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Sunday November 17, 2013 - 13:29:28 GMT
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The "Yellen Fed" begins. Slow start to the week.
|The "Yellen Fed" begins. Slow start to the week. |
18 November 2013 00:00 gmt
| CALENDAR: Far East/Europe: No Major Data North America: US- TIC Data, NAHB Index|
| EURUSD 1.3490
|| U.S. 2.71% 0bp
|| North America: Higher|
| EURJPY 135.21
|| Bund 1.71% +1bp
|| DE: DAX: Higher|
| GBPUSD 1.6115
|| GILT 2.75% -1bp
|| GB: FTSE: Higher|
| USDJPY 100.21
|| JGB 0.64% +4bp
|| Asia Close Higher|
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- NAHB Index
- The Yellen confirmation testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last Thursday went very well for her. We assume her nomination will go through the Senate smoothly, unless it gets temporarily held up for unrelated political reasons. The markets came away from the hearing with the impression that the earliest possibility for a Fed "tapering" has now been pushed off at least until March. Yellen has already been confirmed in the market's mind and Chairman Bernanke has already become a "lame duck". We are now in the Yellen era at the Fed.
- Sentiment around Japan and the yen taken a negative turn. There are growing concerns that "Abenomics" have are a failure, USDJPY has returned to back above the 100 line and the Nikkei has gained as a consequence of the weaker currency. Often key in the JPY are times when BOJ and Fed policies are on opposite tracks.
- A Major Focus of data this week will be on key German data in the form of the ZEW and IFO sentiment Surveys. More broadly, the Eurozone and European flash National PMI surveys will be released. U.S. and Canadian retail sales data are due as well. Latest BOJ and FOMC policy minutes are due Wednesday. For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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