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Friday November 15, 2013 - 17:08:06 GMT
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ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - DIVERGENT GROWTH SHIFTS POLICY OUTLOOKS

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS  FRIDAY 15 - 21 NOV 2013

 

DIVERGENT GROWTH SHIFTS POLICY OUTLOOKS

 

• FOMC minutes maintain focus on tapering

• MPC minutes to stress unemployment threshold not a trigger for a rate rise

• Euro area survey evidence to maintain concerns of stagnation

 

Divergent growth, divergent policy? ... Releases this week have questioned the pace of growth in key areas. Q3 Euro area growth revived concerns of stagnation, while Japanese growth slowed markedly. In the UK a more buoyant household sector led to significant shifts in the Bank of England’s medium-term projections for growth and unemployment. These different paces are sending diverging messages to policy makers. The coming week sees monetary policy minutes in the UK and US and the BoJ’s policy meeting. Key euro area surveys will help gauge Q4 activity.

 

Updates to guide taper debate ... US monetary policy remains the most likely to shift in the near term. Firmer GDP growth in Q3 and more recent labour market data have raised the possibility of the Federal Reserve ‘tapering’ its ongoing QE operations at the next FOMC meeting. Fed Chair designate Janet Yellen provided no hint over the tapering timing in her recent testimony to Congress. FOMC minutes will be closely watched for further information, given that the previous minutes showed September’s decision was much closer than perceived. Yet October’s meeting came before the latest growth and employment figures and likely anticipated some impact from the previous weeks’ government shutdown. Chairman Bernanke’s speech on Tuesday may be a more timely assessment, as will more recent updates of activity, including the upcoming retail sales report and Philadelphia Fed survey. We expect both to post modest gains on the month. October’s inflation, however, is likely to have dropped further, led by falling oil prices. The probability of a near-term tapering has increased, but overall we doubt that any of this week’s data will signal any urgency and still see the likelihood of tapering starting in 2014.

 

Euro area outlook remains lacklustre ... The ECB has returned to easing policy with its latest refi rate cut. This week’s near stagnation in euro area growth went a long way to vindicating such stimulus. The coming week sees the ‘flash’ estimates of November’s PMIs and the key German IfO survey. Both weakened in October, with the PMI’s suggesting little growth for Q4. We expect little change in the PMI’s in November, although expect Germany to record a slightly firmer reading. With euro area inflation expected at just 0.7% - far below the ECB’s inflation target. A prolonged period of exceptional policy accommodation looks likely, with the possibility of some further easing.

 

BoJ maintains steady path ... Japanese GDP also softened in Q3, rising by half the rate of Q2. But the annualised rate of 2% is far from signaling concern. The Bank of Japan’s upcoming meeting is extremely unlikely to see any change in policy. But its economic outlook will prove more interesting in anticipation of next year’s consumption tax increase.

 

Minutes to stress rate status quo ... The domestic economy has outperformed other regions, leading  to a significant shift in the Bank of England’s medium-term projections. This has led some to speculate that monetary policy could start tightening in 2014. We think the coming week’s MPC minutes will support the argument against this, highlighting that unemployment is not forecast at 7% before mid-2015 (on market rates) and stressing that even this would not automatically trigger a rate rise. The MPC wants growth to erode slack in the economy. If unemployment reaches 7% and the Committee believes such slack persists it is likely to leave rates on hold for longer. We maintain our outlook that rates will remain on hold until 2016. Faster activity is also likely to boost October’s public finances - important as the last official release b before next month’s Autumn Statement.

 

 

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This document, its contents and any related communication (altogether, the 'Communication') does not constitute or form part of any offer to sell or an invitation to subscribe for, hold or purchase any securities or any other investment. This Communication shall not form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This Communication is not intended to form, and should not form, the basis of any investment decision. This Communication is not and should not be treated as investment research, a research recommendation, an opinion or advice. Recipients should conduct their own independent enquiries and obtain their own professional legal, regulatory, tax or accounting advice as appropriate. Any transaction which a recipient of this Communication may subsequently enter into may only be on the basis of such enquiries and advice, and that recipient’s own knowledge and experience. This Communication has been prepared by, and is subject to the copyright of, Lloyds. This Communication may not, in whole or in part, be reproduced, transmitted, stored in a retrieval system or translated in any other language in any form, by any means without the prior written consent of Lloyds. This Communication is provided for information purposes only, and is confidential and may not be referred to, disclosed, reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, to any other person. This Communication is based on current public information.

 

 Whilst Lloyds TSB ank plc (“Lloyds TSB”) and Bank of Scotland plc ("Bank of Scotland") have exercised reasonable care in preparing this material and any views or information expressed or presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the facts and data contained herein.

 

This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds TSB, Bank of Scotland, their directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. Under no circumstances should this material be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product or enter into any transaction. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds TSB or Bank of Scotland Relationship Manager for clarification.

 

Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets and Lloyds TSB are trading names of Lloyds TSB Bank plc, Lloyds TSB Scotland plc and Bank of Scotland plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Registered Office: 25 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7HN. Registered in England and Wales no. 2065. Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Registered Office: Henry Duncan House, 120 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 4LH. Registered in Scotland no. 95237. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound, Edinburgh EH1 1YZ. Registered in Scotland no. SC32700. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority under registration numbers 119278, 191240 and 169628 respectively.

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

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