Monday November 18, 2013 - 03:38:23 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 18-Nov-2013 -0336 GMT
Dow (15961.70, +0.36%) has risen sharply and may target crucial resistance near 16000-16100 which may push it back towards 15600. Nasdaq (3985.97, +0.33%) is on the upmove and may target 4000 in the coming days.
Dax (9168.69, +0.21%) has risen well above our expectation of 9120. While in the near term uptrend, it looks bullish.
Nikkei (15229.83, +0.42%) has risen sharply in line with the rise in the Asian markets. It may see a little of downward correction before continuing to rise further.
Shanghai (2164.10, +1.32%) has risen well and may target resistance in the 2190-2225 region which if holds may push it back towards 2025.
Nifty (6056.15) has also risen well. A rise above 6030-6035 will give some more strength.
Commodities have all dipped.
Gold (1285.90, -0.12%) dipped a bit but while above 1275, we may still expect a rise towards resistance near 1298-1300. Silver (20.70, -0.15%) has dipped a bit but is overall consolidating sideways. It may target support at 19 while below 21.
Copper (3.1710) looks bullish as it may correct itself upwards after its recent sharp fall. We may expect a rise towards 3.23.
Brent (108.33, -0.16%) has also fallen but while it remains above 108, it may target 110.
Nymex WTI (93.61, -0.25%) seems to be consolidative for now and may continue so for some more time while continuing its near term downtrend. The Brent-Nymex Spread rose up to 14.72.
Euro (1.3487) keeps rallying in a very weak fashion and keeps the possibility of achieving 1.3520-50 alive. But the momentum is not strong and the danger of breaking the supports of 1.3460 and 1.3390 lurks around. In that case we can see 1.33 or lower to 1.31-1.32.
Dollar Index (80.86) remains weak failing to go above 81.50. It is currently stuck in the range of 80.70-81.50 and a break out of this range will bring a decisive move. It has support at 80.35-50 levels.
Dollar-Yen (100.25) has broken out of the multi-month triangle and went above the major resistance of 99.80. Only the resistances of 100.60-90 mentioned before remain to be overcome before achieving our target of 104-105 and perhaps more. Above 101, the move is expected to be vertical and higher targets could be achieved in weeks rather than months. It would be good to buy USDJPY for Importers, with USDJPY Put Option Strike 100. The JPYINR chart (0.63) may either move sideways or fall towards 0.6050, a movement of 4%.
EURJPY (135.17) reached its old resistance area around 135.50. A successful break above this zone would take it to 138-138.50. Supports are at 1.35 and 134.50.
Pound (1.6110) reached the strong supply zone of 1.6130-60. The trend remains up but the momentum shows the initial sign of weakness. A break below 1.6080 would confirm a move towards 1.60. Major resistances are at 1.62-1.6260.
Aussie (0.9378) has created a classic Eve and Adam Double Bottom which will be activated on a break of 0.9386-0.9395. A rise past 0.9400-50 (if seen) will break immediate bearishness, take market up towards 0.96.But, failure to rise past 0.9400 could lead to further bearishness, targeting 0.92 in the near term and possibly lower in the longer term.
USDINR (63.11) may open near 62.60-70 today. The price action near the major support area 62.25-50 will be watched for resumption of strength. Weakness will remain below 63.40-50. We can see Rupee trading in a range of 62-64 for a few sessions. A failure to hold 62 in the next few sessions would be the signal for a lot more downside, which is nor expected right now.
The US 10-Yr (2.71%) is up a bit. Japan 10Yr (0.63%) has also moved up. It is trading below a resistance near 0.65%-0.67% and can come down to 0.55% if the resistance holds. The US10-J10 yield differential (2.08%) is trading just on the support at current levels.
The German 10Yr (1.70%) dipped further. We may see it falling to 1.65% if it does not rebound from here. The UK 10Yr (2.74%) has also dipped and can target 2.70%.
Indian 10Yr GOI (9.02%) rose above 9%.We may see it targeting 9.05% on the upper end or 8.85% on the downside.
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Trade Bal
...Expected 14.30 EUR Bln ...Previous 12.30 EUR Bln
14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
...Expected 21.30 $ Bln ...Previous -8.92 $ Bln
EU CPI (YoY)
...Expected 0.70 % ...Previous 1.10 % ...Actual 0.74%
US Industrial Production
...Expected 0.10 % ...Previous 0.60 % ...Actual -0.10 %
US Capacity Utilization
...Expected 78.30 % ...Previous 78.30 % ...Actual 78.10 %
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