR) France Oct CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.7%e
- (FR) France Sept Current Account: -3.9B v 3.9B v .6B prior
- (HU) Hungary Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 0.7%e
- (CZ) Czech Q3 Advance GDP Q/Q: -0.5% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: -1.6% v -0.5%e
- (AT) Austria Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.0% prior
- (RO) Romania Q3 Advance GDP Q/Q: 1.6% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 3.5%e
- (EU) ECB 2M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 12.0M prior; 45.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 57.5B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss Oct Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.4% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.2%e
- (NL) Netherlands Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.9%e
- (SE) Sweden Oct Unemployment Rate: 7.3% v 7.4%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 7.9% v 8.0%e
- (IT) Italy Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.1%e (9th straight quarterly contraction); Y/Y: -1.9% v -1.9%e
- (PL) Poland Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.6%e
- (ES) Spain Banks Sept ECB Net Borrowings: 234.8B v 241.1B prior (14 straight monthly decline)
- (UK) Oct Retail Sales Ex Auto MM: -0.6% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 3.1%e
- (UK) Oct Retail Sales incl Auto MM: -0.7% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 3.1%e

- (PT) Portugal Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.0% v -1.0%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Q3 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.3%e
- (CY) Cyprus Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.8% v -1.8% prior; Y/Y: -5.5% v -5.9% prior
- (BR) Brazil Nov FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR150B vs. INR150B indicaed in 2020, 2027, 2030 and 2041 bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stoxx 50 +0.9%,
FTSE 100 +0.8% at 6,683, DAX +0.90% at 9,132, CAC-40 +0.8% at 4,275, IBEX-35 +0.3% at 9,707, FTSE MIB flat at 18,737, SMI +0.50% at 8,281, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,783]

Market Focal Points: Equities rise following comments from Fed's Yellen, Nikkei225 rose by 2%, Big European Earnings (EADS, Burberry, Zurich Insurance, Prudential, K+S, Antofagasta, RWE), EADS declines as quarterly profits below ests, Utilities RWE and Centrica decline after issuing financial reports, Euro Zone GDP data, Upcoming Testimony from Fed's Yellen

By Sector
- Utilities
[RWE RWE.DE -6% (cut FY14 outlook), Centrica CNA.UK -2.5% (cautious margin commentary)]
- Industrials [Bouygues EN.FR +6.5% (positive Q4 outlook); Lenzing LNZ.AT -7% (profit warning), OHL OHL.ES 2.5% (9-month sales declined y/y), EADS EAD.FR -1% (Q3 EBIT below ests)]
- Financials [KBC KBC.BE +4% (Q3 results above ests), Zurich Insurance ZURN.CH +2% (Q3 results above ests)]
- Healthcare [Merck MRK.DE +0.8% (raised outlook)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Trinity Mirror TNI.UK +12% (raised outlook), W/S Atkins +3% (H1 results rose y/y, upbeat outlook), Burberry BRBY.UK +1% (H1 profits in line, raised dividend); Volex VLX.UK -25% (swung to H1 loss)]
- Telecom [Carphone Warehouse CPW.UK +5.5% (reaffirmed outlook)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [K+S SDF.DE +5.5% (Q3 results above ests)]
- Energy [Ophir Energy OPHR.UK +17% (asset sale), Nordex NDX1.DE +5% (reaffirmed outlook, raised order intake target)]
- Technology [Serco SRP.UK -8% (profit warning)]
- Stoxx 50 Sectors [Basic Materials +1.3%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +1.2%, Consumer Cyclical +1.1%, Technology +1%, Industrials +0.8%, Energy +0.7%, Financials +0.8%, Telecom +0.6%; Utilities -2.9%]

Speakers:
- ECB published its Monthly Report along with the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
SMEs stated that it became more difficult to get access to credit in the past six months with Italy, Netherlands and Belgium deterioration in bank loan availability accelerating. Germany was the only country where bank loan availability improved in the April to September period from the previous six months
- France Fin Min Moscovici commented after its Q1 GDP fell short of analyst expectations that France would maintain 2013 GDP forecast of +0.1%
- German Bundesbank presented its annual financial stability review. It noted that bank resilience had improved on year from an easing of tensions on international markets. It warned that low interest environment was placing further strain on German banks and would act on risks to financial stability
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves noted that its current overall picture remained valid and would make an overall assessment of data in December
- World Gold Council (WGC) lowered India 2013 gold demand to 900 tons from 1,000 tons prior. Maintained China 2013 forecast of a record 1,000 ton
- IEA Monthly Report raised 2013 global oil demand growth to 1.05M bpd v 1.00M bpd prior but cut its 2014 forecast to 1.09M bpd v 1.12M bpd prior. Seasonal upswing in demand could put upwards pressure on oil prices in the near-term

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Risk appetite was provided some fuel after dovish Yellen commentary was released ahead of her confirmation hearing later today. The USD and JPY currencies were softer in Asia amid expectations that under her leadership the Fed would stay easy for longer
-The European GDP data showed that growth slowed down sequentially. The weak number out of France was deemed a reflection of its lack of competitiveness as the government is falling behind with reforms. The EUR/USD hovered around the 1.3450 for the bulk of the morning.
- The JPY tested parity during the session for fresh 2-month lows aided by commentary from Japan Fin Min Aso (he stated during Asian hours that it must retain the option to intervene in currency markets). The leaked Yellen testimony and pick up in risk appetite was also a catalyst in its price action.
- The SEK could not sustain gains from better-than-expected Unemployment data and saw the EUR/SEK cross test the 9.0 handle for the first time in almost 18 months. Riksbank Gov Ingves stated that SEK currency was at a level that it should be at

Political/In the Papers:
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Japan must always be ready to send signal to markets it can curb excessive, one-sided forex moves; Must send signal to market when yen becomes too strong or weak.
- (JP) Japan investors bought net 357.1B in foreign bonds last week (5th straight week of net purchases) vs bought net 276.6B in prior week- (EU) ECB's Praet (Belgium): Catalyst for the latest ECB rate cut was Oct inflation data
- (CN) Moody's exec Byrne: told by an unnamed Chinese govt official China may set new GDP target at 7.0% for 2014
- (EU) ECB's Mersch: Financing for small and medium-sized companies is key for the economic recovery, SME access to financing is difficult presently; Need to reorient ECB rules on securitization exposure, promote other forms of non-bank financing.
-(EU) ECB's Linde (Spain): Most indications point to a slow recovery for the EMU and for Spain
- (EU) ECB's Asmussen: Minimum wage debate should be de-politicized
- (DE) President of Germany's IFO Institute Sinn is opposed to the ECB's rate cut
- (IT) Italy Debt Chief Cannata: Not worried about large risk to EU bonds from Fed tapering; investors should expect more action by the ECB in December; Italy could issue a new 10-year bond in 2014; Investor interest in 7-year bond is rising
- (ES) Eurogroup approves Spain exit from the financial assistance program even after failing in 6 of 11 areas in the European Commission's economic imbalance report
- (UK) BoE's Carney: Would be prepared to raise rates ahead of 2015 election if necessary; UK wages unlikely to grow in real terms until mid 2014
- (US) Fed Chair nominee Yellen: Unemployment remains too high; Inflation running below 2% target and will continue to do so for some time - Senate testimony for Thursday confirmation hearings; Labor market and economy performing "far short" of potential; Fed has made significant progress, but has more work to do.
- (US) Fed's Bernanke: Fed is 'missing' on its jobs, inflation mandate; Hopes sooner rather than later US unemployment rate will be back in 5-6% range; Fed will be able to normalize monetary policy once economy has been restored.
- (US) S&P: Pending confirmation of Fed Chairperson Yellen is a positive for the economy

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (DE) German SPD party holds Three-Day Party Convention: Leipzig
- (GR) Greece Q3 Advance GDP Y/Y: No est v -3.8% prior
- 05:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Economic Activity Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.8%e v 1.3% prior
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 2.25B in 4.25% 2036 Gilts;
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell Floating Bonds
- 06:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Nov 8th: No est v $513.9B prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q3 Labour Costs Y/Y: No est v 0.3% prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (SE) Sweden Fin Min Borg in Parliament
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Oct M3 Money Supply M/M: +0.7%e v -0.3% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Oct CPI M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.0% prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2019 Bills
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 330Ke v 336K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.88Me v 2.868M prior
- 08:30 (US) Q3 Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity: 2.0%e v 2.3% prior; Unit Labor Costs: -0.1%e v 0.0% prior
- 08:30 (US) Sept Trade Balance: -$39.0Be v -$38.8B prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.8% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept Int'l Merchandise Trade: -C$1.0Be v -C$1.3B prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Euro-Area Finance Ministers meet in Brussels
- 09:00 (US) Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in Washington
- 10:00 (US) Senate hearing for Fed's Yellen
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Treasury 10-year Tips refunding announcement
- 11:00 (US) feb to buy $2.75-3.50B in bonds
- 12:15 (CH) SNB's Danthine specks in Lausanne, Swisscanto Asset Management
- 12:45 (DE) German Bundesbank member Nagel
- 13:00 (EU) Eurogroup press conference
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $16B in 30-Year Bonds
- 13:45 (UK) BOE's Miles

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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